Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:11⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Frontline update, expressing nerves about his upcoming public talk on the Ukraine war - his first time speaking publicly on a subject that is not philosophy related! Jonathan reassures viewers that he's not nervous about giving talks in general, but he is apprehensive about meeting viewers who may have travelled to attend and hopes they won't be disappointed. Jonathan thanks viewers for their ongoing support before taking a sip of the gin and tonic his partner has just made.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northern Front Line
🎦 01:11-02:32⏩
Jonathan begins with the northern section of the frontline and notes that there is no change.
- Jonathan reminds viewers that the blue lines on the map represent the Russian defensive lines (courtesy of Andrew Perpetua).
- The grey zone represents the Ukrainian defensive line.
- Whilst there's no change in the north, Jonathan notes that he saw footage of Vovchanshy, describing it as "heartbreaking" - the town has been bombed to oblivion and reminds him of Bakhmut but over a much shorter timescale, just 6 weeks.
- In the north east (from Kupiansk to Svatove to Kremina) there's no change, although there are claims that the Russians attacked with renewed vigour the other day
- No change on the northern Sversk frontline.
- Jonathan notes that he would like to see the Ukrainians push forward a bit and remind viewers that Ukraine is supposed to be on the offensive.
Southern Front Line - Soledar, Bakhmut and Avdiivka
🎦 02:32-07:24⏩
- Jonathan highlights a number of changes on the DeepState map in the Soledar region - around the Rosdolivka area (north of Yakovlivka) where Ukraine have made some small but notable gains.
- Jonathan then spends some time discussing a discrepancy between the DeepState map and Andrew Perpetua's mapping - on the previous day, Andrew's map showed that Russia had taken control of the area around Ivanovska, pushing forward to a new Russian defensive line. However, this has been updated to show the previous lines, because Andrew has received information that Ukraine may still be present (in unknown positions) in the forest, and may still have control of a settlement there.
- This is significant for a couple of reasons.
- Firstly, this was also reflected in Suriyat's maps when the area was last mapped over a week ago.
- Secondly, the capture of Ivanovska by Russia was important because it's part of Russia's 3 pronged attack on Chaviv Yar along with attacks from the north at Borynivka into Kalinivka and the canal microdistrict.
- If Ivanovska is not under Russian control as previously thought, it complicates matters, because Russia will want to secure the area before pushing further south. The Ukrainians could use it to counterattack.
- Jonathan confirms that this is good news for the Ukrainians and Andrew wasn't 100% sure but has since updated his map. Jonathan will update his map tomorrow.
- Moving south to Avdiivka, the Russians are advancing in the Novoprokosso area - a small village that both mappers have now showing as under Russian control.
- Andrew Perpetua speculates that Russia will likely take the area around Kalevka, as they are moving slowly along the Kalevka dam, having (possibly) repaired the bridge there, which was previously destroyed by a Russian missile.
- Andrew believes that Ukraine is making a slow, operational withdrawal, allowing Russia to take this land at a cost, before making a stand behind the natural barrier of the water features there.
- Jonathan notes that, whilst Russia is making gains here, there is a cost (casualties and equipment).
Southern Front Line - Mariinka
🎦 07:24-10:19⏩
- Moving further south to Mariinka, Russia has made some gains into Heirovka.
- Jonathan discusses footage of two separate large-scale Russian vehicle attacks - the first, an attack yesterday with 19 vehicles, 14 of which were destroyed.
- The second, with 16 vehicles was repelled (no geolocation as yet) but likely in the Avdiivka sector near Kurakhove or Mariinka.
- This is significant because there have been very few reports of large-scale Russian attacks recently due to a shortage of men and materiel - attacks have typically involved 1-3 vehicles at a time.
- Jonathan hypothesises that Russia has been stockpiling in order to launch these larger attacks, but based on what we have seen, they are not proving to be successful.
- Jonathan reminds viewers that, although Russia is making some small gains, they are coming at a high cost and that in the long run, this will weaken the Russian position - potentially leading to a future Ukrainian counter-offensive once Russia has exhausted its offensive capabilities. Jonathan acknowledges that this is speculation, but it is a plausible scenario.
- Jonathan reminds viewers that we are currently in the window where Russia would have wanted to make significant gains, now that the weather is more conducive to warfare. However, this doesn't appear to be happening, as the progress being made is marginal.
Southern Frontline and Dnipro River Delta
🎦 10:19-10:24⏩
No changes on the southern frontline, or in the Dnipro River Delta area.
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Analysis of Russian Offensive
🎦 10:24-11:31⏩
- Despite the current conditions being optimal for Russia to make significant gains, we are not seeing this, and the current rate of advance is comparable to the last 6 months.
- The one exception to this was the attack on Kharkiv, which Jonathan believes to have been an operational disaster. Jonathan doubts that this offensive will yield positive results for Russia in the long term.
- Jonathan shares his opinion that Russia's military tactics don't seem to make sense - they are making very slow progress and at great cost.
Wrap Up
🎦 11:31-11:47⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, reminding them to like, subscribe and share before signing off. He mentions that he will see some viewers in person at his talk tomorrow where they can enjoy "a cheeky pint and a bit of a chinwag"
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"They, yeah, just, there doesn't seem to be an awful lot of sense to the way they are conducting themselves militarily."
