Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"You can take your disinformation, you can take your hybrid warfare, and you can freaking jog on."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:44⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War update, apologising that it's a little later than usual. He explains that he has just returned from 10 days on the front lines in Ukraine and has been unwell. He mentions he has progressive multiple sclerosis which is currently affecting his mobility, so he may not be as mobile in the videos for a while.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:44-02:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day which are heavy but cautions that context is needed. Ukrainians are coming under pressure on several fronts with the Russians intensifying their attacks. While Ukrainians are inflicting heavy losses, the lack of artillery ammunition and other equipment is hampering their ability to inflict greater losses. He explains that the situation is "desperate" and that Ukrainians can ill afford to take any losses. Jonathan gives the Russian losses from Ukrainian sources, with the usual caveats, noting that the losses are significant, particularly in several categories.
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Oryx Loss Analysis 17th February
🎦 02:54-04:51⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the Oryx loss figures for 17th February which are presented visually. The ratios are not ideal for Ukrainians at around 3:1, as ideally a 5:1 ratio is needed to make a significant impact on Russian equipment stockpiles. He highlights losses on both sides and notes that while the ratios are not ideal, the value of the Russian losses are much higher than the Ukrainian losses.
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Oryx Loss Analysis 18th February
🎦 04:51-06:45⏩
Jonathan analyses the Oryx figures for 18th February 2024. While the ratios are not as good for Ukrainians, with Russian losses at twice that of Ukrainian, Jonathan notes that the value of Russian equipment lost is much higher.
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5 Day Oryx Loss Analysis
🎦 06:45-07:52⏩
Jonathan presents a 5-day analysis of Oryx figures for Russian losses which are shown visually. He notes that Russian losses are huge, particularly personnel and artillery with significant losses for other categories.
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Mediazona/BBC Russian Losses Data
🎦 07:52-09:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest data from Mediazona and BBC Russia which confirms the identities of over 44,600 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. He emphasises that this figure represents the minimum number, based on data collected from publicly available sources and that the true number will be much higher.
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Russian Jet Losses over 3 days
🎦 09:46-11:24⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian Air Force has confirmed the downing of 4 Russian jets (2 x Su-34s and 2 x Su-35s) over a 3-day period. The first reported downing was near Mariupol and was quickly followed by a second, with unconfirmed reports emerging soon after. Jonathan notes that this represents significant losses of Russian aircraft in a short period, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences, most likely the Patriot system. Jonathan notes an increase in troll activity on his channel following the fall of Avdiivka, commenting on how organised and strategic it appears. He goes on to say that he has no issue with banning trolls from his channels, explaining that this isn't about censorship but about protecting the space from Russian disinformation and hybrid warfare.
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Russian Military Blogger commentary on Jet Losses
🎦 11:24-13:31⏩
Jonathan cites a report from German source "Tendar" which claims that two Russian jets have been shot down south of Mariupol, approximately 80km from Ukrainian positions. Russian military blogger "Romanov" has confirmed the loss of the Su-35. Jonathan notes that it's interesting how Russian military bloggers are not afraid to speak out, highlighting a disparity between the bloggers and what he terms "paid-up trolls". He speculates that Russian plane losses are most likely due to a combination of weapon systems deployed in Southern Ukraine.
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Rostov Hospital Overcrowding
🎦 13:31-14:19⏩
Jonathan reports that hospitals in Rostov, Russia are overcrowded, most likely with wounded Russian soldiers. Given the proximity of Rostov to the front lines near Avdiivka, he speculates that the increase in casualties is likely from the fighting in and around Avdiivka.
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Destruction of Russian Hibka-S Short Range Air Defence System
🎦 14:19-15:19⏩
Jonathan reports that footage has emerged showing the destruction of a Russian Hibka-S short range air defence (SHORAD) system. The system, introduced in 2021, is designed to protect against low flying targets such as drones and aircraft at very close range. The destruction of this relatively new system is a blow to Russian air defence capabilities.
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Ukrainian Forces Repel Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 15:19-16:02⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces have repelled a Russian attack in Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The attack, similar to one the previous day, saw the Russians take significant losses. Jonathan highlights comments from military analyst Tim White who observed that Russia is achieving small gains using overwhelming force against a Ukrainian force struggling with dwindling ammunition supplies.
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Russian War Crimes - Execution of Ukrainian POWs
🎦 16:02-17:11⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian Ground Forces have published a video appearing to show Russian soldiers shooting two Ukrainian Prisoners of War. This follows reports that six Ukrainian POWs were shot in occupied Avdiivka. Jonathan makes reference to images that he shared yesterday showing three Ukrainian POWs who had been executed.
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Drone Update
🎦 17:11-18:09⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian air defences shot down 4 Iranian-made Shahed drones overnight. He notes that it is unlikely that Russia would choose to fire only 4 drones if it had more available, highlighting ongoing issues with drone supplies.
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Explosions reported in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast
🎦 18:09-18:25⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been explosions in occupied Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast. Footage circulating on social media suggests that the explosions were at an oil depot.
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Explosions in Mariupol, Bryansk, Taganrog and Rostov
🎦 18:25-18:43⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been explosions in several locations overnight, including Mariupol, Bryansk (Russia), Taganrog (Russia) and Rostov (Russia).
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Footage of KAB-500 Guided Bomb Attack
🎦 18:43-19:16⏩
Jonathan shares footage from social media showing the impact of a Russian KAB-500 guided bomb.
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Alexei Navalny Update
🎦 19:16-19:55⏩
Jonathan reports that the body of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has not been released to his family. Mediazona has obtained and published CCTV footage that appears to show the removal of Navalny's body from the morgue. Jonathan speculates that the circumstances surrounding the removal of the body point to Navalny having been murdered by Russian authorities.
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Russian Military Correspondent Andrei Kotz arrested on drugs charges
🎦 19:57-21:57⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian military correspondent Andrei Kotz has been arrested on drugs charges. Kotz was allegedly found in possession of 2g of Marijuana. Jonathan notes that trumped up drugs charges are often used to silence critics of the regime. He speculates that this could be related to Kotz's reporting of the war in Ukraine, highlighting the risks taken by anyone who dares to question the official narrative.
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Russian propagandists claim another Ukrainian collaborator poisoned
🎦 21:57-22:26⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian propagandists have claimed that a Russian collaborator in occupied Kherson was poisoned with Ricin in 2022. He notes that this claim follows another report that the Luhansk collaborator was also poisoned. This, he speculates, could be evidence of partisan activity in occupied territories.
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Russian woman speaks out against Putin and the War
🎦 22:26-24:27⏩
Jonathan plays a clip from social media in which an elderly Russian woman criticises Putin and the war, calling him a traitor and accusing him of being responsible for the deaths of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers. Jonathan praises her for speaking out against the war, noting that sadly her views are not widely shared due to the control exercised by the Russian internal security services.
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Germany collects evidence of Russian war crimes
🎦 24:27-25:14⏩
Germany has collected evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine, including more than 500 pieces of evidence and testimony from 160 witnesses.
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New York Times: Most dangerous situation since the war began
🎦 25:14-26:03⏩
Jonathan reports that the New York Times is reporting that the current military situation is the most dangerous since the war began. The situation is reportedly challenging for Ukrainian forces in five locations: Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kramina and Bakhmut. The report states that Russia has amassed large numbers of troops in several areas.
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US Public Support for Ukraine
🎦 26:03-27:25⏩
Jonathan shares a recent poll by the Pew Research Centre which found that 74% of Americans consider the war in Ukraine to be important to US national interests. The poll also found that 59% of Americans describe the war in Ukraine as being important to them personally. While there was a difference in opinion between Democrat and Republican voters, the poll highlights a high level of support for Ukraine across American society.
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20 Days in Mariupol wins BAFTA
🎦 27:25-28:42⏩
Jonathan expresses his delight at the news that the documentary 20 Days in Mariupol has won a BAFTA award. The documentary, which tells the story of the siege of Mariupol, is also nominated for an Oscar.
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Wrap Up
🎦 28:42-end
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share. He announces that he will be hosting a livestream with Greg Terry, who is currently in Ukraine, to discuss the situation on the front lines.
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