Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

Russia keeps entering this cycle where they have these huge grinding battles where they suffer huge attrition but never the breakthrough on the other side to justify the losses, they just go from one huge attritional battle to the next huge attritional battle in sequence, which is how they end up losing thousands of vehicles.

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:07⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Frontline Update for 11th June 2024. He advises viewers to check the key for the map if they are unfamiliar.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Belgorod - Russian redeployment of air defences

🎦 00:07-02:10⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian strikes on Russian military assets in Belgorod may have forced a change in Russian deployments. He explains that the Crimea-based Atash movement reported that Russia has redeployed air defence systems from Crimea to Belgorod. Jonathan highlights that this is the second time he's mentioned it and it's significant because it leaves Crimea more vulnerable to attack.

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Crimea - Increased vulnerability & the Kerch Bridge

🎦 02:10-03:04⏩

Jonathan refers to the ISW report and notes that the redeployment of air defence systems from Crimea may lead to increased Ukrainian strikes in the region, potentially targeting the Kerch Bridge. He reminds viewers that Russia resorted to transporting fuel across the Kerch Strait by rail due to the risk of Ukrainian strikes on fuel transports crossing the bridge.

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Sea of Azov - Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels

🎦 03:04-04:04⏩

Jonathan highlights a conflicting report about a Ukrainian attack on a Russian landing ship in the Sea of Azov. Although initially reported by the Ukrainian Military, Plotinchuk, a Ukrainian military spokesperson later denied the attack. However, Jonathan points out that there have been other confirmed attacks on various Russian boats and ships in the region. Jonathan speculates that although it is unconfirmed what has been targeted, multiple attacks have taken place.

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Northern Front Line & Sumy Oblast - No changes

🎦 04:04-05:08⏩

Jonathan reports no changes along the Northern Frontline. He explains that the pro-Russian mapper Surat Maps who normally maps Russian controlled territory, has not been mapping for over a week so he has removed his maps from his updates. Jonathan acknowledges that Surat has done this before and may be on holiday. He also notes that there is no news from Sumy Oblast, despite reports of Ukrainian forces engaging and eliminating Russian troops operating across the border in a village on the Ukrainian side.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front Line - No change, Ukrainian advance in Serebryansky Forest

🎦 05:08-06:14⏩

Jonathan reports no change along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna front, good news for Ukraine. However, he points out that recent geolocated evidence suggests that Russia may have been pushed back further than originally thought in the Serebryansky Forest, potentially indicating a successful Ukrainian counter attack. He explains the challenges faced by mappers trying to geolocate positions in heavily forested areas, noting that Andrew Perpetua (Deep State Map) needs a high degree of confidence in the evidence before making changes to the map.

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Northern Bakhmut - Russian Capture of Ivanovske

🎦 06:14-09:00⏩

Jonathan observes that there is no change along the first frontline north of Bakhmut until Chesi Yar. He notes that both Deepstatemap.live and Andrew Perpetua (Deep State Map) show that Russia has taken control of Ivanovske. Jonathan is surprised by this development as it has been fiercely contested with heavy fighting and its location on low ground makes it difficult to hold. He then highlights conflicting reports about the status of Ivanovske. The Kiev Independent reports that Ukraine is in control, directly contradicting the Russian Defence Ministry who claimed to have captured the village several days ago. Both Deep State Map and Andrew Perpetua assessed that Russian forces had captured the village on 10th June 2024. Jonathan then quotes the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military who insists that Ivanovske belongs to Ukraine and is controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He acknowledges that there is a discrepancy and speculates that Ukrainian forces are likely present on the outskirts, possibly launching counter attacks and holding a small number of buildings.

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Northern Bakhmut - Russian Advance near Klishchiivka, Ukrainian gains possible

🎦 09:00-09:45⏩

Jonathan notes that Deep State Map indicates a Russian advance into Klishchiivka but is unsure whether it is a genuine advance or a map error. He notes that there has been a lot of activity in the Chesi Yar area but is surprised that there have been no other changes along the Eastern Front.

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Avdiivka - Slow Russian advance, Stalemate

🎦 09:45-11:31⏩

Jonathan observes that the main areas of activity are Avdiivka and Chesi Yar, with little change elsewhere on the Eastern Front. He expresses surprise at the slow progress made by the Russians in the Avdiivka area, noting that they have not advanced as quickly as expected. Jonathan believes that the Derna river has played a significant role in slowing the Russian advance, giving Ukrainian forces time to fortify their positions. He then reads a comment from Andrew Perpetua (Deep State Map) who states "I'm genuinely surprised by how little ground Russia has managed to take west of Avdiivka. I expected them to move much further, especially north of Ocherutina and west of Pobjeda. In my opinion, it shows a weakness of the Russian military that they were able to exploit capturing Avdiivka". Jonathan agrees with Andrew Perpetua's assessment and finds it amusing that pro-Russian commentators are becoming increasingly vocal about Russia's inability to capitalize on any minor victories. He believes this highlights a consistent pattern in Russia's military strategy.

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Avdiivka - Russian inability to exploit gains and attritional warfare

🎦 11:31-13:43⏩

Jonathan provides several examples of Russia's inability to capitalize on minor gains and their reliance on attritional warfare. He notes that despite having numerical superiority, Russian forces consistently struggle to maintain momentum after capturing a settlement, often getting bogged down in protracted battles with heavy losses. Jonathan uses several examples of towns and villages where Russian forces have made minimal gains at a significant cost. They include Avdiivka, Mariinka, Novomykolaivka and Vuhledar. He highlights that whilst Russian forces have air superiority, it is not absolute and they do not use their air power effectively (close air support) due to the risk of Ukrainian air defence systems. He observes that Russia appears to be making the same mistakes and is failing to learn from their experiences.

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Avdiivka - Further Russian advances South of Ocheretyne

🎦 13:43-16:27⏩

Jonathan states that Russian forces have pushed back Ukrainian forces south of Ocheretyne near Novoselidivka Druha and Sokil, making small gains in the large fields. However, he emphasizes that Ukrainian forces are putting up fierce resistance and that every tree line and fortification presents a significant challenge to the advancing Russian forces.

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Krasnohorivka - Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian losses

🎦 16:27-18:10⏩

Jonathan reports that there has been fighting in Krasnohorivka, with Russian forces engaged inside the town. He notes that whilst there is no change shown on the maps from Deep State Map or Andrew Perpetua, reports from Dead District suggest that Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian forces slightly, liberating a school and gaining control of around 0.8 square kilometers of territory. Jonathan adds that Ukrainian forces may still be in control of some tree lines in the area following a counterattack several weeks ago.

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Velyka Novosilka - Russian advance and conflicting claims

🎦 18:10-20:42⏩

Jonathan reports no changes around Novomykolaivka or the Vuhledar salient. Moving south past Vuhledar, Pavlivka and Volodymyrivka, he examines the situation around Staromaiorske and Urozhaine on the Velyka Novosilka-Vuhledar salient. He notes that the Mokri Yaly river splits the two villages and that whilst Ukrainian forces appear to be holding back the Russian advance in Urozhaine, Russian forces seem to have had success in Staromaiorske according to Deep State Map. However, he again highlights conflicting information about the status of Staromaiorske, pointing out that the Ukrainian General Staff maintains that Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian troops in the area. Jonathan also highlights a report from Def Mon who suggests that Russian forces have recaptured Staromaiorske, based on drone footage showing Russian flags positioned on one of the few remaining buildings. Jonathan notes that whilst the footage confirms that Russian forces are present, it does not necessarily mean that they have full control of the village. However, he acknowledges that a separate report from No Report suggests Russian forces may have recaptured the village, raising their flag in the northern part. He speculates that Ukrainian forces may be downplaying the situation for propaganda reasons. No Report also states that Russian forces have advanced into Urozhaine and are now occupying streets in the southern part of the village, close to the centre.

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Southern Front Line - No significant changes

🎦 20:42-21:31⏩

Jonathan reports that there are no significant changes along the rest of the Southern Front line. He states that he is unsure whether Ukrainian forces are still present on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Kinburn Spit and that there have been no changes to the mapping in the area, despite a lack of evidence of a continued Ukrainian presence. However, he notes that there are no reports of Russian forces attempting to retake the area and that they are coming under artillery and drone attacks, possibly from Ukrainian forces.

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Wrap up

🎦 21:31-21:38⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching his frontline update, reminding them to take care and that he will speak to them soon.

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