Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Storm shadows are as significant as HIMARs in being a game changer."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest update on the Russia-Ukraine war for June 27, 2023. He is struggling a bit with MS fatigue today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
According to Ukrainian General Staff figures, Russian losses were high in the last 24 hours:
- 590 liquidated personnel (down from previous day)
- 5 tanks, 14 APVs (higher than previous day)
- 28 artillery systems, 2 MLRS (another horrific day for Russian artillery)
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 10 drones, 2 cruise missiles
- 21 vehicles and fuel tanks (significant as Ukrainians hammer Russian logistics)
- 6 pieces of special equipment (well above average, likely excavators, ISR, EW)
Ukrainian Drone Strikes
A montage of Ukrainian FPV drone footage shows them hammering various Russian equipment like tanks. The small racing drones carry RPG-7 warheads (2-2.5kg) which can cause substantial damage. Sometimes multiple strikes are needed to fully destroy a tank.
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Ukrainian Losses
The Ukrainians are also losing equipment, with footage showing a number of lost Bradley IFVs, likely being used as the main vehicle in preparatory attacks due to their mobility and firepower. Some brutal drone footage (not shown) reveals a Ukrainian soldier losing a leg to a landmine, and Russian phosphorus munitions being dropped on them.
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Voronezh Airstrike
Footage shows a massive explosion from an airstrike on a road used by civilian trucks in Voronezh, Russia. Questions are raised about whether this was targeting Wagner forces, and the danger posed to civilians. The philosophical difficulties of warfare are highlighted, especially with Russian-on-Russian fighting.
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Crimean Railway Sabotage
Another sabotage attack damaged the Crimean railway in the Kirovskyi district, likely by Ukrainian partisans using an explosive device. Repairs are estimated to take 8 hours. While useful to disrupt Russian logistics, railway lines are quick to fix compared to bridges.
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Russian Planes to Washington
Three planes from the Russian special flight squadron took off from Moscow, with one showing a destination of Washington DC. It's unclear if this is a routine diplomatic flight or something more significant. OSINT sources are tracking increased Russian plane activity to Minsk.
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No Signs of Russian Nuclear Escalation
The White House states they see no indication that Russia plans to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant or use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. National Security Spokesperson John Kirby says they are monitoring radioactivity closely and the threat is not imminent. This robust statement may be intended to calm nerves.
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Frontline Update
- Ukrainian troops continue to advance in the east and south, with successes reported in the Bakhmut direction and near Rivnopil.
- The Russian advance is being restrained in the Lyman, Avdiivka and Marinka directions.
- Both pro-Ukrainian sources report Ukrainian gains near and inside Bakhmut city.
- Prigozhin claims only 1-2% of Wagner mercenaries agreed to join the regular Russian army, arguing it would make them ineffective. Integration will be difficult due to animosity.
- There is ongoing fighting and a Ukrainian bridgehead on the Dnipro River by the Antonivka bridge near Kherson. Russians attempted a failed counterattack.
Military Aid
- The US is preparing a $500 million aid package including 30 Bradleys, 25 Strykers, ammo for HIMARS, Patriot, Javelin, Stinger. They had an extra $6 billion to spend due to undercounting.
- Poland will send thousands of guns and millions of rounds of ammo to Ukraine. An Abrams tank repair center will open in Poland.
- Denmark is phasing out its F-16s 2 years early to transfer them to Ukraine faster. They have been providing a lot of aid.
- Ukraine's Minister for Strategic Industries has significantly increased domestic production of artillery, ammo, Stugna ATGMs, tanks and IFVs.
- Germany wants to supply Ukraine with 155mm shells long-term via Rheinmetall (333,000 shells by 2029).
- Italian-donated Iveco LMVs with remote weapon stations are in service with Ukraine.
- Germany blocked Ukraine from receiving €500 million in EU aid, expressing dissatisfaction with Ukraine's claim that Israel has a pro-Russian stance. Israel summoned Ukraine's ambassador in response to the accusations.
Prigozhin and Wagner
- CNN gathered detailed intelligence on Prigozhin's insurrection plans but kept it secret, only sharing with select allies like the UK. The US knew more than the Kremlin.
- Unofficial reports claim Prigozhin has been spotted in Minsk, Belarus. Field camps are allegedly being built there to house Wagner fighters.
- Prigozhin is a classic warlord - a multi-millionaire with vast wealth and assets. His interests are likely self-serving rather than for Russia's benefit.
Geopolitics
- Serbian President Vučić praised Putin's reaction to the Wagner rebellion, saying he has a difficult task to raise army morale and confidence. Serbia supports Russia.
- Hungary again blocked €500 million in EU military aid to Ukraine, linking it to Ukraine's claim that Hungary's OTP Bank sponsors the war. Hungary's stance remains difficult within the EU.
- Germany is ready to permanently deploy 4,000 troops in a brigade to Lithuania, contrary to Russia's goal of stopping NATO expansion.
- The UK is preparing for the potential unexpected collapse of Russia, given the instability since Prigozhin's march on Moscow. Diplomats are planning for various scenarios.
Wrap up
Jonathan's brain is a bit fuzzy today but he appreciates everyone's support. He will look at the maps and provide a frontline update soon. Thanks for watching!
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