Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"I have now started labeling this an operational disaster for the Russians...I just don't think it was well thought through...I don't think they've achieved any of their objectives."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:43⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers and apologises for uploading the wrong video earlier, explaining that he is not thinking straight after three days of intense exercise. He explains this is due to his multiple sclerosis, for which swimming is good exercise, but that he has overdone it. This means he unfortunately has to miss the D-Day commemorations in Portsmouth.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Strikes in Belgorod and possible expansion of US support for strikes in Russia
🎦 02:02-03:17⏩
Jonathan reports on several days of Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Belgorod, with no sign of the threatened escalation to World War III. He reports a rumour that the Biden administration will hold talks with Ukraine about allowing strikes in more parts of Russia with US-provided weapons. He quotes White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby as saying that such talks will take place and will include consideration of what Ukraine asks for. Jonathan speculates that this might include the provision of ATACMS.
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Russia forcibly deploying soldiers refusing to fight to Kharkiv Oblast
🎦 03:17-04:43⏩
Jonathan reports, citing Euromaidan Press, that Russia is forcibly deploying soldiers who have refused to fight to Kharkiv Oblast. The information comes from Russian opposition outlet Verstka, via the ISW. It is reported that soldiers who refused to fight were being held at military bases pending trial for crimes related to their refusal, but that the trials were abruptly cancelled and the soldiers sent to the front, including in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Jonathan notes that two such detention locations have been identified. He infers from this that a) morale is low among the troops in question; b) Russia is taking losses in the areas these soldiers are being sent to; and c) Russia is desperate to feed these soldiers into meatgrinder assaults. He concludes that none of this is good news for Russia.
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Ukrainian advances around Vovchansk
🎦 04:43-11:02⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian 71st Jaeger Brigade have pushed Russian forces back north and east of Vovchansk in the past two days. He references maps from Syriac Map, which describe the situation as "fluid and confused". They report that the Volchansky-Agrigatny-Zavod factory could not be held by the Russians, and that Ukrainian troops to the south continued to resist. However, they say there is no talk of a large-scale Ukrainian counter-offensive. Jonathan picks up on Syriac Map's use of language, which he describes as typical of their tendency to downplay Ukrainian success while using stronger language to describe Russian advances. He notes that Syriac Map acknowledge heavy fighting is taking place in the area of high-rise buildings, which is either under grey zone control or Ukrainian control. Jonathan then cites pro-Ukrainian source Vovchansk Geolocated Footage, which reports that Ukrainian forces have recaptured significant parts of eastern Vovchansk, north of the Vodchka River. He contrasts this with Syriac Map's more begrudging account. He then references pro-Russian, MOD-aligned source Rybar, which describes the situation in the Slobozhans'k direction as tense and acknowledges that Ukrainian units are regularly counter-attacking there in an attempt to reduce the combat potential of Russian troops (ie. to kill them). They report heavy fighting in Vovchansk, where Ukrainian forces are trying to establish supply lines to the north of the Volchka River. They report that Russian assault troops are only advancing locally south of Harahina street due to Ukrainian artillery and FPV drone strikes. Jonathan notes the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones in the area. Rybar acknowledge that Ukrainian forces retain the ability to establish crossings over the river using bridge layers, but claim that Russian forces have destroyed at least three such structures to the west of the bridge on Sabona Street. Jonathan picks up on this detail, noting that he had been expecting to hear about the use of bridge layers in the area. He notes that the Russians had advanced as far as the Vodchka River, and that it would be very difficult for Ukraine to supply troops in the city without being able to reinforce over the river. He reasons that Ukraine would have to rely on bridge layers, but that they should expect to lose a number of these, as the bridges they create are sure to be targeted by Russian forces. He notes that the key is to ensure the bridge laying vehicle itself is not destroyed in these attacks, and that Germany has provided a number of bridge layers to Ukraine. He notes that Rybar report that the main strong point of the defence of the northern part of the city remains the quarter with the high-rise buildings. Though this has seen heavy fighting, and both sides have used guided glide bombs there, it still represents a strong defensive position for Ukraine. Rybar reports fighting to the east of Holia street, north of Chanstsy, where Russian forces are digging in and fortifying their positions in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter-attack. They report that Ukrainian units are trying to disrupt these efforts by targeting engineering equipment with drones. They also report fighting along the Heliobakei-Lipsi line, where Ukrainian forces are counter-attacking. They say Russian troops are responding by striking concentrations of Ukrainian manpower and equipment. They claim that in other areas along this part of the front there is fighting but no advances by either side. Jonathan observes that the Russians seem to be trying to dig in behind their current lines but are being hit by Ukrainian drones, and that there are reports of Ukrainian counter-attacks around Hlyubokhe, Luhansk and Lipsi. Rybar reports that the destruction of enemy objects and positions continues along the entire line of contact. They claim that Lancet loitering munitions destroyed another Ukrainian OSA air defence system northeast of Kharkiv, but acknowledge that Ukrainian forces continue to strike targets in the Belgorod region, inflicting suffering on the local population with artillery and FPV drones. Jonathan notes that this makes no mention of the suffering of Russian military personnel, or the destruction of their equipment, such as the two S-400 air defence systems and Kastor radar system which have been damaged by Ukrainian strikes. Rybar acknowledge that Ukrainian forces are actively using HIMARS to strike positions and objects behind the front lines, including SAM launch positions. Jonathan concludes that the Russians are suffering both north and south of the border. He characterises the Russian offensive in this area as an operational disaster, saying he does not believe they have achieved any of their objectives. He speculates that those objectives probably involved establishing a buffer zone, maintaining an artillery threat on Kharkiv, and drawing Ukrainian troops away from other sectors of the front. He speculates that Ukraine may have redeployed some units from the front line to this sector, citing the apparent absence of Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Dnipro. However, he reasons that the Russians have made such a mess of this offensive that they have been forced to redeploy their own troops from the front line and training areas to fight there, which he characterises as a disaster.
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Kreminna sector
🎦 11:57-12:13⏩
Jonathan reports no change to the front line in the northeastern sector, before noting small Russian gains north of Soledar, in the Rozdolivka area. These are located between Mykolaivka and Rozdolivka. He does not believe these gains are anything to be particularly concerned about.
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Siversk sector
🎦 12:13-12:37⏩
Jonathan reports no changes around Siversk, noting that this has been the case for a number of days, which is positive for Ukraine. However, he notes there is no doubt there is heavy fighting taking place.
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Avdiivka sector
🎦 12:37-14:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have made small gains in the Avdiivka sector, pushing westwards from Ocheretyne towards Prokofievka. They have also made gains between the settlements of Vodiane and Severne on the way to Sukhyi Potik, advancing from the area of Soloviove. Jonathan refers to reporting by Syriac map, which are the only source to report these gains. They report that during the last 48 hours, the Russian army captured trenches south of Novooleksandrivka, and that Russian troops have begun an assault on Sukhyi Potik, so far capturing positions on the eastern outskirts of the village. Jonathan notes that these gains amount to little more than the treelines around the village. He expects fighting to begin inside the village soon. He then reports that Andrew Perpetua reports Russian gains south-west of Netailove. Jonathan notes that these gains fall within the area of previously reported advances by Syriac Map and Deep State Map, so probably do not represent a change in the last 24 hours, merely confirmation of earlier gains. However, he notes that Andrew Perpetua does not report the Russian advance going all the way. Jonathan then reports that Russian forces have been pushed back in the agricultural settlement of Pobjeda, which had represented an important location from which to block a flanking attack on Marinka. However, he notes that Marinka has now fallen, so the loss of Pobjeda was inevitable. He notes that Russian forces appear to have made a move slightly to the south of Pobjeda.
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Russian advance towards Karlivka
🎦 14:17-15:16⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces appear to have taken Paraskeviivka, just to the west of Novomykhailivka, as they advance on Kostiantynivka. He then goes back to discuss the situation around Karlivka, to the south-west of Netailove, and the Karlivka reservoir. He notes that Syriac Map reported a Russian advance in the area yesterday, but that the related tweet was only published today. The tweet reports that over the last four days, Russian forces advanced west and south-west of Netailove to the eastern dachas (cottages) of Karlivka. Jonathan characterises this advance as "a bit of a challenge" as Karlivka is a fairly useful location. He observes that the Ukrainians have a salient in this area, and that it would be good for them to put a stop to this Russian advance, which makes the salient more precarious.
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Further Russian advances south of Avdiivka
🎦 15:16-15:57⏩
Returning to the situation around Paraskeviivka, Jonathan notes that reports state that Russian forces have taken positions in the western part of the village. He cites drone footage which reports the enemy (Russian) forces advancing up to 400 metres wide and 480 metres deep in the area. He references Syriac Map, who report that during 11 days of combat, Russian forces have managed to capture most of the village.
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Vuhledar sector
🎦 15:57-16:08⏩
Jonathan reports no change around Vuhledar, although he notes that there has been some talk about renewed activity in the area.
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Southern front
🎦 16:08-17:05⏩
Jonathan reports no change to the front line around Velyka Novosilka. He notes some small changes in the Robotyne area, which may have happened yesterday. He observes that there have been no major changes to report anywhere on the southern front in the last 10 days, and that includes the Dnipro sector. He believes the fighting in Krynky is largely positional, and questions whether there are any Ukrainian forces remaining on the left bank of the Dnipro river. However, he does not believe this means Russian forces can simply walk in and take the territory, as they will come under attack from the drones which are still active in the area. He notes that a lot of Ukrainian drone units have been sent north to Kharkiv, citing the Madjid's Birds unit as an example. These were previously active on the southern front but are now operating to great effect in Kharkiv.
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Wrap up
🎦 17:05-17:09⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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