Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"Remarkably Kiev's air force is growing more survivable as time goes on firing new western missiles over greater distance and thus avoiding russian air defenses"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update from his hotel room while on holiday. The timing and depth of coverage may be a bit different as a result. He thanks JR for helping with the maps while he's away.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian Losses
- 540 killed in action, 7 tanks, 8 APVs, 12 artillery systems (low), 4 MLRS (high), 1 anti-aircraft system, 28 drones, 18 cruise missiles, 10 vehicles/fuel tanks, 1 special equipment
- Relatively low average figures, but still significant, especially 4 MLRS lost
- Jonathan wonders how much longer Ukraine can sustain losing 20-40 artillery pieces per day before Russia faces an artillery shortage
Mapping Russian and Ukrainian Losses
- Andrew Perpetua is tracking equipment losses daily based on open-source data, similar to Oryx (who is stopping in October). His data shows Russia lost slightly more equipment than Ukraine in the past day.
- Perpetua sometimes has difficulty identifying destroyed equipment from blurry drone footage. He relies on the mapping community to help identify losses.
Russian Airborne (VDV) Losses
- UK intelligence update: VDV commander disclosed 8,500 paratroopers wounded and returned to duty or refused to leave front lines. Video was quickly deleted.
- Extrapolating figures, assessment is at least 50% of 30,000 VDV troops deployed in 2022 have been killed or wounded. Wounded to killed ratio for Russians is poor, possibly as low as 1 to 1.7.
Russian Propagandist Admits High Losses
- Propagandist Skabeyeva claimed 284,000 Russian obituaries found on social media, higher than official figures and Ukrainian estimates (~250,000)
- Significant moment of a propagandist admitting far higher losses than previously acknowledged, telling the Russian people a "home truth"
- Jonathan questions what Russian trolls think of this admission and suggests official Russian figures aren't as "wildly hopeful" as trolls claim
Ukrainian Air Force Survivability Improving
- Ukrainian Air Force growing more survivable over time, firing new Western missiles (HARM, Storm Shadow, Scalp) from greater distances to avoid Russian air defences
- Shifted to standoff attacks beyond range of most Russian air defences, greatly boosting pilot life expectancy
- After losing 60+ jets in 2022, only 7 lost so far in 2023 - a fifth of the previous loss rate
Friendly Fire Incident?
- Unconfirmed report that Russian troops dressed in Ukrainian uniforms for an operation behind enemy lines near Robotyne were mistaken for Ukrainians by a Russian drone and hit with artillery, causing 32 deaths
- Ukrainian counter-battery fire then struck the Russian artillery position, causing 19 more deaths. The commander who ordered the operation reportedly fled.
- Jonathan advises treating this story with scepticism as details are unclear. Could be untrue.
Ukrainian Tank Sinks in River
- A Ukrainian T-72 tank sank in the Mokri Yali river near Velyka Novosilka. Russians mocked the incident online.
- At least one crew member seen swimming away. Tank may be recoverable depending on steepness of riverbank.
- Jonathan compares it to accidentally drowning tanks while playing the video game World of Tanks - embarrassing and expensive mistake.
Strikes and Incidents
- Russians struck in Kherson region near Khorobki, something significant burning
- Russians shelled Kherson city apartment building overnight, 1 killed, 10 injured
- Fire at warehouse in Krasnodar, Russia - 103 firefighters, 24 equipment involved. Contents of warehouse unknown.
- Missile hit high-rise in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia region. Rescuers had to stop work due to repeated shelling, luckily no victims. "Double tapping" to hit rescuers is a war crime.
Ukrainian Strikes on Crimean Bridges
- Ukraine claimed responsibility for attacks on Chonhar Bridge (Crimea) and bridge near Henichesk, calling them "Storm Shadow missiles" Russia was searching for
- Attacks cause significant disruption to Russian logistics. Chonhar Bridge is shortest route from Crimea to southern front. Henichesk route forces Russians to use longer, poorer roads.
- Leaves Armiyansk as one of the only remaining routes into Crimea. Ukraine systematically closing off all routes.
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Airbases
- Russia claims strong fire and detonations at Starokostiantyniv airfield after Kinzhal hypersonic missile strikes. Also claims hits on tank range and "operational support regiment" in Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia.
- Ukraine says it has protocols to protect aircraft during attacks, most missiles shot down. Some damage to houses, bus station, grain silo.
- Jonathan speculates truth is in the middle - some airbase infrastructure hit but no aircraft destroyed as they would have scrambled jets in time. Runways can be repaired quickly.
Russian Defensive Lines
- Russian last defence lines (Surovikin Line) consistently just out of HIMARS range from Ukrainian front
- Acknowledgement that if Ukraine can get HIMARS within range of Russian logistics routes, situation could deteriorate quickly for Russia
- Over summer, Russia working to close gaps and expand fortifications along highways in occupied areas (see Brady Afrik's mapping)
- Ukraine faces dilemma of attacking sooner with less capability before defences are built up, or waiting for more/better weapons but giving Russia time to strengthen lines
Wrap Up
Jonathan notes this is a longer than usual Part 1 of the update recorded from his hotel room while on holiday. He requests viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. Part 2 of the update will follow shortly.
Return to top⤴️
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No major parts of the transcript were unclear. A few specific place names or equipment types were unfamiliar but the overall content and key points were understood.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract key information about losses, strikes, and other updates
Organize information into topics with clear subheadings
Summarize each topic concisely, keeping Jonathan's insights and opinions
Use British English spelling and grammar
Include an introduction and wrap-up section
Select a key quote that captures the essence of the video
Review for completeness and clarity
