Debunking a "Ukrainian Chemical Weapons Video"
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"If you are this guy and you actually think that this represents Ukrainian chemical weapons being made, then I'm sorry, you are the most gullible human being I know."
Hello Team!
Jonathan analyzes a video sent to him by a pro-Russian claiming it shows Ukrainians preparing chemical weapons. He aims to debunk it as disinformation in a "fake video 101".
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Why the video is unconvincing
Jonathan argues no one would openly implicate themselves in using chemical weapons, which are illegal under the Geneva Convention. Key issues:
- The person's voice can be recognized
- A Ukrainian flag is displayed, as if proud of making illegal weapons
- Openly filming it makes no sense as it would need to be highly secretive
- The video itself proves nothing about the contents being chemical weapons
Probability analysis of competing hypotheses
Jonathan outlines how to rationally assess the likelihood of the competing hypotheses that this is either: a) Russian disinformation, or b) Ukrainians actually creating chemical weapons Using Bayesian probability analysis, he argues:
- The prior probability (before seeing evidence) that it is Russian disinformation is high
- To overcome this, you need very strong evidence for the alternative hypothesis
- But the video is very low quality evidence that these are real Ukrainian chemical weapons
- So the posterior probability (after seeing evidence) also supports the disinformation hypothesis
Therefore the rational conclusion is this video is Russian disinformation, not evidence of a Ukrainian war crime.
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Wrap up
Jonathan reiterates that based on the low prior probability this is genuine, and the weak evidence presented, he dismisses the video as Russian disinformation almost out of hand after viewing it. He rejects it as any proof Ukrainians are creating chemical weapons.
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