Ukraine Conflict: 5-Day Full Frontline Update

"The reason I've got this legend open on the left here is that when one colour is on top here, under the pins, I guess tab. It means that there are more of them than the one below. And what's very significant here, basically with Andrew Perpetua's pins, there are over half of the pins are blue, which means are signifying Ukrainian advances."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War Frontline update for 09/02/2025 - a 5-day update. He's drinking tea (of course!). He points out that he has the map legend open because it's significant that there are more blue pins than red pins on the maps from both Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps which means that there are more Ukrainian advances or at least more pins to indicate different advances. He wonders if he can say that because things are slowing down.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Eastern Front Overview: Slowed Advances and Notable Developments

🎦 00:18-02:34⏩
Jonathan observes that Russian advances have slowed down in the Prokrosk area on the eastern front over the past five days. Looking at the maps from both Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak maps, the advances are far less than we have seen previously with only very small changes e.g. a couple of fields north and south of Dachine and the rest of Dachine, and a small advance up a tree line towards Andriivka. He speculates that there must be a significant change to explain the lack of movement. Jonathan highlights that the Oskil River poses a challenge for Ukrainian forces, particularly around Varychna, where Russian troops have crossed and are moving westward. However, he notes that Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Kursk, stabilizing the western side and making gains in the east.

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Russian Culmination: Evidence of Equipment and Personnel Shortages

🎦 02:34-04:31⏩
Jonathan questions if Russia is beginning to culminate due to their use of unarmored vehicles - a possible sign of equipment shortages. He speculates that Russia is also facing personnel shortages, while acknowledging that Ukraine is also likely experiencing similar challenges. He predicts that Russia may deploy additional troops, potentially from North Korea, to maintain their offensive and pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire agreement favorable to Russia. Jonathan notes reports and videos showing injured Russian soldiers, some on crutches, being sent back to the front lines, highlighting the desperate measures being taken.

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Kursk Sector Update: Ukrainian Gains and Russian Claims

🎦 04:31-06:01⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Kursk sector, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as a source. He analyses Russian milblogger claims of ongoing fighting southeast of Sudzha, near Makhanovka, Cheskoslova, Konopelka, and Fanasivka. While some milbloggers assert that Ukrainian forces control Cheskaya Konopelka and Fanasivka, others claim a Russian presence in Cheskaya Konopelka. Jonathan examines the discrepancies between Andrew Perpetua's and Suriyak Maps' depictions of Ukrainian gains in the area, noting the latter's more generous assessment of Russian progress. He questions the accuracy of Russian claims, suggesting that some commanders may be inflating their successes to receive bonuses.

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Kursk Sector Analysis: Assessing Ukrainian Capabilities and Frontline Stability

🎦 06:01-06:50⏩
Jonathan analyses Ukrainian capabilities in the Kursk sector, questioning the sustainability of their maneuvers and whether they have sufficient resources to continue their advance. He notes that the situation appears to have stabilized at Malaya Lochnia, with the ISW also reporting relative stability along the Kursk Front over the past five days.

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Oskil River and Luhansk: Russian Advances and Contested Claims

🎦 06:50-08:53⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the Russian presence across the Oskil River, particularly near Topoli, where they have crossed and are potentially advancing along the bluff area. Further south, he acknowledges significant Russian gains, corroborated by both Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps, as they push westward. He highlights conflicting reports regarding Dvorichny, with some sources claiming a continued Ukrainian presence despite Russian assertions of control. Jonathan references the ISW's report, which supports the claim of a partial Ukrainian presence in the northern part of the settlement. He advises caution when interpreting Suriyak Maps' depiction of the area, which he finds overly favorable to the Russian perspective, emphasizing the importance of relying on visual evidence and acknowledging the potential for misinformation from Russian sources, including the MOD.

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Kramina to Turney: Incremental Russian Gains and Battlefield Assessments

🎦 08:53-09:41⏩
Jonathan points out minor Russian gains west of Makiivka, north of Kramina, noting visual evidence of destruction in the area. He observes that the situation around Turney remains relatively unchanged, with Andrew Perpetua's mapping now aligning more closely with Suriyak Maps' depiction. The ISW describes the area as relatively stable, although Jonathan hesitates to use the term "stable" given the ongoing conflict.

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Chaviv Yar: Russian Control and Defensive Measures

🎦 09:41-10:45⏩
Jonathan mentions a two-kilometer stretch of road in the Chaviv Yar area, possibly the T0504 highway connecting Ivanovska and Stupochki, where Russians have installed chicken wire netting to protect their vehicles from drone attacks. He notes visual evidence confirming Russian control of the factory in Chaviv Yar. He expresses disappointment over the loss of this strategically important area, describing the current state of Turney as a "hellscape" due to the extensive destruction.

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Turetsk: Limited Russian Progress and Strategic Considerations

🎦 10:45-11:21⏩
Jonathan observes limited Russian gains north of Turetsk, speculating that they may be consolidating their positions, regrouping, or shifting their focus to other areas where they can maximize their resources.

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Prokrosk Salient: Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Strategic Importance of the C0504 Highway

🎦 11:21-12:06⏩
Jonathan analyzes the northern sector of the Prokrosk front, noting a mixed bag of territorial changes as Russian forces attempt to secure control of the strategically vital C0504 highway. This highway, connecting Kostantynivka (a key staging ground for both Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut) has been under Russian fire control. Suriyak Maps suggests that the Russians are making progress in their efforts to interdict the highway, while Andrew Perpetua's map shows potential Ukrainian gains in the area.

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Prokrosk Salient: Russian Flag Incident and Ukrainian Counteroffensive

🎦 12:06-13:56⏩
Jonathan highlights a video showing a failed Russian attempt to hoist their flag over Turetsk, where Ukrainian forces thwarted the propaganda stunt using drone and artillery fire. Shifting back to Prokrosk, he references a Russian source claiming that Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive in the salient, attacking from three sides to cut off the Russian advance. He cites Andrew Perpetua's recent analysis, which identifies Prokrosk, along with Kursk and Kamiansk, as key areas of Ukrainian counterattacks. The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Prokrosk is supported by both video footage and Russian sources, who express surprise at the Ukrainian operation, describing it as unexpected given ongoing ceasefire negotiations.

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Prokrosk Salient: Ukrainian Territorial Gains and Strategic Implications

🎦 13:56-16:05⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian gains in the Prokrosk salient, including the potential recapture of Kotlyna, although this is not yet reflected in either Andrew Perpetua's or Suriyak Maps' updates. He suggests that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to encircle Russian troops in Kotelina and sever the "neck" of the Russian salient by attacking across from Oleksandrіvka towards Pishchane. He highlights the significance of these Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly given the recent change in military command in the area and the possibility of Russian culmination. Jonathan examines the reported Ukrainian advance in Pishchane, noting that both mappers corroborate the claim that Russian forces have been pushed back from the town center. He expresses optimism about these developments, while acknowledging the need to monitor the situation closely as the conflict unfolds.

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Karakivka and Drivka: Minor Russian Advances and Shifting Logistical Significance

🎦 16:05-17:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the relatively minor Russian advances in the areas of Karakivka and Drivka, highlighting the strategic importance of Drivka as a logistical hub. However, he emphasizes that the significance of these locations has diminished due to the shifting front lines. As Russian forces have been pushed back, the importance of Andriivka as a logistical hub has decreased, with other locations now serving as more crucial nodes for supply lines.

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Kamianske: Ongoing Activity and Lack of Mapping Updates

🎦 17:08-18:08⏩
Jonathan concludes the frontline update by mentioning significant activity in Kamianske, despite the lack of updates on the maps from either Andrew Perpetua or Suriyak Maps. He notes that Andrew Perpetua mentioned Kamianske as an area of Ukrainian counterattacks in his analysis, but the ISW report does not provide detailed information on the situation there. He cites a Russian milblogger who claims that a Ukrainian attack involving armored vehicles in the Stepova and Kamianske area was unsuccessful.

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Wrap up

🎦 18:08-18:59⏩
Jonathan wraps up by expressing hope that the update provided a clearer understanding of the current situation on the front lines. He encourages viewers to connect the information presented in the frontline update with his previous "hits and losses" and "geopolitics" videos for a more comprehensive understanding of the conflict. After a brief, humorous aside about his map malfunctioning, he thanks his audience for their support and encourages them to subscribe to his channel. He jokes that he is aiming for 50,139 subscribers, a "golden number," which would allow him to take a well-deserved tea break.

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