A Prigozhin Mutiny Theory: An Accidental Coup?
Table of Contents 📖
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"Prigozhin was an accidental coup leader. And at the end of this, his adventurism, we have two outcomes which are terrible for him. He's forced into exile in Belarus, a boring, frustrating exile, which completely sidelines him. And he's accidentally, I think, humiliated his patron."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses the recent mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC, noting the lack of clarity around what took place, why it ended, and who benefited. He mentions the tension between Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD), particularly Defence Minister Shoigu and head of the general staff Gerasimov.
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Prigozhin's March and the Russian Military's Response
Thomas Tyner, a commentator, points out that during Prigozhin's march, no Russian generals came out to support either Putin or Prigozhin, and no soldiers showed up to stop Wagner units as they passed by various military bases. This suggests that Putin's regime is brittle, and if a popular general decided to stage a coup, the divisions that remained neutral this time might not do so again.
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Speculation on Prigozhin's Intentions and the Accidental Coup
Jonathan plays a clip from the "Ukraine: The Latest" podcast, where James Kilner speculates that Prigozhin's mutiny was an accidental coup. Prigozhin, who hates the Russian MOD, was upset about a decree requiring all PMCs to sign contracts putting them under MOD control. Kilner suggests Prigozhin planned a publicity stunt to show Wagner's strength and preserve its independence, but the rebellion succeeded more than expected, with Wagner units quickly capturing Rostov-on-Don and moving towards Moscow. Realizing he lacked the necessary political support to take Moscow, Prigozhin was forced to negotiate a deal, accidentally humiliating Putin in the process.
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The Aftermath and Implications
The podcast participants discuss the aftermath of the mutiny, noting that Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus and lost his influence with Putin. They suggest the winners of the situation may be those who hated Prigozhin's close relationship with Putin, such as Shoigu and Gerasimov. Dom, another commentator, points out that the pressure on Bakhmut in recent months may have contributed to Prigozhin's actions, as he witnessed the horrors of the conflict firsthand.
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Alternative Theory and Putin's Position
Stefan Heinsmann offers an alternative theory, suggesting that Prigozhin climbed down because he realized winning would mean becoming responsible for an unwinnable war, effectively a suicide mission. Heinsmann believes Prigozhin has powerful backers and is being "parked" until the war is over, at which point he may return to the stage. He argues that Putin is no longer in control and is being kept in place until the war is definitively lost, so he can be blamed for the defeat.
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Wrap up
Jonathan invites viewers to share their thoughts on the theories discussed and what they believe Prigozhin hoped to achieve with the mutiny. He also mentions upcoming disruptions to his video schedule due to electrical work at his house.
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