Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Whatever they are putting in Emmanuel Macron's beef bourguignon, double the dose - because he's saying all the right things!"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-07:20⏩
Jonathan is busy editing his Ukraine video diary - it's taking ages as he's not an editor! There's lots to discuss today though, especially around Emmanuel Macron's visit to Czechia to meet with Petr Pavel. Jonathan notes that Macron has received criticism for initially attempting to act as a peace broker between Ukraine and Russia - but argues that this was at the request of Zelensky, making Macron less of an appeaser than previously thought. Jonathan feels that in the wake of the US stepping back from its leading role in supporting Ukraine, both in terms of military aid and rhetoric, Macron is positioning himself as a new leader for Europe, with the French arms industry now more willing to provide Ukraine with what it needs. Jonathan argues that Macron may be right to make this move as no other countries are stepping up - Germany was a possibility but their recent actions over the Taurus missiles and the Intercept leaks have made their position untenable. Jonathan feels that Macron's position will be difficult given potential Russian interference in upcoming French elections (Marine Le Pen's France rally party may have links to Russia) but for now he seems to be "saying the right things" and France is stepping up. This is positive as Ukraine is in a difficult position following the counter-offensive's failure to meet its objectives, the lack of ammunition, and the realization from other countries that the situation is deteriorating.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Frontline Update: Overview and Artillery Ammunition
🎦 07:20-08:06⏩
Before launching into more granular detail, Jonathan notes that there's not much to report for the Southern Frontline or the Dnipro River area. Today's map, courtesy of JR, will focus on fighting in the East. Jonathan also notes that there are claims (source is Spartan News) that there is a sense that artillery ammunition is finally reaching Ukraine, with Caesars howitzers in action. He's also noticed more footage of Ukrainian forces using cluster munitions in the past week. Jonathan argues that this increased artillery presence was inevitable as there has been so much effort to get ammunition to Ukraine - and they are still manufacturing their own.
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Frontline Update: Kreminna - Svatove - Kupiansk
🎦 08:06-09:53⏩
- Kupyansk-Synkivka Area: Jonathan observes that ZSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces) maps and Syriac maps show differing assessments of control in this area, with ZSU maps indicating Ukrainian gains and Syriac maps suggesting Russian gains. Despite this, Jonathan doesn't believe that Russian forces control the Northern areas of Synkivka. He highlights that whilst the town itself is small (and sparsely populated), it's been the target of attempted Russian advances for a while, with the Ukrainians doing "an absolutely incredible job" of holding them off.
- Kreminna Area: Jonathan notes that there is talk of forced Russian concentrations in this area, particularly West of Kreminna, with ISW reporting a Russian advance on Yampolivka, citing a Russian milblogger source. Despite holding the initiative in this area, the ISW report states that Russian forces are unable to turn smaller, tactical gains into more significant operational successes - a trend Jonathan feels is evident in the wider conflict.
- Lyman Direction: The Russian MOD has claimed that their Su-34 fighter bombers have conducted glide bomb attacks on Ukrainian positions in this direction.
Frontline Update: Bilohorivka
🎦 09:53-14:14⏩
Syriac maps show that Russia has made "fairly considerable gains" in the Bilohorivka area in the last 48 hours, capturing the forest belt North East of the settlement. Jonathan emphasizes the strategic importance of Bilohorivka in holding back the Russian advance through the Serebiansky Forest towards Siversk. He describes how the Russians are attempting to flank the Ukrainian positions at Bilohorivka but are struggling due to the challenging topography - they would either need to move troops and equipment through dense forest and across the Siverskyi Donets river (which would leave them vulnerable) or attack from the South. Jonathan acknowledges that the Russians have made serious gains in the South, especially in Zolota Rivka, and appear to be approaching the main settlement of Bilohorivka (though he notes that it's been largely destroyed, with only basements remaining). However, he doesn't believe they've been able to advance far enough to negate the Ukrainian topographical advantage. Jonathan also points out that Syriac Maps indicate potential Ukrainian activity in the North East of the sector, where Russian forces appear to have secured the high ground.
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Frontline Update: Northern Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar
🎦 14:14-21:12⏩
- Northern Bakhmut - Bakhmut: There appear to be no significant changes to report in the Northern Bakhmut area.
- Andriivka - Bodonivka: Andriy Perpetua's map shows a minor Russian advance on a tree line North of Bodonivka, an area that the Ukrainians had successfully pushed the Russians back from previously. Whilst not hugely significant in itself, Jonathan feels it demonstrates that things are not going entirely to plan for Russia in the sector.
- Ivanivske: There's considerable concern about the situation in Ivanivske, which is looking increasingly precarious for the Ukrainians, with Greg reporting on Mercado Media that the Russians are halfway into the settlement. Analysis from ISW supports this assessment, noting that geolocated footage confirms Russian presence in central Ivanivske and that Russian milbloggers are reporting ongoing fighting in the West of the settlement, with Russian forces attempting to cut Ukrainian supply lines from the North. Suryat Maps shows Russian forces in control of around 60% of the settlement (including the Community Center on Zorychna street), based on the geolocation of several abandoned/destroyed Ukrainian military vehicles. Although Jonathan initially questions whether the presence of these vehicles alone indicates Russian control, he acknowledges that the location - combined with confirmations from other mapping sources - makes this highly likely. However, the ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of these gains. Despite these setbacks, Jonathan highlights that Russian forces haven't made as much progress as might be expected, particularly in the South of Bakhmut. He argues that whilst they would undoubtedly like to be making advances on multiple fronts, they simply do not have the resources. Jonathan draws parallels with Reporting from Ukraine's assessment of the situation (citing their analysis of Ivaniske and Klishchiivka), noting that this perceived lack of Russian resources is a positive for Ukraine. Jonathan argues that the situation in Ivanivske is a prime example of Russia's punctuated equilibrium approach, where limited resources are devoted to pushing in a small number of strategically important sectors. He highlights other areas where Russia would like to be making more progress but is unable to, including Bilohirka, Avdiivka, and even Robotyne, where small numbers of Russian troops are still holding a bridgehead despite Ukrainian attempts to dislodge them. Jonathan attributes this to the effective use of Russian aviation combined with the (until recently) limited availability of Ukrainian artillery. This is in contrast to areas like Klishchiivka and Andriivka, where Russian attempts to advance have been unsuccessful.
Frontline Update: Avdiivka
🎦 21:12-23:50⏩
- Avdiivka - Overall Assessment: Jonathan notes that there are "varying claims" about the situation in and around Avdiivka, particularly regarding who controls what in the Olivka and Tonenky area. Whilst some Russian sources (including Suryat Maps) have claimed the capture of these settlements, Ukrainian sources suggest they have been pushed back. Jonathan highlights that it's a very fluid situation and there will inevitably be ambiguity, with control changing hands frequently.
- Lastochkyne - Pervomaiske: Andriy Perpertua's map suggests Russian gains West of Lastochkyne and South of Olivka, with Suryat Maps showing further gains along the road leading South to Pervomaiske. However, Suryat Maps acknowledges that earlier reports of Russian forces reaching the town center were inaccurate.
Frontline Update: Krasnohorivka - Marinka - Novomykhailivka
🎦 23:50-29:32⏩
- Krasnohorivka: Suryat Maps indicates that Russian forces have advanced almost to the Southern edge of Krasnohorivka, although this is not reflected on other maps. Jonathan suggests that this could be due to the timing of the maps, with other sources likely to catch up soon.
- Marinka: IStrikeIntel reports that Ukrainian infantry are in control of around 40% of Marinka. Suryat maps indicates Russian advances towards Hryhorivka (to the north of Marinka).
- Pobieda: Jonathan highlights the importance of this settlement, with Suryat Maps showing Russian advances in the area, including the capture of a nearby forest belt.
- Novomykhailivka: Suryat Maps reports that Russian forces have taken control of the centre of Novomykhailivka, even raising a flag (though other sources, including Deep State Map, dispute this). They also report that the Russians have taken control of a milk factory on the Southern outskirts of the settlement. However, Deep State Map disagrees with this assessment. Jonathan believes that Deep State Map may be right to do so, given the Russian tendency to raise flags and then retreat (making them vulnerable to Ukrainian drones). ISW has geolocated footage that appears to show the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (which was recently targeted in a HIMARS attack) advancing into the centre of Novomykhailivka - potentially the flag raising incident. Jonathan reiterates his earlier point that this area is strategically important for the Russians, offering a more appealing route of advance than further West. He believes it is unsurprising that they appear to be concentrating their efforts in this area, as a push towards Kurakhove (via Novomykhailivka and Kostantynivka) would give them control of the road connecting Vuhledar with Pobieda. However, the Ukrainian OSV Tavria operational command has stated that whilst the Russians are carrying out more daily assaults in this sector than around Avdiivka, the Ukrainian defenses are holding.
Wrap up
🎦 29:32-30:28⏩
Jonathan believes that is everything covered for today. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, share, and ring the bell, as well as share their thoughts in the comments, especially regarding Macron and whether he deserves "a bit of props" for his more forceful stance in support of Ukraine.
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