Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231114a): Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
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"These drones can fly through windows, fly through hatches, fly through doors means that there isn't often escaping. There's a bit of a viral bit of footage that's gone out this morning... there's a car with two Russians in, at least two Russians in, and they're driving down an empty highway away from a drone that's chasing them... It's like terror of never feeling safe. That psychological effect that drones can have on people."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is feeling drained after doing 4 ATP videos plus a 2-hour live chat on his other channel. He apologises if he's a bit off colour today.
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Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
- 920 Russian personnel losses, which is at the upper end of the range
- 8 tanks, 7 APVs, 20 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 15 drones lost
- 24 vehicles and fuel tanks, 2 pieces of special equipment also lost
- Losses are still heavy for Russians in many places on the front line
- Drone footage shows many personnel losses from small drones
Andrew Perpetua's Loss Stats
- Approximately 5:1 loss ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment losses
- Ukrainians lost a couple undefined tanks, a Bradley ATGM, and a Humvee
- Russians lost ISR equipment, artillery pieces like Msta-S, Giatsint, D-20, MLRS, tanks like T-80 & T-72, BMPs, and many trucks/civilian vehicles
- Russian logistics still being hammered consistently
- Russians have drone capabilities but not the same scale as Ukrainians, especially for FPV and IED-dropping drones
Ukrainian Casualty Estimates
- American officials estimate 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and up to 120,000 seriously wounded
- Higher numbers than many pro-Ukrainians have been thinking
- Has led to a shortage of male workers in Ukraine
- Interesting analysis of effects on Ukrainian labour force, economy, and the need for more female workers and soldiers
Drone vs Russian Infantry
A group of Russian infantry tried to hide from a FPV drone inside a destroyed APC. The drone flew in the side door and exploded. This shows how capable drones are now at attacking personnel in ways not possible 10-15 years ago. There is often no escape, even inside vehicles or buildings.
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Psychological Effects of Drones
Viral footage shows a car with at least two Russians being chased by a drone down a highway. They couldn't escape and the drone hit them. This illustrates the psychological terror of never feeling safe from drones. Their effects in this regard cannot be understated.
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Russian Soldier Testimony from Kherson Front
- A soldier from Kamchatka complains of no training, lack of food/ammo, tremendous losses
- Half his battalion is gone, says Ukrainians have everything - munitions, thermals, drones
- Soldiers being killed by snipers and drones at night
- Appeals to Kamchatka residents not to come to Ukraine, calling it a "provocation"
- Says there is a "complete mutiny" and the army is poorly equipped
- Indicates things are very tough for Russians on the Kherson front
Russian Instructor on Ukrainian Cluster Munitions
- Cluster shells are knocking out masses of Russian infantry
- Infantry suffering heavy losses, disrupting combat missions
- Evacuation logistics overstrained, military medical infrastructure overloaded
- Wounded soldiers being returned to battle undertreated, often with shrapnel still in them
- Cluster munitions having a significant impact along with other factors
- Russians are getting exhausted and bled dry too, not just a Ukrainian tactic
Molotov Cocktail Attacks on Russian Military Offices
There has been a spate of Molotov cocktail attacks on military enlistment offices in Russia:
- In Podolsk, a 53-year-old woman was detained but double glazing prevented damage
- In Odintsovo, Molotov cocktails were thrown at an army office
- In Obninsk, Kaluga region, an old man was detained claiming he tried to put the flames out
While not very successful, it shows growing dissent against mobilization and the war among the Russian populace.
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Distant Strikes
- 9 Shahed drones launched at Ukraine overnight, 7 shot down. No details on damage yet.
- Strong explosion in Kherson last night, possibly an Iskander ballistic missile.
- Big explosion in occupied Donetsk today, possibly hitting fuel wagons at railway station.
- Bryansk explosives plant damaged by a drone according to Russian media.
- Design bureau near Moscow (Kolomna) struck again, 4 days after previous attack. Develops missiles and ATGMs.
- Gunpowder factory in Tambov region also reported hit.
- Russian authorities trying to suppress reporting on these incidents.
Relocation of Black Sea Fleet and Impact on Missile Logistics
- Ukrainian Navy says Russia forced to relocate cruise missile carriers to Novorossiysk from Sevastopol
- But missile logistics remained in Sevastopol, leading to problems supplying the carriers
- This explains the pause in Russian cruise missile attacks, not just stockpiling for a big strike
- Moving the fleet to Novorossiysk is a big downgrade - poorer port with issues docking and maintaining ships
- Represents a major victory for Ukraine in functionally defeating the Black Sea Fleet
UK Intelligence on Drug Use in Russian Military
- Up to 15% of Russian soldiers in Ukraine using drugs like cannabis and amphetamines
- Follows many reports of alcohol abuse, disciplinary incidents, crimes
- Drug/alcohol abusers often punished by being sent to Storm Z penal assault units
- Lack of front line rotations a key driver of substance abuse and poor discipline
- Russian troops don't go back to Russia when rotated, stay in Ukraine/Belarus
- Prevents "contamination" of Russian society with disillusioned veterans if war drags on
Potential Dismissal of Ukrainian Commanders
- Ukrainian media reported Defence Ministry considering dismissing 3 commanders
- Ministry later denied this, said it doesn't comment on rumours or unverified info
- Stated everyone working as normal, decisions made in coordination with General Staff
- So dismissals may or may not happen, could be clearing out some key decision-makers
SBU Investigating 8000 Cases of Suspected Treason
- SBU has initiated over 7000 investigations under one Criminal Code article, nearly 1000 under another
- Many daily arrests of spotters for Russian artillery, people providing intel for missile strikes
- Not surprising given pro-Russian sentiment in parts of Ukraine, especially the east
- Would have been sympathy for Russia among some demographics at start of invasion
- Nature of Ukraine's history with Russia means many collaborators once invasion began
Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and their support. He asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The auto-generated transcript had a few errors with place names and acronyms that I tried to correct. The story about the Russian instructor discussing cluster munitions and their impact was a bit unclear in places due to some confusing wording in the transcript. But overall the key points were discernible.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Extract the video title, date, and part from the YouTube title provided
Watch for key topics discussed and summarize each one, keeping the order they appear in the video
Look for any profound or poignant quotes from Jonathan to include
Use British English spelling and grammar
Break the summary into sections with topic titles
Use bullet points, numbered lists, bold, italics and underline sparingly for emphasis
Include any sources Jonathan mentions
Capture Jonathan's insights, analysis and opinions
Note anything that was unclear in the transcript that I couldn't summarize
Include Jonathan's sign-off and wrap-up comments
Review the transcript again to make sure I didn't miss any important points
Format the final summary with the proper XML structure
