Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Crimea, Billionaires, & The Remit of the Armed Forces
Table of Contents 📖
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"I think the whole war is about Crimea, and if Ukraine wants to get Russia to the negotiating table, they can't do that, I don't think, without Crimea being in their hands. I think that is absolutely vital."
Hello Team!
Jonathan mentions attending a coronation celebration with his neighbours. He is ambivalent about the monarchy but enjoys the community gathering. He is wearing a "Keep Calm and Focus on Philosophy" shirt.
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The importance of Crimea for Ukraine's future security and economy
- Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges explains that liberating Crimea is key for Ukraine's future security and rebuilding its economy.
- Jonathan agrees, believing the whole war is about Crimea. Russia would likely give up other occupied territories to keep Crimea due to its strategic importance (warm water port, naval access to Mediterranean, control of Black Sea).
- Ukraine needs to make Crimea untenable for Russian forces by cutting off the land bridge and using long-range precision weapons rather than a direct ground attack.
Igor Girkin's criticism of Russia's war strategy and looming defeat
- Pro-Russian military blogger Igor Girkin warns that Russia faces impending military defeat in Ukraine due to lack of strategy and goals.
- Jonathan agrees, having written about Russia's predicament in April 2022. Russia is stuck in Ukraine with no way to win, lacking manpower and equipment to achieve any objectives beyond what they currently hold.
- The only foreseeable end is a complete military loss for Russia followed by potential political upheaval. Pro-Russian voices claiming inevitable victory are not realistic.
Corruption in Russia's military procurement and early warning systems
Military history researcher Chris Parry shares a report about rampant corruption rendering Russia's ballistic missile early warning radars virtually useless. Contractors allegedly used unsuitable foreign components in a massive component substitution scam. This has left Russia with unstable radars vulnerable to attack. The early warning system has not been seriously modernized since Soviet times and struggles with the proliferation of satellites in near-Earth orbits.
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Responding to viewer feedback on Jonathan's liberal views and economic discussions
Jonathan addresses a thoughtful critique from a conservative Christian viewer who supports Ukraine. Key points:
- Jonathan acknowledges his liberal views influence his analysis, as personal beliefs are hard to separate. He aims to be objective but avoids being politically vacuous.
- On discussing US economic benefits from the war, Jonathan clarifies he doesn't think the US as a whole profits massively, but certain entities like the military-industrial complex do. He distinguishes this from oil companies making record profits while people struggle to afford energy.
- Jonathan pushes back on the idea that the US is always asked to get involved in world issues, arguing it often self-involves to maintain hegemony and advance its own interests. Interventions are often more about economics and geopolitics than pure morality.
- He explores the complex relationship between economics, national interests, and morality in foreign policy. Sound economics enable countries to better address human rights and other higher-order concerns.
Wrap up
Jonathan invites viewers to share if the discussion made them think differently. He appreciates the respectful disagreement from the commenter as it allows for substantive conversations. He signs off asking viewers to like, subscribe and share the video.
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