German Aid to Ukraine Interview: Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA

"We are planning for the future since day one, basically. And I think that's something to be proud of"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-02:35⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video and introduces his guest, "German Aid to Ukraine," a Twitter account that tracks and reports on German aid to Ukraine. He encourages viewers to follow the account on Twitter and thanks the guest for joining. The guest introduces himself as someone from Eastern Germany who started this project due to what he felt was poor reporting on German aid to Ukraine. He mentions that while Oryx was a good resource, it lacked detail and didn't cover all aspects of aid. Jonathan highlights the guest's website and blog, which provide detailed information on German military support packages.

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The Evolution of German Aid to Ukraine

🎦 02:36-03:13⏩

Jonathan prompts the guest to discuss the evolution of German aid from the initial "5,000 helmets" narrative to its current status as a major contributor. He points out that some consider Germany to have overtaken the US as the largest donor, though it's at least the second largest.

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Early German Military Aid and The Media Narrative

🎦 03:13-05:26⏩

The guest clarifies that while the initial German aid was limited compared to current levels, the "5,000 helmets" narrative is misleading. The first delivery after the full-scale invasion included 1,000 Panzerfaust 3 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger MANPADS, pledged on February 26th, two days after the invasion began, and confirmed visually in Ukraine in March. Regarding heavy weapons, he acknowledges that while all countries could have acted faster, Germany was relatively early in pledging and delivering the first Western-made IRIS-T air defence system. Additionally, Germany and the US jointly pledged and delivered the first Western IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles), with Germany even delivering its Marders before the US delivered Bradleys. Jonathan reiterates that Germany's contributions, particularly in air defence, appear to have been undervalued or overlooked in media coverage.

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Germany's Leading Role in Air Defence: IRIS-T, Patriot Systems & New Coalition

🎦 05:26-07:23⏩

The guest emphasises Germany's significant role in providing air defence to Ukraine. He states that Germany is likely the largest provider of air defence systems overall, with numerous IRIS-T SLM (medium-range) and SLS (short-range) systems pledged, ensuring a consistent flow until at least 2025. Germany has also delivered two Patriot systems, one more than the US, and two extra launchers for the Patriot system. Jonathan mentions the recent delivery of a second Patriot battery to Ukraine. The guest confirms that Germany, France, and the US have formed a new air defence coalition for Ukraine. He explains the roles each country will play: Germany is responsible for training, the US will focus on providing systems (likely more Patriots), and France will oversee the organisation and command structure.

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Integrated Air Defence Network & Strategic Deployment

🎦 07:23-09:29⏩

Jonathan describes a new integrated air defence system reportedly provided to Ukraine, likely by the US. This system allows for the integration of both NATO and Soviet-era air defence systems, enabling a centralised command to identify threats and deploy the most effective countermeasure. The guest expresses unfamiliarity with this specific system but acknowledges its potential significance. He confirms that at least two of the three German-delivered IRIS-T systems are stationed in Kyiv, along with several Gepard SPAAGs (Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns). The exact locations of other deployed systems remain unconfirmed. Jonathan notes recent footage of what appears to be a Gepard operating near Odesa, a city facing challenges in defending against Russian drone and missile attacks on its infrastructure.

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Protecting Ukrainian Cities vs Protecting the Frontline

🎦 09:29-11:17⏩

Jonathan observes that Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukrainian cities force Ukraine to deploy its most advanced air defence systems for urban protection, preventing their use on the front lines, where they could be crucial in countering Russian airpower. He has a "light bulb moment," realizing that both Ukraine and Russia are employing similar tactics by launching drones and missiles into each other's territory, forcing the deployment of air defence assets away from the front. The guest agrees, highlighting how the presence of additional air defence systems on the frontline would significantly impact Ukraine's ability to protect its troops and conduct offensive operations. He points out that the footage of Ukrainian FPV (First Person View) drones targeting Russian tanks, for example, would be less frequent if Russia were not relentlessly attacking Ukrainian cities, freeing up those air defence systems for frontline deployment.

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German Domestic Politics and Support for Ukraine

🎦 11:17-14:28⏩

Jonathan shifts the conversation to German domestic politics and public support for Ukraine. He acknowledges Olaf Scholz's strong rhetoric framing Russia's actions as an existential threat to Germany and the EU. He questions whether Scholz has had a "light bulb moment," leading to the increase in German military aid. The guest believes Scholz hasn't fundamentally changed but that Germany's decreased dependence on Russia for energy has allowed him greater freedom to speak and act against Russia. He points out that Scholz still exhibits hesitancy in decision-making (citing Taurus missiles and Leopards as examples) and remains aligned with the US under Biden's leadership.

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The Influence of the AFD and Public Opinion on Military Aid

🎦 14:28-16:20⏩

Jonathan raises concerns about the influence of the far-right AFD party in Germany, particularly in the guest's home region of Eastern Germany. He asks whether the AFD, with its pro-Russian leanings, poses a challenge to continued German support for Ukraine. The guest reassures Jonathan that a recent poll indicated a vast majority of Germans still support arms deliveries to Ukraine, with a desire to see Ukraine liberate its territory. He acknowledges that a minority, particularly on the left and right, opposes aid but emphasises that they do not represent the majority view.

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Scholz's Approach to Leopard 2 and Taurus Deliveries

🎦 16:20-19:09⏩

Jonathan refers to Scholz's apparent alignment with Biden, noting the situation with Leopard tanks, where Scholz reportedly waited for Biden to commit to sending Abrams tanks before agreeing to Leopard deliveries. He asks if this is also the case with the Taurus cruise missiles and if Scholz prefers the US to take the lead. The guest confirms that Scholz publicly stated his desire to ensure the US was sending Abrams before committing to Leopards. Regarding the Taurus, the guest believes Scholz is using similar tactics, waiting for the US to provide comparable long-range cruise missiles before authorising Taurus deliveries. He argues that various explanations and excuses offered by Scholz seem irrelevant, with the core issue being the US not providing similar capabilities. The guest expresses pessimism about the US sending long-range cruise missiles anytime soon, which would, in his view, prevent Scholz from sending Taurus. Jonathan, however, suggests that Scholz's strategy with the Leopards was effective, as it pressured the US into providing Abrams, which wouldn't have happened otherwise. He acknowledges that while earlier Leopard deliveries would have been ideal, getting Abrams into the equation was a significant achievement.

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Germany's Regular Flow of Military Equipment to Ukraine

🎦 19:09-21:27⏩

Jonathan highlights Germany's consistent provision of smaller but meaningful assistance packages, including trucks, armoured recovery vehicles, bridge-laying systems, and other logistical equipment. He emphasises the importance of these deliveries, particularly the large HX81 and Zetros trucks crucial for transporting ammunition and equipment. He asks if Germany is taking a leading role in providing these types of technical vehicles. The guest clarifies that these deliveries are not part of formal packages but rather a continuous flow of arms provided weekly. He believes Germany is supplying everything Ukraine needs except cruise missiles, from ammunition to tanks. He emphasises the importance of logistics in warfare, drawing on quotes from military figures like Eisenhower. He expresses satisfaction with Germany's consistent delivery of logistical vehicles and praises their efforts. Jonathan echoes this sentiment, acknowledging the impressive range and usefulness of the equipment provided. He recounts anecdotes from the beginning of the war when he would praise Germany's contributions, receiving thanks from Germans who felt their country's efforts were being overlooked in international media. He asks the guest if he feels Germany has been unfairly treated by the media.

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Germany's Leading Role and Media Criticism

🎦 21:27-24:07⏩

The guest believes that Germany has faced unfair criticism from the media since the beginning of the war, attributing it to their leading role, which necessitates acting accordingly. He cites the Taurus missile situation as an example, understanding Scholz's desire for the US to provide similar capabilities but arguing that Germany should take the lead when the US is unwilling. This perceived hesitancy, he believes, is why the media and social media users criticise Germany for not doing enough. Jonathan points out that Scholz's recent rhetoric suggests a willingness to step up when other nations falter, indicating a possible shift in his stance on Taurus deliveries. He highlights the impressive list of technical vehicles provided by Germany, from load-handling systems to bridge-laying tanks, semi-trailers, and Mercedes-Benz Zetros trucks, further demonstrating Germany's significant and valuable support for Ukraine.

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The Skynex Air Defence System

🎦 24:07-27:42⏩

Jonathan points out the Skynex air defence system on the list of German aid, noting it's a new system from Rheinmetall, with prototypes undergoing testing in Ukraine. The guest reveals a "mystery" surrounding the Skynex deliveries. Contradictory statements from Rheinmetall and the German government have created confusion about whether the systems have been delivered. He mentions that the Rheinmetall CEO had initially claimed delivery, which was later refuted. Scholz stated that both systems had been sent, but this remains unconfirmed by both the German government and Ukraine. The guest notes that images of Skynex systems in Ukraine have surfaced, suggesting they might have been operational for over six months. However, he emphasises that Rheinmetall has pledged to deliver both systems by the end of the year, ensuring their presence in Ukraine within two weeks if they honour their commitment. Jonathan speculates that Rheinmetall's reluctance to confirm delivery might stem from the system's prototype status and a desire to maintain secrecy, while Ukraine might be eager to showcase its effectiveness. He jokingly suggests that an active warzone is the best testing ground for arms manufacturers, highlighting the potential utility of the Skynex system, which fires projectiles at a high rate to intercept incoming threats.

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Rheinmetall's Role in Supporting Ukraine: Ammunition Production and Beyond

🎦 27:42-34:56⏩

Jonathan focuses on the prominence of Rheinmetall in news related to aid to Ukraine. He acknowledges that while Rheinmetall isn't the largest arms manufacturer globally (BAE Systems is larger), it consistently appears in reports about repair facilities, production collaborations, and investments in Ukraine. He notes that Rheinmetall is involved in diverse sectors beyond arms manufacturing and asks the guest to elaborate on their role in supporting Ukraine. The guest confirms that Rheinmetall is the largest German arms manufacturer and among the top 100 globally, making their significant role in supporting Ukraine logical. He believes financial interests are driving their involvement, with artillery ammunition production being their primary focus. Rheinmetall aims to produce 700,000 artillery shells next year (increasing their forecast from 600,000), with a significant portion earmarked for Ukraine. While their leading role is in ammunition production, Rheinmetall also contributes to armoured vehicles (Marder IFV) and air defence (Skynex). Notably, they were the first Western company to open a factory for maintenance and production of Western-made military vehicles inside Ukraine during the war. Jonathan shifts the discussion towards Ukraine's evolving approach in appealing for international support, observing a shift from moral arguments to a more pragmatic focus on economic benefits. He argues that the messaging on the war should have incorporated economic, political, geopolitical, and military-strategic arguments alongside moral pleas. This includes highlighting job creation, tax revenue, and economic opportunities associated with supporting Ukraine's defence industry.

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Economic Arguments for Supporting Ukraine & German Aid Spending

🎦 34:56-37:40⏩

Jonathan asks the guest if these economic arguments are prevalent in Germany. The guest responds that he hasn't heard much about job creation arguments in Germany, although he's aware that a significant portion of German aid is spent within Germany, albeit for Ukrainian causes. He cites a recent update revealing that Germany has provided €27.8 billion in bilateral aid to Ukraine since the war began, with €7-8 billion allocated for social benefits for Ukrainian refugees in Germany. He emphasises that while the money is used in Germany, it ultimately benefits Ukraine. Jonathan agrees, believing that economic arguments, unfortunately, hold more sway than moral ones when dealing with politically resistant individuals.

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German Political Support for Military Aid: The Greens and Other Parties

🎦 37:40-43:10⏩

Jonathan expresses surprise at the strong pro-Ukraine and pro-militarization rhetoric coming from German politicians, particularly Annalena Baerbock, the Foreign Minister and a member of the Green Party. He finds it unexpected, given the Green Party's traditional association with pacifist movements. The guest acknowledges this change, stating that such a stance would have been improbable 10 or 20 years ago. He attributes the Green Party's evolution to the leadership of Baerbock and Robert Habeck, the Vice Chancellor, who advocated for arms deliveries to Ukraine as early as 2021 and visited the country. Habeck faced criticism for his pro-Ukraine stance but worked to shift perspectives within his party. Jonathan draws a comparison with the UK, where both the Conservative and Labour parties are strongly committed to supporting Ukraine, ensuring continuity in aid regardless of the upcoming election. He contrasts this with the uncertainty surrounding US support under a potential Republican administration, particularly if Donald Trump returns to power. He asks about the remaining term of the current German government and if there is broad political consensus on supporting Ukraine. The guest clarifies that the Left Party (Die Linke) is effectively gone, replaced by a new party led by Sahra Wagenknecht, which is unlikely to be significantly different in its stance on Ukraine. The AFD and Wagenknecht's new party are firmly against supporting Ukraine, aiming to normalise relations with Russia. However, the governing coalition (SPD, Greens, and FDP) and the main opposition party (CDU), which held power under Merkel, are all in favour of continued aid to Ukraine. The guest assures Jonathan that even with a potential change in government, support for Ukraine is secure in Germany, as both the CDU and the current coalition are committed to aiding Ukraine.

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Rheinmetall's Repair Centres and Indigenous Production in Ukraine

🎦 43:10-46:59⏩

Jonathan returns to the topic of Rheinmetall, mentioning their establishment of repair centres for Ukrainian Leopard tanks. He asks about the significance of these centres, the logistical challenges of transporting tanks out of Ukraine for repairs in Poland or Germany, and whether Rheinmetall is building repair facilities within Ukraine. The guest confirms that Rheinmetall has opened a factory near Kyiv for maintaining Western-made vehicles and plans to lease factories for production, citing the Fuchs APC as an example. Jonathan recalls a discussion he heard about the production capacity of these factories, with hopes for significant output. He asks about the timeframe for establishing indigenous production in Ukraine. The guest cites recent statements from Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, who predicts the conclusion of contracts for the production of Lynx IFVs and Fuchs APCs in Ukraine by early 2024. While the exact timeline for production is unclear, Reznikov estimates a range of 6-7 months to 12-13 months. The guest adds that Rheinmetall is already producing Lynx IFVs for Ukraine, potentially in Hungary, and has received signals from the German government approving their export to Ukraine. Jonathan recalls discussions about the Fuchs factory being relocated from Germany to Morocco, suggesting that production facilities might need to be established from scratch.

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The Rise of Indigenous Production and Business Opportunities in Ukraine

🎦 46:59-51:03⏩

Jonathan views the developments with indigenous production as positive, primarily driven by German companies. He contrasts Rheinmetall's initiative with BAE Systems, noting that the British company seemed to follow Rheinmetall's lead in announcing plans for repair shops and production facilities in Ukraine. While acknowledging the moral aspect, he emphasizes the business opportunities for these companies in Ukraine. The guest agrees that financial interests are at play, stating that arms companies inherently profit from war. He highlights the increasing collaboration between German companies and Ukraine, citing KMW/KNDS and Quantum Systems (Vector drones) as examples. Quantum Systems has opened a service and repair centre in Ukraine.

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Vector Drones and Ukraine's Reconnaissance Advantage

🎦 51:03-53:14⏩

Jonathan picks up on the mention of Vector drones, asking about their capabilities and significance, given Germany's delivery of 152 units. The guest describes them as modern, expensive surveillance drones costing around €180,000 each in 2022. They are regularly delivered to Ukraine, multiple times a month. The guest highlights their advanced features, including AI-powered anti-jamming technology for autonomous operation. He praises the support provided by companies like Quantum Systems, which have set up repair shops in Ukraine. Jonathan observes that Ukraine appears to hold a reconnaissance advantage, despite Russia's Orlan drones. He attributes this to Ukraine's access to high-tech drones, satellite systems, and Western intelligence, including satellite imagery, which is crucial for targeting time-sensitive objectives. The guest confirms that Denmark also delivered 25 units of the Hydrant UAV, with Germany providing 100 and Ukraine crowdfunding some. He acknowledges their use for surveillance purposes but isn't highly familiar with their specifics. He mentions the recent confirmed loss of the first Hydrant.

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MARS II Rocket Launchers and Ammunition

🎦 53:14-54:40⏩

Jonathan brings up the MARS II rocket launchers, of which Germany has supplied five. He notes their similarity to HIMARS but with tracks instead of wheels. He asks about the possibility of providing more and the ammunition situation. The guest states that Germany pledged 480 M26 rockets in September, which are not cluster munitions like those used by the US. These rockets are unique in carrying anti-tank mines. He confirms that Germany recently delivered some of these rockets, though the exact quantity is undisclosed. The guest describes the MARS II as a tracked version of HIMARS with double the firepower, carrying 12 rockets compared to HIMARS's 6. He acknowledges that the US has delivered more HIMARS but points out that combined Western deliveries of M270 MLRS (including those from the UK, Norway, Italy, and France) are comparable to the US HIMARS numbers.

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Panzerhaubitze 2000s: Deployment, Effectiveness & Future Deliveries

🎦 54:40-58:16⏩

Jonathan shifts the focus to the Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) self-propelled howitzers. He recalls reports of these systems being fired so intensively that their barrels suffered wear, requiring repairs in Lithuania and Germany. He asks if Ukraine has enough PzH 2000s, noting that none have been confirmed lost, and about the availability of these systems in German stocks. The guest states that Germany still has PzH 2000s in its stocks but not enough for its own army. He points out that this is a common issue with many systems, including Leopard tanks and MARS II, as the German Bundeswehr is underfunded. He confirms that Ukraine hasn't lost any PzH 2000s, though one was damaged by a drone last year. He attributes the PzH 2000s' survival to their "hedgehog" armour, providing additional protection on the hull, but believes their deployment strategy is also crucial. He explains that Ukrainian PzH 2000s are primarily used for counter-battery fire, allowing them to quickly react and withdraw to cover, minimizing exposure. In contrast, Polish Krab howitzers are deployed on the frontline, resulting in higher losses. The guest believes that using PzH 2000s in a similar manner would lead to higher casualties. He doesn't anticipate further PzH 2000 deliveries, as Germany has sent two Zuzana 2 howitzers, with more in production in Slovakia under a contract with Denmark and Norway.

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RCH 155 Howitzer and Fire-on-the-Move Capability

🎦 58:16-59:46⏩

Jonathan mentions the RCH 155 howitzer, which is expected to be operational sooner than initially anticipated. He questions the necessity of its fire-on-the-move capability, assuming it would compromise accuracy. The guest corrects Jonathan, stating that the original timeline for the RCH 155 is still on track. He explains that firing while moving makes it difficult for the enemy to conduct counter-battery fire. He clarifies that the system doesn't travel at high speeds while firing but maintains constant motion, which is a significant advantage.

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Continued German Aid, Future Leopard Deliveries & Political Stability

🎦 59:46-01:01⏩
:00
Jonathan emphasizes that Germany's continued support for Ukraine, with several systems in the pipeline for delivery, demonstrates a long-term commitment. He feels more optimistic about Ukraine's future, given the ongoing flow of aid. He asks about future Leopard deliveries, noting that Germany's own stocks are depleted. The guest states that Germany has recently acquired new Leopard 2 tanks but not in sufficient numbers. He believes the only upcoming Leopard 2 delivery will be 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Denmark and the Netherlands, procured jointly and expected in 2024. Regarding Leopard 1A5s, he doesn't foresee any coming from Switzerland or other countries. However, around 160-170 Leopard 1A5s are in the pipeline for delivery to Ukraine, making them the most widely used Western main battle tank in Ukraine unless the US provides a significant number of Abrams.

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Leopard 1A5 Performance, Armour Upgrades & Future Hopes

🎦 01:01:00-01:03⏩
:45⏩
Jonathan asks about the capabilities of the Leopard 1A5s, specifically their fire control systems, optics, and thermal imaging, assuming they are superior to Russian tanks. The guest confirms this, highlighting the positive feedback from Ukrainian soldiers. The Leopard 1A5s have better electronics and range, allowing them to engage Russian tanks beyond the Russians' effective firing range, a significant advantage. He acknowledges the Leopard 1A5's thin armour, citing recent footage of one being disabled by nearby artillery detonations. The crew escaped, and the tank was reportedly recovered for repairs. The guest mentions that Ukrainian soldiers are working on adding ERA (Explosive Reactive Armour) to the Leopard 1A5s, improving their protection, though not to the level of a Leopard 2.

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What Germany Could Do Better and What to Be Proud Of

🎦 01:03:45-01:06⏩
:27⏩
Jonathan asks for the guest's perspective on what Germany could do better. The guest struggles to find a significant area for improvement, given the robust pipelines for tanks, howitzers, and air defence systems extending to 2024 and 2025. He reiterates that the Taurus cruise missile is the primary gap, believing even a limited delivery of 20-50 units would significantly benefit Ukraine without unduly impacting Germany's capabilities. Jonathan, channeling Anthony Michael Hall's character "Brian" from the film "The Breakfast Club," asks what the guest is most proud of regarding Germany's actions. The guest emphasizes the consistent weekly deliveries of arms to Ukraine, a commitment he believes is commendable and sets Germany apart from many other countries. He praises Germany's long-term planning approach and its dedication to supporting Ukraine. Jonathan expresses his appreciation for the conversation, stating that he feels more confident about continued support from Germany, the second largest contributor to Ukraine's defence. He finds the long-term nature of German commitments reassuring.

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Hopes for the Future and the Importance of US Support

🎦 01:06:27-01:13⏩
:46⏩
Jonathan asks about the guest's hopes and worries for the future. The guest expresses hope for a swift end to the war but acknowledges that most people anticipate its continuation for several years. He emphasizes the need for collective international effort, not solely relying on Germany. He welcomes the political change in Poland, believing Poland's strong pro-EU stance under Donald Tusk will make it an even more valuable partner for Ukraine and the EU. He underscores the importance of continued US support, stating that no country can match the US in terms of military aid provided. He argues that every country, including Poland, could adopt Germany's approach of supporting its defence industry to produce weapons for Ukraine. He highlights Germany's consistent pledges of aid packages, worth hundreds of millions to billions of euros, and its increased defence budget, though clarifying that it's not a doubling of the overall budget but a specific increase for planned 2024 spending. Jonathan expresses concerns about the rising military spending of Russia, India, and China, all members of the BRICS alliance. He agrees that other allies of Ukraine, including the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, must step up their support. He believes that Poland's pro-EU stance under Tusk will significantly strengthen their partnership with Ukraine and the EU as a whole. The guest emphasizes the crucial role of indigenous production in Ukraine, stating that around 80% of German military aid comes from its industry. He encourages other countries to support their defence industries in supplying Ukraine, rather than relying solely on stockpiles, as industry can produce sustained support. He highlights Germany's regular pledges of aid packages, demonstrating a long-term commitment. He addresses concerns about German budget issues, stating that even before resolving these issues, the Ministry of Defence ensured the financial security of the €1.3 billion aid package pledged in November. He reassures viewers that Ukraine's financial security for military aid from Germany is not a cause for concern.

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Wrap up

🎦 01:13:46-01:16⏩
:35⏩
Jonathan expresses his gratitude to the guest, stating that the conversation has boosted his confidence in Germany's ongoing support for Ukraine. He appreciates the insights provided and the long-term nature of German commitments, comparing it to Norway's five-year aid plan. He proposes future conversations, possibly with a panel discussing these topics. The guest expresses his enjoyment of the conversation and thanks Jonathan for his welcoming and comfortable approach. Jonathan encourages viewers to follow "German Aid to Ukraine" on Twitter, highlighting their informative content and the website (deaidua.org/en) and blog (deaidua.org/news), both in English. He promises to include the links in the video description.

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