Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
"I think this is proving too difficult for the Ukrainians. And realistically, I would take this time to just stop attacking pretty much in most places."
03/10/2023
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war frontline for October 3, 2023. He advises viewers to check the key on his map to understand the lines and says a shareable Google Maps link will be available soon, though some issues still need to be cleared up. He recommends viewing the map in Google Earth for now.
Return to top⤴️
General Counter-Offensive Assessment
Jonathan believes the Ukrainian counter-offensive has largely stalled after initial attacks near Malatoq and Kamachka resulted in heavy equipment losses. The Ukrainians switched to attrition tactics using HIMARS, precision-guided munitions, and drones. However, pressure to make territorial gains has led to costly frontal assaults on Russian trench lines that the Russians have reinforced with troops and equipment. In Jonathan's view, the Ukrainians should pause major attacks in most areas and focus on severely degrading Russian armor and logistics over the next couple months using standoff weapons. Once the Russians are sufficiently weakened, the Ukrainians can employ electronic warfare to neutralize Russian drones and launch a more effective offensive, bolstered by stockpiled artillery and mortar rounds. Despite the current difficulties, Ukraine is still in a better position than a year ago with an expanded arsenal. If they can bring more Western weapon systems online by spring 2024, they could be poised for success. The Russians likely lack the armored forces for a major counter-offensive of their own, though some shaping operations suggest they could attempt attacks in the northeast.
Return to top⤴️
Bakhmut Area
- A Russian spokesperson said forces aim to hold the defensive line along the railway south of Bakhmut at all costs. Their tactic of immediate counter-attacks whenever they lose ground is attritional for the Ukrainians.
- Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces have pushed the Russians back across the railway line near Klishchiivka, though fighting continues. Both mappers depict some Ukrainian gains in this area.
- A soldier reports the Ukrainians have crossed the railway east of Andriivka and the Russians are bringing in reinforcements from other sectors to try to hold the line.
- If the Ukrainians can attack successfully north of Bakhmut near Yahidne, it could put Russian troops near the town in a difficult position over the winter.
Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Fronts
- The Ukrainians have made some small advances northwest of Novomykhailivka and are slowly approaching the 2014 line in that area.
- Geolocated footage from a pro-Russian source shows Ukrainian troops occupying trenches near Novomayorsk that are being attacked by Russian naval infantry, indicating a Ukrainian advance.
- The Russians have made minor gains east of Vodyane but at the cost of significant armor losses in failed attacks over recent days.
- Around Robotyne, the Ukrainians seem to have held positions they took in mid-September but have struggled to advance further. The front lines have been largely static for over two weeks, suggesting the offensive has culminated here for now.
- Jonathan believes the Ukrainians should focus on shaping the battlefield over the winter, barring a sudden Russian collapse, and prepare for a renewed offensive in the spring with additional Western equipment and training.
Southern Front and Kherson
Russian forces continue to bomb Kherson and other areas along the southern front with impunity using Kh-22, Kh-101, Kh-59 and other guided missiles from bombers and attack aircraft. Ukraine currently lacks the air defenses or fighter jets to counter this threat. Jonathan reiterates his view that Patriot batteries should be deployed to protect Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, which could help neutralize Russian aviation if positioned cleverly. However, the systems would need to be guarded by other short-range air defense assets.
Return to top⤴️
Frontline Opinions
- British volunteer Macer Gifford posted an upbeat message saying "great things are happening" and there has been "a lot of movement across the front line" but provided no specifics.
- Finnish soldier Kenneth Grieg reports the Ukrainians have seized control of the railway east of Andriivka and the Russians are frantically building winter fortifications further back near Opytne. He argues the Russians missed an opportunity by not focusing their efforts on a strategically important sector near Avdiivka.
- Grieg also says the Ukrainians have advanced considerably near Novoprokopivka and are approaching a heavily fortified Russian defensive line. If they reach it before winter, those positions could be turned to face the other direction.
- Near Vuhledar, Grieg claims the Ukrainian attacks are continuing, especially at night, but are being hindered by Russian masses of infantry and kamikaze drones. However, he assesses Russia's overall offensive capacity as "practically zero" after their elite units were pushed back and worn out.
Wrap up
Jonathan asks viewers to share their own thoughts on his analysis and the best course of action for Ukraine going forward. He expresses appreciation for those who have contacted YouTube about the demonetization of his channel. As always, he requests that viewers like, subscribe and share his videos to show their support.
Return to top⤴️
