Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"It means that the Russians aren't making those, those consistent large gains, that everything is grinding and difficult, and that they... we know definitely that they are losing huge amounts of personnel and vehicles, because we see the footage every single day. I'm seeing, like I've told you for the last week really, so much footage coming online."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:16⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video, reminding them to check out the key if they are unfamiliar with the map legend.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Overview of Front Line Changes: Minimal Movement With Avdiivka Excluded

🎦 00:16-00:25⏩

Jonathan begins by highlighting the static nature of the frontline, noting a lack of movement according to source maps, except around Avdiivka.

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Potential Russian Offensive in Kharkiv: Analysis and Strategic Feasibility

🎦 00:25-01:40⏩

Jonathan discusses the potential for a Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region, citing sources suggesting preparations for retaking the city. He acknowledges claims of Sumy being targeted with guided glide bombs as a possible precursor to an attack on Kyiv. However, he expresses scepticism about the feasibility of such northern attacks due to the substantial military resources required, aligning his viewpoint with Anders Puck-Nelson's assessment that any offensive is more likely to occur along the eastern frontline. Jonathan analyses the insights of Phillips O'Brien, emphasizing the decline of rapid mechanized manoeuvres due to vulnerabilities to drones, mines, anti-tank missiles, and helicopters. He concludes that any Russian attack would likely be a grinding assault rather than a swift operation.

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Bakhmut Front: Unchanged With a Focus on Canal Defences and JR's Bridge and Culvert Updates

🎦 03:10-06:58⏩

Shifting focus to Bakhmut, Jonathan notes the static frontline but delves into JR's recent map updates, highlighting the addition of bridge and culvert locations. Jonathan emphasizes the significance of the canal as a defensive line for the Ukrainians, acknowledging Russian pressure west of Chasiv Yar, particularly around the forest area. He details the challenges posed by the canal for Russian forces seeking to advance, emphasizing the need to bridge across it to facilitate mechanized equipment and troop movement. Jonathan meticulously analyses various bridge and culvert points along the canal, acknowledging their strategic importance and speculating on their likely destruction. He points out a long culvert that could potentially offer the Russians an opportunity to bypass the canal obstacle. Jonathan commends JR's contributions to the map updates.

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Avdiivka: Evidence of Active Defence and Ukrainian Counter Attacks

🎦 07:08-09:03⏩

Moving on to Avdiivka, Jonathan shares footage of a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle engaging targets, underscoring the Ukrainians' active defence and counter-attacks in the region. He emphasizes the importance of this strategy, particularly north of Avdiivka, to prevent Russian encirclement from the north and to maintain the advantage of difficult terrain. Jonathan carefully analyzes the geolocation of the footage and its implications for the frontline dynamics. He observes Russian gains around Novokalynove and Berdychi, noting the slow and grinding nature of their advance.

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Minimal Frontline Changes: Analysis of Russian Territorial Gains

🎦 09:03-10:33⏩

Jonathan acknowledges reports of Russian movement in the Pervomaiske area, highlighting its significance as potentially the sole gain for them on the entire frontline. He interprets this limited progress as indicative of the difficulties and high attrition rates faced by the Russians, emphasizing the abundance of footage depicting their losses.

Black Sea Oil Rigs: Strategic Implications of Ukrainian Control

🎦 10:33-13:14⏩

Jonathan shifts attention to the Black Sea oil rigs, highlighting Ukrainian control over them. He discusses their strategic importance, suggesting they could host electronic warfare equipment, anti-tank guided missiles, and man-portable air defence systems, thereby posing a threat to Russian naval and aerial assets. Jonathan speculates on their potential use as launchpads for raids into Crimea, citing the example of attacks on Onivka and Mayak. He emphasizes the intelligence-gathering capabilities of the rigs, particularly in monitoring Russian drone activity and potentially disrupting their operations.

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Wrap up

🎦 13:14-13:20⏩

Jonathan concludes the frontline update, reiterating the minimal changes observed and bidding farewell to his viewers.

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