Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russians are now forced to use Neva cars, so-called pride of the auto industry, for they're using these for assaults."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video - a Ukraine War Update for 1st October 2024. He's going to be doing a live stream at 3pm about the US Elections and also mentions his upcoming livestream with Brendan Kelly the following day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:18-05:22⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 30/09/2024, which are substantial in several categories.
- Personnel: 1,370 (over Jonathan's 1,300 threshold)
- Tanks: 9 (daily average, showing continued attacks and attrition)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles: 44 (well over double the daily average)
- Artillery Systems: 33 (almost double the daily average)
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 73 (very high number)
- Special Equipment: 1
- Drones: 98 (tactical level, including Orlans, Zhalas, and Supercams)
Jonathan notes that these figures demonstrate Ukraine's effective targeting of Russian assets. He then moves on to the figures from Andrew Perpetua which also suggest a 5:1 loss ratio in Russia's favour. Jonathan details the losses from both sides.
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Russian Personnel Shortages
🎦 05:22-06:25⏩
Jonathan highlights the death of Major "Small Cotton" Yuri Alexandrovich, head of a border post on the Russia-Georgia border who was killed on 5th August in the Kursk region. His death, combined with the call-up of 133,000 conscripts (40,000 per month), indicates a severe shortage of soldiers in the Russian army. To address this, Russia is drafting troops from various locations, including abroad and border areas. Despite personnel shortages, Russia persists in attacking weak points like Vuhledar and Prokrosk and attempting to counter Ukrainian advances in Kursk.
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Russian Propagandist Injured
🎦 06:25-07:16⏩
Russian propagandist Denisis Kaluga of Izvestia was injured by an explosion while riding on the back of a quad bike in Chelsea. He sustained shrapnel wounds, burns, and fractures to both legs. Jonathan notes an increase in footage emerging from the frontlines.
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Ukrainian Drone Warfare
🎦 07:16-09:19⏩
Jonathan observes a surge in footage depicting equipment being destroyed, particularly in areas like Kursk, Vovchansk, Peschani, and Prokrosk. Ukrainian forces are effectively utilizing drones for this purpose. They are being used extensively and are replacing artillery to some extent. This effectiveness is evident in footage shared by Kvist P, showing numerous Russian assets being destroyed by Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region. Jonathan cites an incident in Vovchansk where Russians attempted an assault with 17 MTLBs, 3 tanks, and over 100 paratroopers. Ukrainian forces, including the 57th Assault Brigade, repelled the attack, destroying 16 MTLBs and hitting one tank. Jonathan highlights that this incident is supported by footage from sources like Max 24, confirming the accuracy of reported figures.
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Russian Equipment Shortages
🎦 09:19-11:59⏩
Jonathan questions the sustainability of Russian losses, noting a shift in their tactics and equipment. He notes a pattern of Russia resorting to suboptimal solutions due to a possible equipment shortage, citing:
- Golf buggies: Used for troop and supply transport across trenches (previously unseen).
- Motorbikes: Employed for assaults (unconventional and risky).
- Neva cars: Used to transport assault groups to attack lines (as per Noel Reports), with infantry disembarking before reaching the front line (indicates a lack of suitable vehicles).
Jonathan suggests that Russia's use of civilian vehicles like Neva cars is a sign of desperation and a shortage of appropriate military equipment.
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Drone on Drone Warfare
🎦 11:59-13:39⏩
Jonathan presents two examples of drone-on-drone warfare:
- Drone Downing with IED: WarTranslator shares footage of a Ukrainian drone precisely dropping an IED on a Russian Mavic drone, effectively neutralizing it.
- FPV Drone Crew Kill Marks: Footage displays the kill markings of a Ukrainian FPV drone crew, indicating a significant number of downed Russian reconnaissance drones, including Zhalas, Supercams, and Orlans.
These examples highlight Ukraine's success in countering Russian reconnaissance efforts, potentially explaining the recent decrease in reported hits on high-value Ukrainian targets.
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Ukrainian Partisans and Sabotage
🎦 13:39-16:05⏩
Jonathan reports on the activities of the Ukrainian partisan group "Atesh", who are significantly disrupting Russian logistics.
- Kursk Railway Sabotage: Atesh partisans destroyed a relay cabinet on a vital railway line in the Kursk region, disrupting the transportation of equipment and ammunition to the front line.
- Crimea and Zaporizhzhia Operations: Atesh operates extensively in these regions, identifying and reporting targets to Ukrainian forces.
- Target Identification and Strikes: Atesh plays a vital role in providing intelligence, enabling Ukrainian forces to effectively target Russian assets. An example is the identification of a Buk-M1 SAM system and ammunition depots in Donetsk, leading to their subsequent destruction.
Jonathan emphasises Atesh's impact on the battlefield through both direct sabotage and intelligence gathering.
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Russia on Fire
🎦 16:05-18:15⏩
Jonathan covers a series of fires in Russia:
- Perm Chemical Plant Fire: A significant fire erupted at a chemical plant in Perm, potentially caused by a short circuit in a cooling tower pump. Tim White suggests that safety regulations are poorly enforced in Perm, a major city, increasing the risk of such incidents.
- Rostov Region Fires: Multiple fires are reported in the Rostov region, including a landscape fire near railway tracks and potentially another at a chemical plant. While some fires appear to be wildfires, others could result from Ukrainian strikes, especially given Rostov's status as a frequent target.
- Freight Train Derailment: A freight train derailment is reported, possibly connected to the fires in the Rostov region.
- Wildfires and Evacuations: A wildfire in the Tambov region led to the evacuation of a village, with significant damage reported. Jonathan notes the strain on Russian emergency services as conscripts, typically involved in firefighting during wildfire seasons, are currently deployed in the war. A state of emergency is declared in Rostov due to wildfires exacerbated by hot, dry weather and strong winds.
Jonathan speculates that some fires, particularly in Rostov, may result from Ukrainian strikes on logistical targets, adding to the strain on Russian resources already stretched by the war.
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Distance Strikes in Ukraine
🎦 18:15-19:54⏩
- Shahed Drone Interceptions: Ukrainian air defences successfully shot down 26 out of 29 Shahed drones launched by Russia. The remaining three drones were neutralized through electronic warfare, showcasing Ukrainian preparedness.
- Aerial Bombing in Zaporizhzhia: Jonathan condemns the Russian aerial bombing of a high-rise building in Zaporizhzhia, causing substantial damage.
- Kherson Market Attack: Jonathan strongly denounces the Russian rocket attack on a crowded marketplace in Kherson, resulting in seven civilian deaths. He labels it an act of genocide and plans to discuss it further with Brendan Kelly in an upcoming live stream.
Jonathan expresses his disgust at Russia's continued targeting of civilians.
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Russian Military Aircraft Interception
🎦 19:54-21:06⏩
- Unsafe Interception over Alaska: North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) released footage of a risky interception involving a Russian Su-35 fighter jet exhibiting unsafe and unprofessional conduct in Alaskan airspace. Jonathan expresses concern over the incident.
Russian Defections and Sabotage
🎦 21:06-22:30⏩
- Pilot Defection after Okhmadyt Hospital Strike: According to the Daily Telegraph, a Russian pilot defected to Ukraine following the bombing of the Okhmadyt children's hospital in Kyiv. The pilot reportedly contacted a Ukrainian chatbot to share sensitive information about his unit.
- GUR Operations: Sir He Kuzan, former advisor to the Ministry of Defence, revealed details of Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) operations, including the recruitment of Danilo Alfayorov, who facilitated the surrender of 11 Russian soldiers and orchestrated the bombing of a Russian army headquarters in 2024. The GUR also orchestrated the sabotage of the Serpukhov-Russist missile trough, carried out by a defecting Russian sailor.
Jonathan emphasises the significance of defections and partisan activities within Russia, posing increasing challenges to Putin's war efforts.
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Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Blackout Risk
🎦 22:30-23:06⏩
- Substation Attack: Ukraine's Energy Ministry reports a Russian attack on a substation supplying power to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, putting it at risk of a blackout. Workers are working to restore full power.
Vuhledar Update
🎦 22:58-24:33⏩
- Russian Advance in Vuhledar: Russian forces have advanced further into the northwestern part of Vuhledar, consolidating their control.
- Possible Ukrainian Presence: While reports suggest Ukraine no longer has a presence in Vuhledar, Jonathan mentions unconfirmed information from a contact indicating potential resistance.
- Concerns about Ukrainian Troops: Jonathan voices worry over the situation of Ukrainian troops in Vuhledar, acknowledging the possibility of encirclement and highlighting the challenges they face, including limited supplies, constant attacks, and delayed rotations.
Jonathan expresses hope for the safe withdrawal of any remaining Ukrainian troops and acknowledges the difficult situation in Vuhledar.
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Wrap up
🎦 24:33-25:31⏩
- Jonathan concludes the update, mentioning his upcoming live stream on the US elections and future streams featuring Brendan Kelly and Daniela & Erlin from Percheny to discuss Italy's aid to Ukraine.