Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia are just not the good guys in this. And that's why I get super frustrated when one of the most powerful people in the world potentially is advocating for like a peace that's going to suit Russia."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:43⏩
Jonathan wishes his viewers a good morning and thanks them for their birthday wishes. Today is his birthday.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses for 25/09/2024
🎦 00:43-03:28⏩
The Ukrainian general staff figures for 25/09/2024 show very high Russian losses. The key figures are:
- 1400 personnel.
- 10 tanks.
- 44 armoured fighting vehicles.
- 71 artillery systems.
- 7 air defence systems.
- 105 vehicles and fuel tanks.
- 22 pieces of special equipment.
Jonathan notes that the drone figures will include a variety of drones including reconnaissance drones as well as Lancet loitering munitions. Jonathan observes that the Russians are taking substantial losses but are making small but important gains in certain areas.
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Dell's data analysis of Russian losses
🎦 03:28-06:25⏩
Jonathan refers to data analysis by "Dell" who curates data on Russian losses in an excel spreadsheet (available in the video description) and highlights the following points:
- There is a new 7 day rolling average for artillery losses of 63.29 exceeding the previous high of 59.57 set on 06/07/2024.
- The 7 day rolling average for drone losses is now at 75.57.
- 22 pieces of special equipment lost is a new daily high matching the previous high of 22 set on 20/08/2024.
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses for 25/09/2024
🎦 07:01-09:24⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses from Andrew Perpetua's list for 25/09/2024 noting:
- There were no surprises with the Russian artillery losses with a good spread of equipment.
- Visually confirmed losses are lower than claimed losses in the general staff figures.
- For Ukraine, losses included a Kozak 7 and Maxpro MRAP.
- The Russians lost a TOR M2 air defence system (likely to an FPV drone), a good range of artillery pieces, a few tanks and armoured vehicles.
- Jonathan highlights the loss of a Russian M46 130mm towed field gun dating back to World War II.
Donald Trump's comments about Ukrainian losses
🎦 09:24-13:22⏩
Jonathan is deeply concerned about Donald Trump's recent comments regarding the war in Ukraine. This is unusual for him as he tries to avoid political content in his videos, but feels compelled to address Trump's comments as they relate to his channel. Jonathan takes particular issue with the following statements which he considers dangerous, irresponsible, reprehensible, egregious and unconscionable:
- "Ukraine is gone. It's not Ukraine anymore. It's almost all destroyed. Quote, millions and millions of people died" - There is no evidence to support this. While the exact number is unknown, Ukrainian troop losses are estimated at around 80,000 (although Ukraine disputes this figure) and civilian deaths significantly lower than "millions".
- "Ukraine is running out of soldiers, so they are using small children and old people" - Jonathan agrees that Ukraine is running out of soldiers but this is because a large proportion of the population has fled the country, not because "millions" have been killed. There is no evidence to support the claim that Ukraine is using child soldiers - Jonathan considers this a lie.
Russian Mill Bloggers highlight poor Russian military tactics
🎦 13:22-18:14⏩
Jonathan cites examples of Russian mill bloggers criticising their own military. Jonathan notes that such criticisms should be taken seriously as these are coming from Russians who support the war but are critical of its execution. One such example is of Russian military commanders claiming to their superiors that they have captured settlements/targets when in reality, they have not. When this is subsequently discovered, commanders then take unnecessary risks with the lives of their troops in reckless attempts to capture these settlements to cover up their lies. This is backed up by Russian mill blogger Vladislav Shurigan who reported that "hundreds of Russian men were driven towards their slaughter so that the boss who reports a capture, who has already drilled a hole for the medallion on his uniform can cover his ass". Another Russian mill blogger, Danil Zentchukov, who is embedded with troops in Ukraine, provides another similar account of poor military decision-making costing the lives of Russian soldiers.
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Ukrainian HIMARS strike on Russian Convoy in Donetsk
🎦 18:20-19:51⏩
A Russian convoy of around six vehicles was hit by Ukrainian HIMARS M30/M31 GMLRS rockets around 30km behind the front lines in Donetsk. The strike was filmed by a Ukrainian drone.
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"Shoot and scoot" artillery tactics no longer effective?
🎦 19:51-22:39⏩
Jonathan discusses whether "shoot and scoot" artillery tactics are still effective in this war. Jonathan highlights a comment from "CJ" (believed to be a serving Ukrainian artilleryman) who said "shoot and scoot equals death by drone". Jonathan explains the thinking behind this - traditionally, self-propelled artillery would fire from a position and move to avoid counter-battery fire. However, the widespread use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting means that artillery pieces on the move are much more vulnerable to being spotted and destroyed, usually by FPV drones. It is safer for artillery to remain stationary in well-camouflaged positions, especially given the lack of counter-battery radar available to the Russians.
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Russian drone and missile attacks overnight 25-26/09/2024
🎦 22:59-26:22⏩
Jonathan provides more detail about the Russian attacks on the night of 25/09/2024:
- 78 Shahed drones were launched. Ukraine claims to have shot down 66, 8 were disabled by electronic warfare and 1 returned to Russia. A further drone was still in the air when this information was released.
- All 4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles launched at Odessa were shot down.
- 2 unknown missiles were also shot down.
Russian Kinzhal Hypersonic missile attacks
🎦 23:38-25:53⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine is being attacked with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles (launched from MiG-31K aircraft) although it is unclear exactly how many or how effective they have been. One of the locations attacked was Starokonstiantyniv air base in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. This is a significant location as it is believed to be the base for Ukrainian aircraft modified to launch Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. There has been speculation that this might also be a base for F-16s but Jonathan speculates that F-16s may be operating from roads in Ukraine. This would be a clever tactic as there are only a limited number of airbases in Ukraine that meet the requirements for F-16s which would make them vulnerable to Russian attack.
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Russian drone and missile attacks on Kyiv
🎦 26:22-27:11⏩
Kyiv was targeted by Russian drones and missiles this morning. Explosions have been heard in the city for the last five hours. Ukrainian air defences were active throughout the night.
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Russian drone flies near Rivne Nuclear Power Plant
🎦 27:12-28:05⏩
A Russian drone flew at critically low altitude near Rivne Nuclear Power Plant on the night of 25/09/2024 raising further concerns that Russia may be considering attacking Ukraine's nuclear energy sector.
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Russian drones operating in Belarusian airspace
🎦 28:06-29:00⏩
Belarussian sources reported that at least four Shahed drones entered Belarusian airspace last night. One of the drones crossed the border from Russia, entered Belarus at around 12:13 near Lubeck before returning to Ukraine 30 minutes later. Two Russian fighter jets were also observed over south eastern Belarus. Jonathan speculates that Russia may be intentionally using Belarusian airspace to disguise the drone's origin and trajectory.
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Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia
🎦 29:00-29:28⏩
Russian missiles struck Zaporizhzhia city for the third night in a row. This attack injured seven civilians and hit an apartment building and businesses. Jonathan notes that Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Mahnets Nikopol are routinely targeted in what appears to be a deliberate targeting of civilians. This angers him as it provides further evidence that Russia are the aggressors in this war yet there are calls from some in the international community to appease Putin and for Ukraine to make concessions in peace negotiations.
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Unexploded Russian FAB-500 bomb in Sumy Oblast
🎦 29:55-30:07⏩
Footage has emerged of an unexploded Russian FAB-500 in Sumy Oblast. The bomb landed near a bridge.
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Update on fighting in Prokrosk
🎦 30:07-31:26⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Prokrosk where Russian forces are destroying bridges to prevent civilians and military personnel from escaping the town.
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Ukrainian Territorial gains and losses
🎦 30:25-30:35⏩
Jonathan provides an update on Ukrainian territorial gains and losses:
- Ukrainian forces have made advances in Kursk Oblast towards the town of Lugov.
- Russian forces are pushing hard in the east.
Russians attack Vovchansk aggregates plant
🎦 30:35-31:19⏩
After being pushed back from Vovchansk by Ukrainian forces, Russian forces have been attacking the town's aggregates plant with large guided bombs, seemingly adopting a scorched earth policy.
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Update on fighting in the Donbas
🎦 31:19-31:51⏩
Jonathan uses a map to show the current front lines around Prokrosk and Myrna Dolyna. Russian forces are very close to the main Ukrainian defensive line. If the Russians are able to break through these defences, there is not much between them and the towns of Prokrosk and Myrna Dolyna.
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Prokrosk vital for Ukrainian Steel Production
🎦 31:51-32:20⏩
Prokrosk is strategically vital for Ukraine. Should Russia capture the town, Ukrainian steel production would reduce by 50% due to the loss of the coking coal mine located in the town.
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Ukrainian soldier discovers evidence of Russian war crimes
🎦 32:20-32:51⏩
A Ukrainian soldier has discovered a camera stolen by Russian soldiers that contains evidence of Russian war crimes. Images on the camera include one showing a line of Ukrainian civilians including children being led away with their hands tied behind their backs and blindfolded.
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Further evidence of river pollution by Russian forces
🎦 33:00-34:15⏩
Jonathan reports further ecological damage caused by the war. Almost 30 tonnes of dead fish have been collected from rivers in Chernihiv Oblast after a plant in Kursk, Russia discharged sugar molasses into the river system. The cost of the clean up operation has been estimated at $8 million.
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Wrap up
🎦 34:15-35:34⏩
Jonathan thanks the following Patrons for their support:
- Mark Biskew.
- Andrzej Urdwicz
- Mark Beaumont.
- Alex Grammersdorf.
- Anthony Janowski.
- Andre Katusa.
- Stephen Churchill.
- V.I/L Pomeroy.
