Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"So this could well have been and probably was a mistake by the Russians but they were trying to make it come down of its own accord by covering it with petrol."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual caveats about the accuracy of Ukraine's reported Russian losses, but notes the high personnel losses (980) likely due to activity around Bakhmut. Other key losses include:
- 8 tanks
- 10 APCs
- 9 artillery systems
- 7 MLRS (highest number seen)
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 12 drones
- 10 fuel tanks
- 1 piece of special equipment
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Vuklidar Losses
A captured Russian document from Vuklidar reveals heavy losses of personnel sent on assaults:
- March 1st: 100 sent, 16 returned
- March 5th: 115 sent, 3 returned
This equates to 80%+ losses. Of 434 total troops sent in 4 waves, only 57 (13.13%) returned, with 86.86% lost (dead, wounded, missing, deserted or captured). The capturing officer had a 100% casualty rate after 5 waves. Jonathan cautions against extrapolating this to Bakhmut given the different situations.
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Other News
- A Russian Su-25 fighter plane was reported shot down by Ukraine near Bakhmut. The Russians are searching for the missing pilot.
- A drone took out a Russian excavator, highlighting their importance for trench digging.
- A car bomb in Melitopol targeted a Russian-installed head of transportation.
- Russia is experiencing shell hunger, but one source suggests Ukraine's shell hunger is worse. Officer Lychowka from Ukraine's 93rd Brigade warns of a "catastrophic" shell shortage in Bakhmut.
- Kostiantynivka near Bakhmut was heavily shelled, likely by Russian MLRS.
- Belgorod in Russia had a noisy night, with videos showing a missile strike. The mayor claims 3 missiles were shot down. Unclear if it was a Russian air defence malfunction or Ukrainian attack.
Military Aid
Developments in military aid to Ukraine:
- A new Ramstein format defence meeting is being held, where a "naval coalition" of UK, Netherlands and Ukraine was announced. The Netherlands will provide 2 minesweepers.
- Defence Minister Reznikov hinted at developments with submarines in a cryptic tweet.
- Iceland's PM visited Kyiv and met with Zelensky, reaffirming their support.
- Poland may send MiG-29s to Ukraine in the coming weeks, which would cross a threshold on air power that the US and Germany have so far ruled out.
- US Senators are putting pressure on the Pentagon to assess the possibility of sending F-16s to Ukraine.
- Israel discussed providing military aid to Ukraine for the first time, though no decisions have been made.
- Poland supplied medical aid to Ukraine's newly formed offensive brigades.
- Ukrainian troops are training on M2 Bradleys, M113 APCs, Humvees, M1 Abrams tanks and French AMX-10RC wheeled tank destroyers in Germany and elsewhere. France may supply 30-40 AMX-10RCs initially.
Geopolitics
- According to Bloomberg, Russia accumulated a record $227 billion in foreign assets in 2022 due to high commodity exports before sanctions hit. However, it's unclear how much of this is frozen or accessible.
- A leaked Russian strategy document for Moldova, similar to one previously reported for Belarus, reveals Russia's plans to control Moldova through information warfare, NGOs, and fomenting protests. This appears to align with recent events, including warnings from the US and protests in Moldova.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, requests they like, subscribe and share the video, and mentions he will be working on a frontline update next.
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