Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you don't know what the Russians are thinking, listen to them and they'll tell you"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATPG video, the first part of the Ukraine War News update for the 24th of May 2024. There's a lot to get through today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report: Russian Losses (23/05/2024)
🎦 00:21-01:46⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the 23rd of May 2024 which he describes as "considerable".
- Personnel: 1,240 (a very high number). Jonathan speculates that the lower figure, compared to the previous week may indicate that the Russian offensive in Kharkiv is "grinding down somewhat"
- Tanks: 13
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 27 (above average)
- Artillery Systems: 42 (over twice the average daily loss)
- MLRS: 3 (a high number)
- Aircraft: 2 x Su-25s (brings the total number of Russian aircraft lost in May to 5 or 6 - a "very bad month for their VKS").
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 56 (well above average).
- Special Equipment: 7
Andrew Perpetua discontinues his equipment loss spreadsheet
🎦 01:46-03:18⏩
Jonathan is clearly upset about the news that Andrew Perpetua (@oryxspioenkop on Twitter) will no longer be posting his equipment loss spreadsheet. Jonathan believes this is a significant loss as he considers this to be one of the most valuable resources for open source verified information about the war. He asks his viewers to contact Andrew on Twitter to let him know how valuable his work is.
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Russian losses - reports from the frontline
🎦 03:18-04:24⏩
Jonathan highlights a recent report from Ukraine's video showing just how deadly the war in Ukraine has become for the Russians - 49 verified Russian dead were found in a 100m stretch of frontline. He goes on to say that he has seen a lot of videos showing large numbers of Russian dead in wooded areas, destroyed areas and "hellscapes" and comments that given the frontline is over 1,000km long, this level of losses is not unreasonable.
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110th Separate Mechanised Brigade shoot down a Russian Su-25
🎦 04:24-05:03⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade have shot down another Russian Su-25 and that there is video evidence of this.
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Ukraine destroys a Russian S-400 air defence system using 5 x ATACMS missiles
🎦 05:03-06:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has destroyed an S-400 air defence system that was located at Mosbina airfield in Donetsk with 5 x ATACMS missiles. Video evidence has now emerged. He comments that using 5 missiles on one air defence site may seem like overkill but the components are valuable and need to be destroyed to prevent them being re-used. The fact that so many missiles were used demonstrates how valuable a target this was to the Ukrainians.
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Components of Russian S-400 system destroyed in ATACMS strike
🎦 06:13-07:03⏩
The following components are confirmed destroyed in the ATACMS strike:
- 2 x S-300/S-400 Air Defence Missile Launchers
- 1 x Air Defence Missile Launcher (damaged)
- 1 x 96L6E Radar
- 1 x S300-400 Control Centre
Casualties are unknown
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OSINT Technical Analysis of the S-400 ATACMS strike
🎦 07:03-07:29⏩
Jonathan refers to analysis from OSINTtechnical. They believe that only 1 x ATACMS missile was used and that this is the first time a Russian 3S350 SAM system has been destroyed by Ukrainian forces. OSINT technical also note that the S-400 battery was using an upgraded 96 (cyrillic text in the transcript) radar instead of the standard 96L6E radar.
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Thomas Tyner: Ukraine using ATACMS as intended - to enable the use of F-16s
🎦 07:29-08:08⏩
Jonathan highlights comments made by Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador on Twitter) who points out that Ukraine is successfully using ATACMS missiles as they were intended - to destroy Soviet long range air defence systems in order to make the skies safer for fighter jets such as F-16s.
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Importance of shaping the battlefield for the arrival of F-16s and impact on Russian narrative
🎦 08:08-09:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the significance of the destruction of Russian air defence systems and the impact on the future use of F-16s, which he describes as "high value". He states that whilst it is always beneficial to take out air defences, it is even more critical when introducing a new aircraft such as the F-16. Jonathan believes that Russia will be watching closely and would seek to capitalise if any F-16s were to be shot down. Jonathan emphasises the importance of the Ukrainians making the skies as safe as possible for the F-16s. He also believes that the destruction of significant Russian military equipment will also have an impact on Russia's ability to control the narrative of the "special military operation".
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HIMARS strike destroys a Russian R-330Zh Zhitel Electronic Warfare System
🎦 09:13-09:27⏩
Footage has emerged that shows a Russian R-330Zh Zhitel Electronic Warfare system being destroyed by a HIMARS strike. These are high value targets, worth in the region of $200 million. A military camp in Donetsk was also struck. Jonathan ponders whether these strikes are intended to shape the battlefield or "par for the course"?
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Ukrainian Shark drone involved in HIMARS strike on Russian Electronic Warfare unit in Donetsk
🎦 09:27-10:30⏩
A Ukrainian Shark reconnaissance drone was used to identify a Russian Electronic Warfare unit for a HIMARS strike. Jonathan isn't sure if this is the same R-330Zh Zhitel system that was destroyed but concludes it is still a significant loss as it forms a key part of their intelligence gathering.
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Heavy Russian equipment losses near Bilohorivka
🎦 10:30-12:43⏩
Footage has emerged showing multiple Russian equipment losses since Ukrainian forces recaptured Bilohorivka in September 2022. Jonathan refers to analysis by @GirkinGirkin who believes that Russian forces have suffered heavy losses for very little gain and describes it as "utter madness". Jonathan is frustrated that Andrew Perpetua has stopped producing his equipment losses spreadsheet as he believes that at least 20 pieces of equipment could have been added today.
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Swedish Archer self-propelled guns prove effective in counter battery role in Bakhmut
🎦 12:43-14:09⏩
Jonathan reports that OSINTtechnical have been impressed by the Swedish Archer self-propelled guns that have been supplied to Ukraine. They have proven to be incredibly effective in a counter battery role, taking out Russian artillery positions around Bakhmut. Jonathan goes on to compare the Archer with the French Caesar, speculating that the Ukrainians might find the Caesar slightly more preferable as it may be easier to maintain and that spare parts are easier to source.
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Scripps News documentary "Darwin's War" - Insights into Ukrainian Drone Warfare
🎦 14:09-17:19⏩
Jonathan recommends a recent documentary by Scripps News (in association with Bellingcat) called "Darwin's War". The documentary follows a young Ukrainian drone operator (call-sign Darwin) and shows how the Ukrainians are adapting to drone warfare. Key take aways from the documentary include:
- Drone operators can use up to 40 drones to take out a single target and may not always be successful. Jonathan believes that only the successful strikes are publicised, giving the impression of 100% success rate. In reality, many drones will fail as a result of being shot down, electronic warfare, running out of battery power or failing to detonate.
- Ukrainian drone operators adapt their drones to overcome the challenges they face. For example, instead of using a single RPG, they will tape three together!
Colombian fighters in Ukraine
🎦 17:19-21:08⏩
Jonathan is surprised by the number of Colombians who are fighting in Ukraine, having noticed that they are in the top 5 nationalities of those killed. He refers to an article in the Associated Press (February 2024) which explains that Colombia has the second biggest army in South America and that around 10,000 soldiers retire each year. With limited job opportunities and the experience of fighting FARC rebels, many are attracted to fight in Ukraine as they can earn 4 x their usual salaries.
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Russian Partisans target railway lines in Saratov
🎦 21:09-22:07⏩
Jonathan reports that a group calling themselves the Revolutionary Movement "Might is Right", who claim to be an underground movement in Russia, have posted a video on Telegram claiming to be behind significant railway attacks in Saratov. The video warns that their next attacks will target the homes and offices of Russia's military officers. Jonathan is impressed with their ingenuity.
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Partisan group "SROK" claim responsibility for attack in Kardashynka, Kherson
🎦 22:07-22:52⏩
Partisan group "SROK" (Death to Russia's Occupiers and Collaborators) have claimed responsibility for an attack in the Russian occupied village of Kardashynka in Kherson. They claim to have given details of Russian equipment and personnel in the village to the Ukrainian General Staff. The video shows an explosion in the background.
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Russian missile strike on Kharkiv (23/05/2024)
🎦 22:52-26:03⏩
Jonathan condemns the Russian missile strike on Kharkiv on 23rd of May 2024 in which 15 missiles were fired. He describes the attacks, which hit residential and commercial properties as "terrorist activity". Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, has called for additional Patriot systems in the wake of the attack. The strikes resulted in 7 deaths and many injured. A printing press was also destroyed in the attack resulting in the loss of 50,000 books. Jonathan talks about a tragic story relating to the attack:
- A Ukrainian writer was killed by Russians in a mass killing.
- His diary was found in a mass grave by Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina.
- Victoria Amelina was then subsequently killed in the Russian missile attack on the Pizzeria in Kramatorsk in 2023.
- The printing factory that printed the book was then destroyed by Russian bombing.
Ukrainian Missile strike on Crimea (23/05/2024)
🎦 26:03-32:03⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been significant Ukrainian strikes on Crimea on the evening of 23rd of May 2024. Explosions were reported in several areas across the peninsular, including:
- Gvardeyskoye
- Semedvore
- Alushta
At least 6 x ATACMS missiles struck a radar and anti-aircraft communications hub. Jonathan believes that this is further evidence that the Americans have given Ukraine access to a large stockpile of the missiles. Tim White (@TWMCLtd on Twitter) has reported that ambulances were seen going towards a radar establishment near Alushta and that health workers received urgent messages to go to Alushta. Atesh, a partisan group have also claimed that a Russian military communications hub was hit and that equipment was significantly damaged and many soldiers killed. Atesh also report that Russian forces are now evacuating military personnel from Jankoy and are actively restoring airfields deeper into the peninsula, out of range of the 300km ATACMS missiles. Kirillovskoie in the Feodosia region and Bagarovo in the Kerch region are specifically mentioned.
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Ukrainian drone attack on military facility in Globoky, Krasnodar
🎦 32:03-33:36⏩
On the 23rd of May 2024, Ukrainian drones attacked the 818th Separate Radio Engineering centre in Globoky, Krasnodar. It is believed that this was a long range Ukrainian SBU drone, possibly based on a modified A-22 Foxbat aircraft.
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Russian air defences shoot down Ukrainian drone over Tatarstan
🎦 33:36-34:26⏩
Russian Air defences have shot down a Ukrainian drone over Tatarstan. Jonathan suspects there may have been other Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil on the 23rd of May that we don't yet know about.
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Rosneft asks for financial support from the Kremlin to protect its oil refineries from Ukrainian drone attacks
🎦 34:26-35:16⏩
Russian oil giant Rosneft has written to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin asking for tax breaks to help them cover the costs of protecting their oil refineries from Ukrainian drone attacks. Jonathan finds this ironic, given that Gazprom has recently been told that it will be paying more taxes.
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Putin's use of body doubles
🎦 35:16-36:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the theory that Putin uses body doubles. He refers to a recent trip by "Putin" to Buryatia during which he was seen close to crowds of people, in contrast to his usual germaphobic behaviour. Andriy Yusov from the GUR has suggested that this was a body double.
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Speculation about the imminent removal of Valery Gerasimov
🎦 36:33-38:15⏩
Jonathan speculates that the time of Valery Gerasimov as commander in chief is limited and that he will be removed in the same way as Shoigu - by opening criminal cases against his close allies before an "honourable" retirement. Jonathan predicts that both will likely end up in the Security Council.
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Russian Military purges continue
🎦 38:15-39:56⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been several arrests of high profile figures in the Russian military, including:
- Major General Ivan Popov (Defence Ministry)
- Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov (Defence Ministry)
- Timur Ivanov (Deputy Defence Minister)
- Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin (Defence Ministry)
All have been charged with corruption and bribery. Jonathan believes these arrests are politically motivated, highlighting that most Russian generals are corrupt - it's a question of waiting until they are no longer useful. Lieutenant General Sukhrab Akhmedov, commander of the 20th Combined Arms Army, has also been dismissed following heavy Russian losses in Vuhledar in early 2023.
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Russian state TV claims America is weak and that Russia could easily invade a NATO country
🎦 39:56-40:21⏩
Jonathan highlights the absurdity of claims made on Russian state TV that America is weak and unwilling to support its allies and that Russia could easily invade a NATO country. The Russian propagandists appear to have forgotten how badly the invasion of Ukraine has gone and believe they could take on the whole of NATO.
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Belarus replaces its Chief of General Staff
🎦 40:21-40:41⏩
Jonathan reports that Alexander Lukashenko has appointed Major General Pavel Muraveiko as his new Chief of General Staff as part of a reshuffle of the Belarusian military.
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Student expelled and conscripted into the Russian army for disagreeing with Professor's claims that Stalin was not repressive
🎦 40:41-41:19⏩
In a shocking example of the lack of freedom of speech in Russia, a student at the Russian State Social University in Moscow has been expelled and conscripted into the Russian army for disagreeing with his Professor, who claimed that Stalin was not repressive.
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Corrector of a Russian missile attack on a training ground in Yavoriv sentenced to 15 years
🎦 41:19-42:11⏩
Jonathan reports that a 73 year old man from Lviv has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for providing the Russians with the location of a Ukrainian training ground, thought to be the Yavoriv training ground. More than 60 people were killed and 160 injured in the attack.
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Power restored to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
🎦 42:11-42:33⏩
Jonathan reports that Energoatom, Ukraine's nuclear energy agency have successfully restored power to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant, following a period of disconnection.
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Round up of news from the frontline
🎦 42:33-43:32⏩
Jonathan rounds up the latest news from the frontline:
- Russian forces remain bogged down in street battles in Vovchansk.
- The SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) have claimed responsibility for the drone attack in Tatarstan.
Ukrainian farmer mistaken for a Russian tank
🎦 43:32-44:09⏩
Jonathan lightens the mood with a story about Ukrainian soldiers in Trypillya, Kharkiv who woke up to what they thought was the sound of a Russian tank. It turned out to be a brave (or foolish!) Ukrainian farmer, spraying his crops.
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Young Ukrainian girl dies from injuries sustained in a Russian missile attack
🎦 44:09-44:29⏩
In a sad end to the video, Jonathan reports that a young Ukrainian girl has died after succumbing to injuries she sustained during a Russian missile attack, a timely reminder of the tragic human cost of the war.
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Wrap up
🎦 44:29-44:32⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching.
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