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Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News

News🔷Hits and Losses🔷Geopolitics🔷Military Aid Friday, 3rd February 2023, 10:01
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"If you've got him [Putin] so wrong then I don't think I need to take your analysis seriously."

Hello Team!

Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian figures for Russian losses, which include:

  • 840 liquidated personnel, indicating tough battles likely in Vuhledar and Bakhmut
  • Relatively low equipment losses, but still contributing to the overall attrition
  • Russia has lost over 9,000 pieces of heavy equipment visually confirmed by Oryx, which is a conservative estimate


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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA

  1. These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
  2. These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
  3. All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
  4. Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
  5. Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
  6. Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
  7. Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
  8. All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
  9. Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.

Military Aid and Training

  • Ukrainian troops are starting training on Leopard 2 tanks next week in a 6-week program
  • The Ukrainian military is ahead of schedule on Patriot system training in the US and will complete it in a few weeks
  • Israel's PM Netanyahu ordered a reconsideration of military aid policy for Ukraine; while no significant change is expected, Israel could provide defensive weapon systems
  • The EU is committing to train up to 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers, giving them an advantage over poorly trained Russian troops


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Political Developments

  • Sergei Furgal, who defeated Putin's candidate for governor of Khabarovsk in 2018, was found guilty of murder in a likely politically motivated trial
  • Jonathan criticizes pro-Russian analyst Scott Ritter's claim that Putin has "not a corrupt bone in his body," citing Putin's record of killing and imprisoning critics
  • Mainstream Swiss politicians are calling for Switzerland's Leopard 2 tanks to be sold to Poland, Slovakia and Czechia for a symbolic price to replace tanks they send to Ukraine, circumventing Swiss neutrality rules
  • Norway may use part of its increased oil revenues for military assistance to Ukraine


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Economic Commentary

Jonathan contrasts Norway's strategic handling of its oil wealth, investing in a sovereign wealth fund to support its welfare state, with the UK's hands-off, free market approach. He criticizes the UK allowing energy companies to make record profits while citizens struggled to pay bills, and argues for a more balanced approach between free markets and strategic planning.

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Other News

  • Partisans blew up a car belonging to a collaborator and police officer in Enerhodar
  • British intelligence reports the Wagner Group's convict recruitment has significantly reduced, with a decrease of 6,000 inmates over the past 2 months compared to 23,000 in the previous 2 months
  • Tensions between Wagner and the Russian Defense Ministry may be partially responsible for the reduced supply of convicts


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Wrap up

Jonathan concludes by directing viewers to a series he wrote on free market economics, history, morality and background for those interested in further reading on the topic. He emphasizes he is pro-capitalism but believes in avoiding extremes and that some strategic planning and regulation is necessary.

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

The transcript was clear and I did not have any issues understanding the content. Let me know if you would like me to clarify or expand on any part of the summary.

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