Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It's not about taking back the territory you see restoring the position where we retreated well that hasn't happened there so that is just one of these earlier ones of uh inflicting maximum losses on our enemy and destroying significant part of their artillery and armored vehicles using the capabilities of our weapons and military equipment so drones and and artillery there for example"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update, mentioning the detailed mapping work done by JR. He explains that he won't be doing a granular analysis using ISW data today.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Overview of Russian gains and losses
🎦 00:33-01:20⏩
Jonathan discusses various sources' assessments of Russian gains and losses, noting that while there are minor variations, overall, Russia appears to have made significant territorial gains, with estimates ranging from 10 to 12 square kilometers.
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Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi's statement
🎦 01:20-02:51⏩
- Jonathan highlights a statement from General Zaluzhnyi, emphasizing the Ukrainian military's focus on maximizing Russian equipment losses as a key objective.
- He connects this to his previous analyses, suggesting that Ukraine's strategy shifted towards attrition after initial setbacks during the counteroffensive.
Incident in the Sea of Azov
🎦 02:51-04:00⏩
Jonathan mentions reports of a possible submarine incident in the Sea of Azov, with a Russian submarine spotted being towed. He also notes reports of a fire on a Russian Coast Guard vessel in the same area, resulting in potential casualties.
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Eastern Front Update: Kreminna, Svatove, Bakhmut
🎦 04:00-04:22⏩
Jonathan reports no significant changes on the eastern front lines around Kreminna, Svatove, and Bakhmut. He notes this as positive news, particularly the stabilization around Bakhmut, given recent difficulties in the region.
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Avdiivka Front: Russian advances and Ukrainian concerns
🎦 04:22-06:50⏩
- Jonathan details concerning Russian gains around Avdiivka, with advances in areas like Podil’ne, Olivka, Ton’ke, and Novokal’s’ke.
- He expresses particular worry about the Russian advance on Novokal’s’ke, emphasizing its strategic importance in preventing larger encirclements.
- He cites a report from Euromaidan Press that echoes his concerns about the significance of Novokal’s’ke and Pobjeda in holding back the Russian offensive.
Avdiivka Front: Analysis of the situation and Ukrainian defenses
🎦 06:50-11:33⏩
- Jonathan examines the situation in Avdiivka, noting reports of Ukrainian forces retreating to more defensible positions behind the river.
- He highlights the potential for an operational withdrawal to bleed Russian forces while acknowledging the challenging circumstances.
- He delves into the situation in Olivka, where Ukrainian forces, specifically the 3rd Assault and 25th Airborne Brigades, reportedly repelled a Russian advance, citing sources like Syriac Maps and Getty.
- He discusses the strategic importance of Pobjeda in relation to Kostyantynivka and the potential for Ukrainian HIMARS to target the outskirts of Mariupol from that area.
- Jonathan then criticizes the Ukrainian government for failing to establish adequate defensive lines further back from Avdiivka, suggesting that this oversight was due to overconfidence in relying on external support for ammunition.
- He expresses understanding for the Ukrainian military's unpreparedness for the intensity of the Russian assault in that area, citing the use of FAB bombs and unconventional tactics. However, he argues that the government should have done more to fortify those lines, especially considering Russia's own extensive defensive preparations.
Krasnohorivka: Fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks
🎦 11:33-13:51⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to Krasnohorivka, where there are conflicting reports. While some sources suggest Russian advances into the settlement, others indicate a Ukrainian counterattack that pushed Russian forces back.
- He cites reports from both Surat Maps and the Third Assault Brigade, which claim to have dislodged Russian troops from Krasnohorivka.
- Despite the uncertainty, Jonathan acknowledges evidence of Russian cleanup operations in the southern part of the settlement, suggesting at least temporary control of some areas.
Southern Front Update: Velika Novosilka and Robotyne
🎦 13:51-18:14⏩
- Jonathan moves on to the southern front line, specifically Velika Novosilka, where there were initial reports of Ukrainian pushbacks.
- He clarifies that these reports were likely corrections of previous Russian advances rather than significant Ukrainian offensives.
- He expresses surprise, however, at the Ukrainian pushback in Robotyne, a strategically less vital area, suggesting that it might serve as a buffer zone to protect the more crucial Orikhiv from Russian attacks.
- Jonathan cites Syriac Maps and Getty, confirming Ukrainian control of previously lost positions in Robotyne, including a crucial trench line.
- He details the back-and-forth nature of the fighting in this area, with both sides having gained and lost ground multiple times.
Kinburn Spit: Discussion on Ukrainian presence and Russian reports
🎦 18:14-19:53⏩
- Jonathan talks about the situation in Kinburn Spit, where a small contingent of Ukrainian marines continues to hold out against Russian forces.
- He discusses the possibility of another Ukrainian bridgehead in Kozachi Laheri, separate from the one in Kinburn, based on reports from Russian sources, but notes the lack of confirmation and the uncertain situation in that area.
- He expresses his view that the Ukrainians might soon withdraw from Kinburn, given the difficult circumstances they face, but acknowledges the significant losses they have inflicted on the Russians.
Correction regarding Marjorie Taylor Greene's comments
🎦 19:53-21:10⏩
- Jonathan issues a correction to a previous statement, acknowledging that the Marjorie Taylor Greene account he cited was a parody.
- However, he points out the irony of the situation, given that the parody account's statements aligned closely with Greene's actual views.
- He uses this as an example of Poe's Law, where parody becomes indistinguishable from reality due to the increasingly absurd nature of contemporary discourse.
- He emphasizes the importance of avoiding misinformation, even unintentional.
Viewer comment and closing remarks
🎦 21:10-22:01⏩
- Jonathan shares a viewer's comment who listens to his videos while visiting scenic locations like the Grand Canyon, expressing amusement and asking for similar anecdotes from other viewers.
- He concludes the video with his usual sign-off.
