Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"It is more important that we screw over aspects of our border, of our nation, that we do the wrong thing to solve any problem we have here so that we do the right thing in screwing over Joe Biden."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War Update for 26th January 2024.

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Germany announces significant military aid package for Ukraine in 2024

🎦 00:14-01:27⏩

Germany has announced a substantial military aid package for Ukraine, encompassing:

• IRIS-T SLM air defence systems
• Gepard anti-aircraft guns
• Artillery systems and 230,000 rounds of ammunition
• 80+ Leopard 1A5 tanks
• APCs, engineering machines, and bridge layers
• 450 armoured vehicles
• Mine clearance systems
• Drones, radar, and reconnaissance systems

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Germany's Rheinmetall to build new ammunition factory, potentially in Lithuania

🎦 01:27-03:12⏩

Jonathan discusses Germany's increased commitment to supplying Ukraine with ammunition. German Defence Minister Pistorius, in an interview with Bild, revealed plans for a new ammunition factory being built by Rheinmetall, potentially in Lithuania according to reports in the Baltic Times. This follows news that Rheinmetall plans to increase its production of 155mm artillery shells tenfold by the end of 2024, from 80,000 to 700,000. There are also plans to increase production capacity for powder used in the manufacture of shells.

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Germany clarifies its role in armoured vehicle and drone coalitions

🎦 03:12-03:50⏩

Jonathan clarifies that, contrary to earlier reports, Germany is not leading an armour coalition but rather considering joining coalitions led by other countries. It appears that misinterpretations or mistranslations led to the initial reports. Despite this, Germany remains a crucial provider of aid and support to Ukraine.

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France sends 2 more M270 LRUs to Ukraine

🎦 04:06-04:13⏩

France has supplied Ukraine with two additional M270 LRUs (Multiple Launch Rocket Systems) to bolster their artillery capabilities. These systems are similar to HIMARS.

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Sweden sends over 1,100 tonnes of aid to Ukraine

🎦 04:13-04:35⏩

Jonathan reports that France has now sent a total of four M270 LRUs to Ukraine. The M270 LRU is a modernized version of the American M270, equipped with an upgraded firing control system that enables it to launch new types of guided rockets. In addition, Sweden has sent over 1,100 metric tons of aid to support Ukraine's energy sector since the start of the conflict.

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UK and Sweden join drone coalition for Ukraine

🎦 04:35-05:15⏩

Great Britain and Sweden have joined a drone and electronic warfare coalition for Ukraine, which was initially set up by Ukraine and Latvia. The UK's recent commitment of £2.5 billion in military aid, of which £200 million is dedicated to drones, will play a significant role in supporting this coalition.

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Footage of a Russian drone

🎦 05:15-05:59⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a Russian drone taking off with an ATGM (Anti-Tank Guided Missile) unit mounted on it. He remarks on the drone's initial shakiness during takeoff but notes that it appears functional. The drone is then shown firing its weapon.

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North Korea continues to supply Russia with ammunition: Frontline Intelligence Insight report

🎦 06:04-09:42⏩

Jonathan discusses a report by Frontline Intelligence Insight that has been tracking logistical routes, delivery numbers, and storage points for ammunition being transported between Russia and North Korea. The report estimates that between September and December 2023, North Korea delivered approximately 1.57 million artillery shells to Russia, comprising both 152mm and 122mm ammunition. The report details how the ammunition is shipped in 20-foot shipping containers from North Korea to the Russian port of Dunai, near Vladivostok, and then transported by train to storage locations, including Tikhoretsk (close to the Ukrainian border), Mozdok (over 600km from the border, potentially storing ballistic missiles), and Yergolitskaya airfield (in Rostov Oblast, relatively near the Ukrainian border). The report suggests that Russia is likely to continue increasing its domestic ammunition production while supplementing its immediate needs with foreign supplies, including those from North Korea.

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Jonathan analyses the impact of ammunition supplies on the course of the war

🎦 09:42-11:25⏩

Jonathan analyses the impact of ammunition supply on the trajectory of the war. While Russia's reliance on North Korean ammunition highlights its production challenges, Ukraine faces similar limitations. The key question is whether Russia, potentially supported by Iran, North Korea, and possibly China, can outproduce Ukraine's allies in terms of artillery shell manufacturing. Jonathan argues that even if Ukraine's allies cannot outproduce Russia and its allies, simply narrowing the production gap could significantly benefit Ukraine. He points to Ukraine's resilience and battlefield successes in 2022 and 2023, despite Russia's superior firepower, as evidence that even a marginal improvement in the ammunition supply situation could be a game-changer for Ukraine.

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Hungary unlikely to block EU aid package

🎦 11:25-12:37⏩

Jonathan discusses the EU's proposed €50 billion aid package for Ukraine. Despite initial concerns that Hungary might veto it, recent developments suggest that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is likely to support the package. This follows Slovakia's decision to back the aid, driven by concerns over domestic protests against the pro-Russian government of Robert Fico. Fico's change of stance, suggesting he will not oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU or the aid package, while also expressing a willingness to sell arms to Ukraine, is seen as a positive development. It seems that both Orbán and Fico are prioritizing their political and economic interests, given the potential repercussions of aligning too closely with Russia.

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Hungary's position on Sweden joining NATO and the potential use of Article 7

🎦 12:38-14:05⏩

There are still concerns about whether Hungary might attempt to veto the EU aid package at a later date. However, five European officials and diplomats have suggested that other EU countries are prepared to invoke Article 7, which would strip Hungary of its voting rights, should they choose to obstruct the aid package. The potential for such a move might deter Orbán from jeopardizing the aid to Ukraine. Jonathan concludes that the situation remains fluid, but there is a possibility that the EU could demonstrate greater unity on this issue going forward.

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Pentagon urges US Congress to approve Ukraine funding requests

🎦 14:05-15:05⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to US politics and the Pentagon's efforts to secure funding for Ukraine. The Pentagon is urging Congress to approve funding requests for Ukraine, emphasizing the global significance of such support. The Pentagon's concern stems from Russia's alliances with Iran and North Korea, seeing this as a direct challenge to the US-led world order. Jonathan highlights the frustration within the Pentagon as Congress hinders efforts to counter what it perceives as a threat to US military and strategic hegemony.

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US Politics: Republicans divided on Ukraine funding

🎦 15:05-17:54⏩

Jonathan delves into US politics and its impact on Ukraine funding. A recent report suggests that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell might be withdrawing his support for a deal that would combine enhanced border security with additional aid for Ukraine, due to pressure from Donald Trump. McConnell, despite being a staunch supporter of Ukraine, reportedly expressed concerns that the political landscape has shifted. With Trump campaigning on a hardline immigration stance, McConnell, according to reports, stated that he doesn't want to undermine the "nominee" by agreeing to a border deal that Trump might perceive as a win for Biden. McConnell's reported comments, made during a Republican conference lunch, have caused a stir amongst GOP senators, with some denying that McConnell is backing down from the deal, attributing his stance to a desire to maintain party unity, especially in an election year.

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Is a border deal essential for Ukraine aid?

🎦 17:54-20:05⏩

Jonathan continues his analysis of the political situation in the US, highlighting the role of JD Vance, a Republican senator from Ohio. Vance has stated that while securing the border is a shared goal, there are differences of opinion on how to achieve it. He acknowledges the dilemma McConnell faces, caught between different factions within the Republican party. The proposed package, linking border security with Ukraine aid, has created a divide between the Republican old guard and the MAGA factions. Jonathan emphasizes that a fundamental rule in an election year is to avoid issues that split the party, but the dominant sentiment among some Republicans appears to be to prioritize denying Biden a political win. Jonathan then cites Senator James Lankford, the lead Republican negotiator on the border agreement, who stated that there is no viable path for Ukraine aid without a border deal. This suggests that decoupling Ukraine aid from the border bill is not a realistic option.

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Jonathan's take: Republicans don't want the border issue resolved

🎦 20:05-22:59⏩

Jonathan provides his perspective on the situation, asserting that the Republicans have no genuine interest in resolving the border issue. He identifies two primary reasons for this stance:

• Denying Biden a political victory: A successful border deal would be perceived as a win for the Biden administration, potentially bolstering his chances of re-election.
• Preserving a campaign issue: Resolving the border crisis before the November election would deprive the Republicans of a key campaign issue, forcing them to focus on less potent topics.

Jonathan argues that the Republicans are content to exploit the border issue for political gain, even if it means obstructing progress on a critical national security concern. He emphasizes that this strategy is detrimental to Ukraine, as it jeopardizes crucial aid. Jonathan anticipates criticism from Trump supporters, but he remains resolute in his assessment, believing that the Democrats have genuinely negotiated in good faith, while the Republicans prioritize political maneuvering. He cites Trump's public statements on social media, demanding a "perfect" border deal, as evidence of their unwillingness to compromise.

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Trump's stance complicates matters further

🎦 22:59-25:29⏩

Jonathan continues to dissect the political complexities surrounding the border deal and its implications for Ukraine. He highlights a Wall Street Journal article, a publication generally considered to be right-leaning, that criticizes Trump's hardline stance on the border and its negative impact on Ukraine funding. Trump's insistence on a "perfect" border deal, as expressed in his social media posts, has empowered those within the Republican party who are opposed to any agreement that could be perceived as a win for the Biden administration. Jonathan cites an article from Euromaidan Press, which suggests that Trump's opposition to the border deal further complicates an already precarious situation for Ukraine. Adding to the complexity, Mitch McConnell, in a closed meeting with Senate Republicans, admitted that the political dynamics surrounding the border issue have shifted. He acknowledged that while the border used to unite Republicans and divide Democrats, the situation has reversed due to Trump's influence. McConnell reiterated his concern about undermining Trump's position by agreeing to a deal that the "nominee" might disapprove of. Jonathan, citing sources like Jake Sherman on the Hill, underscores that McConnell's change of heart is directly linked to Trump's desire to make immigration a central theme of his 2024 campaign. He argues that Trump's stance has empowered MAGA Republicans to obstruct any progress on the border issue, jeopardizing both Ukraine aid and a solution to a pressing domestic problem.

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McConnell backtracks on doubts about Ukraine aid, but doubts remain

🎦 25:29-26:33⏩

Jonathan notes that, despite McConnell's earlier hesitation, he has since walked back his doubts about the Ukraine aid deal, claiming that he fully supports it and will not allow political considerations to hinder assistance to Ukraine. However, Jonathan, along with other senators, remains skeptical, believing that McConnell's true stance might be different. Adding to the confusion, Senator James Lankford, the lead Republican negotiator on the border agreement, recently stated that he hopes to present a deal in a matter of days, not weeks. However, he had made similar statements before, casting doubt on the timeline for a potential agreement.

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Josh Hawley and Mitt Romney's opposing views

🎦 26:33-29:43⏩

Jonathan contrasts the views of Republican Senators Josh Hawley and Mitt Romney on the border deal and its implications.

• Josh Hawley, in an interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News, expressed his hope that the deal is dead, asserting that there's no reason to support policies that would empower Biden. Jonathan criticizes Hawley's stance, interpreting it as prioritizing political maneuvering over national interests.
• Mitt Romney, in contrast, has publicly criticized Trump for undermining the border deal to score political points against Biden. Romney emphasizes the urgency of the border crisis, arguing that a presidential candidate should be focused on finding solutions rather than exploiting the issue for personal gain.

Jonathan concludes that Romney's statements provide further evidence that the Republicans are deliberately obstructing the border deal, prioritizing their political ambitions over the needs of the American people and Ukraine.

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The White House continues to pursue border talks

🎦 29:43-31:15⏩

Despite Trump's interference, the White House, according to Politico, remains committed to finding a bipartisan solution to the border crisis. Jonathan points out that Biden is acutely aware of the need for action and is approaching the negotiations in good faith. He cites White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton, who reaffirmed the administration's commitment to working with Congress to address the border issue, emphasizing that political considerations should not hinder progress on this critical issue. However, Trump's continued opposition to any border deal that could be perceived as a victory for the Biden administration, as evidenced by his recent statements, continues to cast a shadow over the negotiations.

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J.D. Vance's stance on US aid to Ukraine

🎦 31:15-33:15⏩

Jonathan discusses J.D. Vance's skepticism towards US aid to Ukraine. Vance has publicly questioned the transparency of US funding to Ukraine, suggesting that there is a lack of accountability and that corruption might be a concern. Jonathan refutes these claims, arguing that US aid to Ukraine is subject to unprecedented levels of scrutiny and transparency, precisely to address concerns about potential misuse of funds. He points out that similar levels of transparency and accountability were absent in previous US military interventions, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Jonathan criticizes Vance, accusing him of perpetuating harmful myths and disinformation to appease his base, despite knowing that his claims are unsubstantiated. He finds Vance's stance particularly egregious given his military background, which should make him more aware of the importance of supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

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Slovakia protests, Baltic support for Ukraine

🎦 33:15-34:40⏩

Jonathan shifts the focus away from the US political landscape, turning his attention to other geopolitical developments related to Ukraine.

• Slovakia: Jonathan mentions the ongoing mass demonstrations in Slovakia against the new pro-Russian government. The protests, which have been growing in size, might be influencing Robert Fico's recent policy reversals.
• Baltic States: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis' visit to Kyiv signals the Baltic states' continued and unwavering support for Ukraine.
• Hungary: Ukraine is actively working to arrange an official visit for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, which would be the first such visit in 14 years. This diplomatic effort highlights Ukraine's commitment to engaging with all its neighbors, even those with complex relationships with Russia.

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The critical importance of US aid and the dangers of political gamesmanship

🎦 34:40-35:51⏩

Jonathan concludes by reiterating the crucial importance of the US aid package for Ukraine. He acknowledges that while the Biden administration has faced criticism for its cautious approach to providing aid, the current political gamesmanship surrounding the border deal is particularly concerning. He criticizes those who prioritize political point-scoring over Ukraine's urgent need for support, emphasizing that their actions have real-world consequences, potentially costing lives and further destabilizing the global order.

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Wrap up

🎦 35:51-35:51⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.

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