Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"If they could counter-attack but they aren't, you know, if they've got the troops to do so but they aren't doing it in any big meaningful way, either they're waiting to do that at some more optimal point or it is working to their favor."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video with a minor correction from his earlier news video - a Russian helicopter was not shot down by Ukrainians but lost control and crashed into the Sea of Azov. He jokes it can say hello to the Moskva (the Russian warship that was sunk).
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian use of elite forces
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think tank, reports that prominent Russian military bloggers are criticizing Russia's ineffective use of their elite forces (VDV paratroopers, naval infantry, Spetsnaz special forces) in Ukraine. Due to high casualties, these units are being reconstituted with poorly trained mobilized personnel, diluting their effectiveness and specialities. The military blogger admits Russia has been forming light infantry units without transports for some time, despite their doctrinal focus on motorized/mechanized infantry.
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Frontline Update - Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis
- Pro-Russian source Rybar reports artillery duels and positional battles along the entire frontline. A Ukrainian sabotage/reconnaissance group was allegedly destroyed near Synkivka.
- ISW mentions unsuccessful Russian operations in the Kreminna, Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka areas. Chechen Akhmat special forces are operating near Bilohorivka.
- A Russian military blogger claimed previous reports of Ukrainian withdrawal from Spirne were premature - they still control it as of April 20th.
- Russian MoD claims they repelled 3 Ukrainian sabotage/recon groups near Ternova (NW of Svatove) and Andriivka.
Bakhmut
- Wagner assault detachments have cleared the territory of a "transit hotel", pushing Ukrainian forces away from the railway station. The grain elevator has been destroyed.
- Russians are intensifying efforts to advance towards and interdict the O0506 highway that runs through Khromove. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainians shelling Russian positions NW of Khromove.
- Wagner forces using T-90M tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions in central Bakhmut. A Russian blogger claims Russians confidently hold the administration buildings/central square while Ukrainians hold a relatively small urban area.
- Reporting from Ukraine suggests there is an artillery asymmetry - Ukrainians using longer-range Western systems to gradually take out Russian artillery that can't counter-fire.
- Jonathan believes the Ukrainian withdrawal is controlled and going to plan. He expects the Russians to fully take Bakhmut eventually but it will be a pyrrhic victory of little intrinsic value.
Avdiivka
- Storming of Avdiivka fortifications continues. Ukrainian positions are under intensive artillery and heavy flamethrower fire.
- Minor Russian gains around Novokalynove and Sieverne, attempting to create conditions to encircle Avdiivka.
- Ukrainians launched a counterattack near Krasnohorivka.
Marinka
- Russian motorized units continue to storm Ukrainian positions. In the south, fighting has shifted west of Druzhba Avenue.
- However, according to pro-Ukrainian sources, Ukraine has pushed back in the south towards Pobjeda which is key to preventing encirclement of Marinka.
Vuhledar/SW Donetsk
- Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force near Pavlivka. Russians attacking towards Prechystivka.
- Unconfirmed claims of Russian gains south of Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia/Kherson Fronts
- Thermobaric launchers allegedly being used by Russians near Novodanylivka, Zaporizhzhia.
- Unconfirmed Russian claims of gains south of Hulyaipole.
- Russians continue defensive preparations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, looting and transporting goods.
- Ukrainians are hitting Russian positions with MLRS. A Russian blogger claims Ukraine has had a foothold on the left bank near the Antonivsky Bridge for weeks.
Symbolism of May 9th
Jonathan speculates that Russia will aim to fully capture Bakhmut by the symbolic May 9th holiday. He wonders if Ukraine will launch a major counterattack just before this date to spoil the Russian PR victory.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel. He will provide an extra update video later.
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