Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:15⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War Update News video for 05/02/2024 and advises this will focus on Military Aid and Geopolitical news.

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Poland to finance joint production of defence articles

🎦 00:15-00:39⏩

Poland grants a loan to Ukraine to jointly produce defense equipment for the Ukrainian armed forces. The loan's value, and specific items it covers remain undisclosed. Jonathan observes this is positive as Ukraine need as much aid as they can secure.

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Finland: Nammo Lapua ammunition factory to increase production fivefold

🎦 00:39-02:50⏩

Jonathan reports that a Finnish ammunition plant will increase production fivefold due to the war in Ukraine, attributing this to Europe's pledge to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells by March. He notes the ambitious target may not be met, but the development signifies a significant ramp-up of European production. He uses the analogy of "trying to turn a tank" to highlight the complexities of increasing artillery ammunition production. Long-term commitments and contracts are required from governments, to justify investment by the private sector in expanding capacity and securing resources.

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Ukraine to receive F-16 fighter jets and long range (300-500km) missiles: Analysis and implications

🎦 02:50-06:37⏩

Citing General Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Jonathan reveals Ukraine will receive F-16 fighter jets and missiles with 300-500km range as part of future military aid packages. He analyses the implications of these game-changing weapons, observing that F-16s will be able to operate from behind the frontlines, making them less susceptible to Russian air defences. However, their vulnerability will lie in their vulnerability whilst on the ground. Jonathan argues that Russia will likely retaliate by targeting the airbases hosting F-16s with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and Iranian Shahed drones. This necessitates robust air defence systems, such as Patriots and SAMP/Ts, around the bases, similar to the protection provided at Starokostiantyniv airbase. To mitigate the threat, he suggests Ukraine will need to scramble jets quickly upon detecting incoming missiles or drones. However, this tactic is complicated by the unpredictable flight paths of these weapons, which can be altered mid-flight. Jonathan acknowledges this is a significant development for Ukraine, but emphasises the importance of strategic deployment and protection of these valuable assets. Jonathan speculates that the missiles with 300-500km range referred to by General Syrskyi may be AGM-158 JASSMs, highlighting their stealth capabilities, extended range, and potent armor-piercing warheads. However, he expresses uncertainty as the standard JASSM has a range exceeding 900km and invites viewer input on the specific missile type.

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Ukraine: Over 600 female fighters on the frontlines

🎦 06:37-08:04⏩

Jonathan highlights that over 600 women are actively engaged in combat roles on the front lines. In the 108th Territorial Defence Brigade, women fulfil roles as medics, signalers, cooks, and administrators, but also serve in combat positions from infantry to battalion commanders. Additionally, there are female snipers active in the conflict. Jonathan believes this is essential given the need for soldiers. He acknowledges those who express concerns about women on the front lines but argues for a pragmatic approach, suggesting women could backfill other positions to free up more men for combat roles, underlining that increasing the number of boots on the ground is paramount for Ukraine.

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UK: Lord Cameron says Putin has suffered a "huge strategic defeat"

🎦 08:04-11:09⏩

Jonathan cites former British Prime Minister, Lord Cameron, who asserts that Putin has already endured a significant strategic defeat and urges an end to talk of a stalemate or time working against Ukraine. Jonathan agrees, highlighting Russia's desperation to control the narrative. He cautions against focusing solely on recent setbacks, such as the potential replacement of Valery Zaluzhnyi and ammunition shortages, which may suggest Russian dominance. Jonathan argues a wider perspective reveals a different picture; the Black Sea fleet has been significantly degraded and pushed back to Novorossiysk, the Russian Air Force is largely ineffective beyond dropping unguided bombs, and Russia has experienced substantial losses of artillery, air defence systems, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and troops. He asserts that Russia is clinging on "by their fingertips" facing potential domestic discontent due to the conflict's unpopularity and the unknown fate of many Russian soldiers. Jonathan concludes that Russia has lost, posing the crucial question: can Ukraine achieve a decisive victory, reclaiming Crimea or will there be a stalemate where both sides lose?. He advocates for greater emphasis on a positive vision of a Ukrainian victory.

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Germany: Rise of pro-Russia, far-right political groups, funded by Russia

🎦 11:09-13:26⏩

Jonathan observes that Russia is fostering relationships with far-right European political parties, notably Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is gaining traction. While there have been some encouraging demonstrations against this trend, Jonathan warns that the Kremlin exploits societal divisions, leveraging issues like immigration to sow discord within nations and providing support, both financially and through amplification of their messages, to far-right groups. He argues that the far-right, more than any other group, is most effective at sowing chaos and discord, making them a useful tool for Russia and China. He expresses concern over this strategy, recalling a personal experience where a friend, aligned with him on most issues, was swayed by disinformation spread by pro-Russian commentator Gonzalo Lira. This highlights the pervasiveness and danger of disinformation in shaping opinions, and Jonathan emphasises the importance of supporting Ukraine's victory. A Ukrainian victory on the battlefield paves the way for a counteroffensive in the information war, enabling the world to reclaim control of the information sphere.

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USA: Tucker Carlson's visit to Moscow sparks criticism

🎦 18:25-20:57⏩

Jonathan reports that Tucker Carlson's trip to Moscow, where he intends to interview Putin, has drawn criticism, with speculation that the interview will be stage-managed to favour Putin. Jonathan finds it improbable that Putin would permit a critical interview, questioning Carlson's motives and branding him a "useful idiot" at best. He expresses the view that the FBI should investigate Carlson's activities. Jonathan plays a clip of Carlson being praised as the "best American journalist" by a Russian man in Moscow, highlighting the absurdity of Carlson's claims that he merely wants to observe and talk to people. He sarcastically mocks Carlson for visiting a country actively engaged in a war of aggression, where journalists face potential arrest and where numerous war crimes have been committed.

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EU: 13th sanctions package on Russia will not include new import bans

🎦 20:57-21:44⏩

The European Commission has decided against imposing new import bans on Russia in its 13th round of sanctions, aiming to avoid internal disputes among EU members. Instead of targeting major industries or imports, the focus will be on smaller entities and individuals, closing loopholes, and ensuring stricter enforcement of existing sanctions. Jonathan suggests that some believe the potential for sanctions may have reached its limit, necessitating a shift towards effective implementation and closure of any remaining loopholes.

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USA: Trump boasts of collaborating with Iran during missile attacks on US Troops

🎦 21:44-24:57⏩

Jonathan expresses his disdain for Fox News and its anchor Maria Bartiromo before delving into a recent interview with Donald Trump. During the interview, Trump claimed he collaborated with the Iranian Supreme Leader, which allowed over 100 US troops to be injured in Iraq. Trump boasted that he had Iran "in check" and recounted an instance where Iran called him to warn about an impending attack, assuring him the strike would not target the interior of a US base. Jonathan is astounded by Trump's decision to publicly disclose this sensitive information, arguing that even if such collaboration were justified, it should not be shared openly. Jonathan criticizes Trump's tendency to be swayed by flattery, highlighting his past interactions with Putin and Xi Jinping as examples. He draws a parallel to Trump's desire to retain letters from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which were among the documents found in his possession. Jonathan concludes by reiterating his belief that Trump is not a suitable candidate for president, acknowledging that his opinion differs from many.

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Turkey: Erdogan to discuss Ukrainian grain exports with Putin

🎦 25:12-25:42⏩

President Erdogan of Turkey plans to discuss a new mechanism for exporting Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea with Putin, who is scheduled to visit Turkey on February 12th. Jonathan notes that this issue is significant and that Ukraine derives substantial income from grain exports. He observes that Ukraine's grain exports have rebounded to pre-war levels despite the absence of a dedicated corridor, suggesting that a new agreement might not be critical for Ukraine's economy.

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Georgia: Authorities claim to foil explosives smuggling operation from Odessa to Russia

🎦 25:42-26:26⏩

Georgian authorities say they have intercepted a shipment of explosives en route from Odessa to Voronezh in Russia. According to Georgia's State Security Service, the cargo, totaling 14kg of C4 explosives disguised as batteries, was intended for terrorist attacks. Seven Georgians, three Ukrainians, and two Armenians are allegedly involved, with Ukrainian politician Andriy Derkach named as the mastermind. It remains unclear if any arrests have been made, and Ukraine has yet to comment on the incident. Jonathan deems this incident plausible, suggesting that Ukrainians are likely engaged in similar operations.

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USA: Border bill likely to fail, jeopardizing aid to Ukraine

🎦 26:26-30:08⏩

Jonathan briefly touches upon the border bill, previously discussed in a separate "Breaking News" video, stating its chances of passage are slim. According to Mike Johnson, the bill was "dead on arrival," as Republicans remain opposed to any compromise and uninterested in engaging in negotiations. This renders the weeks spent on crafting the bill futile, as Republicans had no intention of supporting it. Jonathan expresses his frustration, asserting that the Republicans' stance effectively blocks aid to Ukraine by linking it to the border bill. Despite removing funding for Israel from the bill, Republicans refuse to do the same for Ukraine aid, a move Jonathan perceives as aligning with Putin's interests. He criticizes the decision to prioritize domestic issues over the global crisis.

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USA: Republicans accused of hypocrisy over aid to Israel

🎦 30:08-30:52⏩

Jonathan highlights the hypocrisy in the Republicans' stance, emphasizing that they approved a separate $17.6bn aid package for Israel, exceeding both Israel's request and the Democrats' proposed amount, while simultaneously holding Ukraine aid hostage to the border bill. Jonathan believes this demonstrates their true intention is to obstruct aid to Ukraine and brands their justifications as lies. He labels the Republicans as "moral monsters" for prioritizing domestic concerns over the global crisis, particularly as the world is "burning." He criticizes their unwillingness to address both the border issue and the war in Ukraine, arguing that supporting Ukraine should be a priority even as they pursue their domestic agenda.

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Wrap Up

🎦 30:52-30:52⏩

Jonathan concludes by suggesting viewers watch his previous "Breaking News" video for further details on the border bill and expresses his continued anger at the situation. He signs off with his customary "toodlepips."

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"Oh, did I tell you I also love invasions of other countries? Oh, did I tell you I love war crimes? Turns out I'm a really big fan of war crimes."