Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Storm shadows, I'd argue, are looking close to being something of a game changer at the moment."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, mentioning the change to dark mode based on viewer feedback. He notes it may take some getting used to. As ever, all the usual caveats apply to the information presented.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 470 liquidated Russian personnel, a slight uptick from previous days
- No tanks lost, only 3 APCs which is very low
- 15 artillery systems lost, a significant number but lower than the catastrophic losses seen in the last 2-3 weeks
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system lost, likely an S-400 component which is a high value asset
- 32 drones and 11 vehicles/fuel tanks lost
- No special equipment lost
Jonathan shares an Excel spreadsheet from viewer Dale showing a detailed breakdown and visualisations of Russian losses over time. The artillery losses graph shows a consistently high number of losses throughout May.
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S-400 Air Defence System
A Russian S-400 air defence system command post was destroyed by Ukrainian forces in Kherson oblast using GMLRS. This is the first recorded loss of this particular component, with a launcher being destroyed previously in January. Destroying a single component like a launcher or command post does not render the entire S-400 battery inoperable. To achieve that, the command truck specifically needs to be hit which appears to be what occurred here. The exact location of the strike is debated, with some claiming it was in Henichesk, 120km from the front lines.
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Strikes on Russia and Occupied Territories
Over the last few days, Ukraine has been successfully targeting key locations in Russian-occupied territories and even Russia itself using Storm Shadow missiles and drones:
- Militopol, Berdyansk, Tokmak, Oleshky, Skadovsk, Verkhnotoretske and Volnovakha hit
- Explosions reported in Tokmak and Melitopol, visuals pending
- Oil refinery in Krasnodar, Russia hit by likely drones, 350km from front lines
- Significant damage to buildings at Urzuf airbase by at least 2 Storm Shadow missiles. Claims of 100 Russian dead and 400 wounded.
- Separate strike killed ~20 Russian officers
Jonathan believes the Storm Shadow is proving to be a potential game changer, trapping Russian forces within its striking range along the coast. The psychological impact on Russians in occupied territories is also substantial.
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Drone Strikes on Moscow
Ukraine hit Moscow with 30+ drones, contradicting Russian claims of only 8 drones, 3 shot down and 5 jammed. Seems a military base in an elite Moscow neighbourhood was the target but jamming caused drones to hit random residential areas. Strikes occurred over a 5 hour period starting 4am. Police response was delayed and residents told not to share information. Russian media coverage was comprehensive at first but then suppressed by the Kremlin. The attack challenges recent Russian bravado about air defences and likely aims to stir elite discontent. Ukraine did not intend to hit civilian targets. Drones reaching Moscow from Ukraine is a significant achievement.
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Frontline Update
- Less Russian artillery activity than previous days
- 69 strikes on 17 settlements, focused on Zaporizhzhia region
- Huliaipole, Malynivka, Chervone and Zaliznychne suffered airstrikes
- 63 total artillery attacks, all in Zaporizhzhia
- Likely Russian retaliation for increased Ukrainian activity ahead of anticipated counteroffensive
Attacks on Ukrainian Healthcare
Analysis shows Russia has intentionally struck Ukrainian medical facilities over 1000 times since the invasion began, killing at least 101. This is a deliberate and morally abhorrent Russian tactic seen before in Syria and Chechnya. Nepro provides a detailed breakdown of the scale of attacks.
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Odds & Ends
- Ukrainian weightlifting champion refused to shake hands with Iranian bronze medalist in protest of Iran supplying Russia with drones
- OSCE report confirms large-scale deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. Russia creating obstacles for their return.
- Russian authorities detained a Ukrainian woman helping return children from occupied territories. She had documents proving connection to the children she was trying to bring home.
- Significant flooding in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk due to heavy rains, complicating any immediate counteroffensive plans
Military Aid
- US to provide Ukraine $300 million package including ammo, Zuni rockets, Stinger MANPADS, Avenger air defence systems
- Italy preparing another unspecified aid package, likely air defence systems. 7th Italian package, details classified.
- Iceland sending 10 fuel trucks to support Ukrainian counteroffensive logistics
- IMF agrees $900 million loan to Ukraine with conditions
- BAE Systems following Rheinmetall in establishing repair/manufacturing facilities in Ukraine to support war effort
Geopolitics
- FM Kuleba continuing Africa tour to secure support for UN resolutions and counter Russian influence
- US imposing new sanctions on Russia related to Iranian drones and to protect human rights advocates
- US leveraging F-16 sale to Turkey to drop opposition to Sweden NATO bid
- France & UK propose NATO develop new long-range strike capabilities to complement air defences
- Georgian PM blames Ukraine war partly on its NATO aspirations in concerning pro-Russian statement
- Pro-Russia/Serbia rallies in Belgrade damaging Serbia's EU candidacy prospects
- Tara Reade who accused Biden of sexual assault in 2020 announces she's defecting to Russia, raising questions about allegation origins
Wrap up
Jonathan notes it was a longer update than usual due to the amount of news. He appreciates viewers taking the time to watch and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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