Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"We are involved in this war, whether we like it or not, we are involved. And our friends and family at the water cooler or at the Thanksgiving dinner or whatever it is, we are arguing with people who are espousing and advocating Russian narratives."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:31⏩

Jonathan is wearing one of his new merch tops and thanks Chris from Clockwork Design for designing it.

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US-China Phone Call

🎦 00:38-01:58⏩

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call, their first since November 2023. Jonathan speculates they may have discussed potential common ground and opposition to Russia in relation to the war in Ukraine, and that China may have been pressured to reduce its support for Russia. Jonathan believes that sanctions against Russia are having some effect, particularly in the financial sector, despite loopholes making them difficult to enforce.

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US Politics - Biden vs Trump

🎦 01:58-04:23⏩

A new poll suggests Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump, with a recent surge in support from youth and independent voters since the State of the Union address. Jonathan believes Trump's legal problems are negatively impacting his popularity, particularly among crucial swing voters. Democratic fundraising significantly outweighs Republican efforts, further hindered by Trump's mounting legal fees. It remains to be seen how these developments will affect US support for Ukraine after the November elections.

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US denies support for Ukrainian strikes outside of its territory

🎦 04:23-06:14⏩

US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, reiterated that the US does not support Ukrainian strikes outside of Ukrainian territory, including the recent attacks on Russian oil refineries. Jonathan argues that while Blinken's statement is likely influenced by economic concerns and fears of escalating global oil prices, it also reflects the US administration's persistent anxieties regarding potential nuclear escalation by Russia. Jonathan questions the validity of these fears, pointing to Russia's history of empty threats and inaction following previous escalations in the conflict. He believes this stance demonstrates the Biden administration's continued vulnerability to Russia's nuclear posturing.

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France proposes EU sanctions against Russian disinformation

🎦 06:14-07:47⏩

The Guardian reported that France is proposing EU-wide sanctions against Russian companies involved in spreading disinformation. Jonathan considers this to be a significant development, highlighting the crucial battle against Russian propaganda and the need to promote democratic values within the information space. He acknowledges the difficulties involved in combating disinformation, particularly amongst friends and family who may subscribe to Russian narratives, emphasizing that this is a fight against Russia itself and that everyone consuming and sharing information is involved.

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France supports Ukraine's right to self-defence

🎦 07:47-09:58⏩

In contrast to the US stance, France asserts that Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities fall within the framework of legitimate self-defence. Jonathan sees this as a further indication of France's growing independence from the US in terms of diplomacy and security, potentially leading to a shift in the global balance of power. He speculates that this could result in the EU becoming less reliant on the US and more assertive in its foreign policy decisions, which may have ramifications for the US's global hegemony.

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France proposes sending troops to Ukraine

🎦 10:09-12:43⏩

France has proposed sending troops to Ukraine to provide training and support. The proposal, which was met with concern from the Biden administration due to the risk of escalation, signifies France's increasingly proactive role in the conflict. Jonathan observes that France appears to be emerging as a pivotal player in the Ukrainian conflict, demonstrating a commitment that surpasses many other Western nations. He questions whether Macron's stance, seemingly driven by moral conviction, may also serve long-term political goals, potentially bolstering support for his centrist party. He invites the perspectives of French citizens on Macron's handling of the situation.

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Ukraine signs security agreement with Finland and discusses economic cooperation with Japan

🎦 12:43-15:03⏩

Ukraine and Finland have signed a long-term security agreement. Additionally, Zelensky has been engaging with the Japanese Prime Minister to discuss economic cooperation. Jonathan highlights the global significance of these developments, suggesting that Japan and South Korea's increased support for Ukraine forms part of a broader geopolitical strategy in the Pacific region. He outlines the complex dynamics at play, with China vying for influence alongside Japan, South Korea, and Australia, all while the US seeks to maintain its presence in the region through alliances like AUKUS and Five Eyes. Jonathan believes that these alliances may lead to Australia assuming a more prominent role in the Indo-Pacific, allowing the US to focus on the more immediate concerns of Ukraine and Taiwan.

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Polish farmers continue to block Ukraine border

🎦 15:03-15:33⏩

Polish farmers are resuming their blockade of the Ukrainian border, indicating that recent talks between Poland and Ukraine have failed to resolve the ongoing dispute.

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Russia's Novatek suspends Arctic LNG2 project

🎦 15:33-16:24⏩

Sanctions and a shortage of gas tankers have forced Novatek, Russia's largest producer of liquefied natural gas, to halt production at its Arctic LNG2 project. Jonathan uses this as an example of the effectiveness of sanctions, acknowledging their imperfections but emphasising the ongoing effort to strengthen and enforce them. This is further evidenced by the detention of a Russian ship, Atlantic Navigator 2, by German customs for carrying wood and enriched uranium destined for the US in violation of EU sanctions.

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Russian Billionaires thrive despite sanctions

🎦 16:28-19:33⏩

Despite the impact of sanctions and the ongoing war, the number of Russian billionaires on the Forbes list has reached a record high of 125, representing a 15% increase. Jonathan draws attention to the stark contrast between the wealth of Russia's elite and the poverty experienced by many ordinary Russians, citing videos depicting the poor living conditions in cities like Saratov. He argues that this disparity is a direct result of Russia's kleptocracy, with oligarchs siphoning off wealth that should be invested in society. Jonathan criticizes this system, suggesting that it is morally reprehensible and that the wealth accumulated by individuals like Putin should be used to improve the lives of all Russians.

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Zara reopens in Kyiv

🎦 19:33-21:03⏩

Clothing retailer Zara has reopened in Kyiv, marking the first time since the start of the war. Jonathan notes that this event has been widely discussed as a positive sign of Kyiv's relative safety and a return to normalcy, despite the ongoing conflict. He reflects on the strange tension that exists in Ukraine, where the bustling capital can feel a world away from the devastation on the front lines.

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Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Hungary introduce "foreign agent" laws

🎦 21:03-24:08⏩

Georgia's ruling party is reintroducing a controversial "foreign agents" bill, similar to legislation passed in Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Hungary. The bill, withdrawn last year following public outcry, aims to restrict foreign influence in domestic affairs. Jonathan argues that while these laws are often presented as measures to protect democratic processes from external interference, they primarily serve to consolidate power for ruling parties and stifle dissent. He points to Hungary's use of such laws to target individuals like George Soros, whom he believes has been unfairly demonized by right-wing figures like Tucker Carlson, who Jonathan alleges has close ties to the Hungarian government. He criticizes the spread of anti-Soros propaganda, highlighting the philanthropist's significant contributions to Ukraine's defence.

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UK urged to increase defence spending

🎦 24:08-28:33⏩

UK Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, has called for increased defence spending at a NATO meeting in Brussels, urging allies to boost support for Ukraine and ramp up defence production. Jonathan points out the irony of this statement, given the UK's own lagging defence spending as a percentage of GDP. He attributes this to the Conservative government's focus on domestic issues ahead of a challenging re-election bid. Jonathan highlights analysis from defence expert Shashank Joshi, who criticizes the UK's lack of comprehensive war planning, revealing a concerning lack of preparedness in the face of growing global threats. He expresses doubt that the current political climate will allow for sensible foreign policy or strategic planning.

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Belarus prepares for war

🎦 28:33-30:34⏩

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has announced that Belarus is preparing for war, framing it as a necessary measure to ensure peace. However, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski remains defiant, stating that Poland is ready for any potential threat. Jonathan notes Poland's significant military investments and defence spending, which he believes places them in a strong position to counter any aggression from Belarus.

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Wrap up

🎦 30:34-30:50⏩

Jonathan concludes another long video and signs off with a reminder to enjoy a cup of tea.

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