Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"From a psychological point of view, belief in God is invariably functional. That's not to say anything about the truth of God or not... But from a psychological point of view, it's very functional."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:01⏩
Jonathan introduces the video and mentions he is feeling rough after a night at the pub. He expresses his gratitude to the ATP Geopolitics community for their fundraising efforts. In just over 24 hours, they have reached the target of 10,000 euros for one truck for 'Car for Ukraine'. The goal has now been extended to two trucks. There is a link to the fundraising page in the description of the video. Jonathan encourages viewers to donate if they can, or share the link if they are unable to donate. There is also a new video on the ATP Geopolitics page about the fundraising.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
🎦 02:01-04:20⏩
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses. There is a drop across most categories compared to previous days, but still high numbers. 1,040 personnel were lost in a single day. 2 tanks were lost, a significant downtick. Zero armoured personnel vehicles were lost. 24 artillery systems, 40 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 2 pieces of special equipment were lost. Jonathan suggests the weather may be responsible for the reduction in losses.
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No Andrew Perpetua Loss List
🎦 04:20-04:39⏩
Jonathan mentions that there is no Andrew Perpetua loss list today, as he and his team, including Geek, have been behind due to their hard work. Jonathan hopes there will be stats forthcoming.
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Death of High-Ranking Russian Official
🎦 04:39-05:48⏩
Anton Gerashchenko reports that another high-ranking Russian official, Oleg Churilov, the head of the Ministry of Education and Sciences Department, has died after being hit by a car on December 12th. This follows the murder of the head of the Mars Design Bureau's department in charge of modernising cruise missiles and drones. Churilov is described as having made a "significant contribution to ensuring Russia's scientific and technological sovereignty."
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Speculation on the Deaths of Russian Officials
🎦 05:48-05:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the possible reasons behind the deaths of the two Russian officials. He suggests that the first death was likely an assassination by Ukraine, but the second is less clear.
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Fire in Krasnodar
🎦 05:55-06:16⏩
Tim White reports a fire at a warehouse and market in Krasnodar. The fire occurred before reports of a drone attack by Ukraine, suggesting it may be another "Russia on fire" incident.
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Russian Drone Attack on Ukraine
🎦 06:16-06:39⏩
Jonathan discusses a Russian drone attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian air defence forces destroyed 58 Russian drones, and 72 were taken down by electronic warfare, meaning 100% of the 132 drones used were intercepted.
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Successful Interception of Russian Drones
🎦 06:39-07:13⏩
Jonathan praises the Ukrainians for their success in intercepting the Russian drones, noting that 100% of the 132 drones were taken down. He acknowledges the pressure on Ukraine from these nightly attacks but highlights the good news that they are being intercepted so effectively.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks in Russia
🎦 07:13-07:55⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia. There were reports of drones in multiple locations, with Russia claiming to have shot down 47 Ukrainian drones. One notable incident was in Orel, where a compressor station exploded.
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Oil Depot Fire in Orel
🎦 07:55-08:27⏩
Tim White reports a large explosion and fire at an oil depot in Orel. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed they hit the oil production terminal, one of the largest in that part of Russia. No injuries were reported, but there was a significant fire.
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Orel Oil Depot Fire Still Burning
🎦 08:27-09:46⏩
Reports from Russian Telegram channels indicate that the oil depot in Orel is still burning, despite Russian claims that the fire is under control. Images show the fire is more intense than the previous night.
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Footage of Ukrainian Jet Fighters
🎦 09:46-11:07⏩
Jonathan shares footage of Ukrainian jet fighters and pilots. He highlights a video of a Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 Flanker launching US-supplied GBU-39 small diameter bombs. The flanker tosses the glide bombs while at a 60-degree climb and then banks away, giving the bombs more range. Jonathan explains the tradeoff between flying high for greater range and being more vulnerable to air defence.
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Increase in Religious Faith Among Ukrainians
🎦 11:07-13:59⏩
Jonathan discusses a survey by the Razumkov Center, which found that almost a third of Ukrainians say their religious faith has grown since the war began. He explains this phenomenon by drawing on psychological research that shows higher levels of religious belief in war-torn and violent countries, and lower levels in safe countries. He attributes this to the functional role of religion in providing a sense of hope and security in times of existential threat. Jonathan concludes that from a psychological point of view, belief in God is very functional during times of war. He emphasizes that he is not commenting on the truth of God, but rather on the psychological function of belief.
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Russian Military Withdrawal from Syria
🎦 13:59-15:09⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of a large number of Russian transport aircraft at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, along with S-400 batteries being packed up for transport. Michael Kofman suggests it is unclear if it is a complete exit, but evidence suggests a withdrawal is underway. Footage shows large convoys of Russian equipment on the move, and Syrians showing their shoes in a sign of disrespect.
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Russian Equipment Leaving Syria
🎦 15:09-16:13⏩
Jonathan notes that the Russian equipment leaving Syria is in good condition and speculates that it will likely head to Ukraine, which is a concern.
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Decline of Russia's Construction Industry
🎦 16:13-17:02⏩
Jane K reports that Russia's construction industry is at its worst level in almost six years and heading lower. Data from Rosstat shows that the rate of housing delivery over the last two months has been at its lowest level for the last six years.
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Economic Strain on Russia
🎦 17:02-18:07⏩
Jonathan disagrees with the assessment of two guests from a previous livestream who believe that a Russian economic collapse is not fundamental to the outcome of the war. Jonathan argues that if Russia is less able to pay for the war due to dwindling reserves, struggling hydrocarbon sales, and tanking industries, it will be much more difficult for them to prosecute the war. He believes that success on the battlefield is contingent upon Russia's internal collapse.
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Unpaid Workers at Russian Construction Sites
🎦 18:07-19:03⏩
Jonathan cites a report that workers at Russia's largest state construction sites, including the M12 highway, have stopped being paid. Delays began in the summer, and payments stopped completely in September. 600 out of 1,000 employees have quit, and the State Labour Inspectorate has launched an investigation.
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Economic Malaise in Russia
🎦 19:03-19:45⏩
Jonathan suggests that the issue of unpaid workers is another sign of a great economic malaise sweeping across Russia. Unpaid workers lead to decreased spending, greater depression, and increased unemployment, further straining the economy.
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Russia Tightening Grip on Communication
🎦 19:45-20:34⏩
Jonathan discusses increasing evidence that Russia is tightening its grip on communication and restricting the population's access to information. They are closing down the internet bit by bit and replacing it with their own closed system, giving them ultimate control over the information their population has access to.
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Wrap up
🎦 20:34-21:45⏩
Jonathan wraps up the video, thanking viewers for their support. He encourages everyone to visit the 'Car for Ukraine' fundraising page, where they have now raised over 50% of their 20,000 euro goal for two vehicles. He mentions a video from the livestream with Rick the Ukrainian, showing the NAFO truck in Kyiv with the ATP Geopolitics patch on the side.
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