Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Loss Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"The Russians just have phenomenal amounts of towed artillery and self-propelled guns sitting in huge storage units all around Russia. I mean these are just thousands upon thousands of bits of kit from all around Russia"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update on the Ukraine War, this being the first part of the 7th March 2024 news. He notes this video will be shorter than the previous one which had technical difficulties.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - General Staff data and Analysis
🎦 00:23-02:16⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, highlighting record highs for 7-day rolling averages:
- 41 artillery systems lost per day
- 51 vehicles and fuel tanks lost per day.
He points out the significance of the increasing trend in these figures.
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Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua's Visually Confirmed Data
🎦 02:16-03:08⏩
Jonathan examines Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss statistics, noting 8 additional destroyed Russian vehicles yet to be publicly disclosed. He emphasizes the importance of the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses, aiming for 3:1 for Ukrainian success, and points out a favourable 6:1 ratio on this day.
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Significant Ukrainian Losses - Radar Systems
🎦 03:08-03:25⏩
Despite the positive trend in Russian losses, Jonathan acknowledges the significant Ukrainian loss of an ANTPQ-36 radar and a P-18 radar system. He emphasizes the impact of these losses on Ukrainian capabilities.
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Analysis of Russian Equipment Losses and Refurbishment Cycles
🎦 03:25-06:22⏩
Jonathan delves into the types of Russian equipment losses, focusing on the cyclical pattern observed in BMP-1 losses and the potential implications for Russian refurbishment capabilities. He references the analysis of Richard Vareka from Warspotting, suggesting Russia might be cycling through refurbished equipment and now deploying newer models like BTR-82As due to exhaustion of readily available older vehicles.
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Addressing Viewer Challenges and Lithuanian Intelligence Report
🎦 06:22-07:47⏩
Jonathan addresses a viewer's skepticism about the high numbers of reported Russian losses, particularly artillery. He counters by citing his own efforts to corroborate the figures with visually confirmed data. He also brings in a recent Lithuanian intelligence report stating Russia's capacity to sustain the war at current intensity for at least two more years, highlighting their access to resources and support from allies like North Korea, Iran and China.
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Analysis of Russian Artillery Stockpiles and Sustainability
🎦 07:47-11:27⏩
Jonathan examines evidence of dwindling Russian artillery stockpiles using satellite imagery, referencing data from Covert Cabal's YouTube channel. He presents their findings, indicating a significant depletion of towed artillery in Russian storage facilities. Despite this, he acknowledges Russia's vast initial stockpiles and their ongoing efforts to repair and refurbish equipment, supporting the Lithuanian intelligence assessment of sustained war capabilities. He questions the tipping point where these stockpiles will become critically low, impacting Russia's ability to replace losses effectively.
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The Importance of Ukrainian General Staff Data and Russian Disinformation
🎦 11:27-12:32⏩
Jonathan reiterates his belief in the Ukrainian General Staff's reported figures, arguing that while there might be minor inaccuracies, it's not in Ukraine's interest to blatantly falsify data. He contrasts this with Russia's history of disinformation and inflated claims, highlighting the strategic importance of maintaining credibility with international allies providing support.
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The Sinking of the Sergei Kotov and Its Implications
🎦 12:32-17:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent sinking of the Russian ship Sergei Kotov by Ukrainian Magura V5 drones. He highlights the significance of this event, as the Sergei Kotov was a new ship designed to counter maritime drones. This success, he argues, demonstrates the evolving effectiveness of Ukrainian naval tactics. He cites Reporting From Ukraine's analysis suggesting this was not a random attack but a well-coordinated operation involving diversionary strikes to draw out and overwhelm Russian air defenses before deploying the naval drones. He notes the Ukrainians are carrying out a form of attrition warfare - degrading the Black Sea fleet a little at a time. Jonathan observes that the Russian Black Sea fleet hasn't entered the Black Sea for three consecutive days following this incident, indicating a change in their behaviour due to the perceived threat.
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The Debate Over Ukrainian Claims of Downed Russian Jets
🎦 17:18-18:45⏩
Jonathan addresses skepticism surrounding Ukrainian claims of downing numerous Russian fighter jets. While acknowledging the lack of visual confirmation for every incident, he argues that such evidence is difficult to obtain due to restrictions on filming in combat zones. He also emphasizes the delayed emergence of visual evidence in past incidents, suggesting some claims might be verified later.
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Circumstantial Evidence Supporting Ukrainian Claims of Downed Jets
🎦 18:45-22:12⏩
Jonathan presents circumstantial evidence supporting Ukrainian claims, including reports of reduced Russian air activity and analysis of satellite imagery by PS with Zero One suggesting the disappearance of Su-34 fighter bombers from various airbases. He highlights reduced bombing activity, particularly around Avdiivka, as further indication of degraded Russian air capabilities. Although acknowledging the need for cautious interpretation of this data, he finds the evidence leans towards supporting Ukrainian claims.
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Repelled Russian Assault on Robotyne and Implications for Russian Morale
🎦 22:12-23:25⏩
Jonathan reports on a repelled Russian assault on Robotyne, citing Ukrainian sources claiming the destruction of 10 enemy vehicles. He notes the continued Russian efforts to capture Robotyne, linking it to upcoming elections and the need for battlefield successes. He suggests these repeated, costly attacks on the same target are taking a toll on Russian morale and operational effectiveness.
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The Human Cost of War
🎦 23:25-25:30⏩
Jonathan takes a moment to reflect on the human cost of the war, reminding viewers that behind every piece of destroyed equipment are individuals who have lost their lives. He expresses his hope that the equipment provided to Ukrainian forces will help increase their survivability.
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Ukrainian Forces Target Russian APC with Dummies
🎦 25:30-26:32⏩
Jonathan shares an anecdote of Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian APC (armoured personnel carrier) that was carrying dummies dressed as soldiers. He speculates this incident could reflect poorly on Russian morale, suggesting the possibility that soldiers are reluctant to be deployed in dangerous areas.
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Partisan Activity and Sabotage in Russian-Controlled Territories
🎦 26:32-28:05⏩
Jonathan reports on incidents of partisan activity and sabotage in Russian-controlled territories, including:
- The assassination of a pro-Putin official in Berdyansk.
- An explosion at the Tuva thermal power plant.
- Sabotage of a railway relay cabinet in the Moscow region by the partisan group Atesh.
- A fire at a military school in Kazan, Russia.
Missile Strike in Odessa Narrowly Misses Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister
🎦 28:05-29:16⏩
Jonathan reports on a significant event: a missile strike in Odessa that killed five people and landed close to Ukrainian President Zelensky and visiting Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis. While Ukrainian officials claim it wasn't a targeted attack, the incident drew strong condemnation from international leaders.
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Attacks and Incidents in Nikopol, Krasnoyarsk, and Along the Northern Border
🎦 29:16-32:24⏩
Jonathan covers various attacks and incidents:
- A fire at a supermarket in Nikopol, potentially caused by shelling or missile strikes.
- A guided bomb attack in Krasnoyarsk, highlighting Russia's increasing use of these munitions.
- Increased Russian use of glide bombs along the northern border, impacting Ukrainian defensive positions.
Ukrainian Fortification Efforts and Conflicting Reports
🎦 32:24-37:15⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian efforts to build fortifications along the northern border, citing both Russian sources claiming rapid progress and a Wall Street Journal report suggesting slow progress. He analyzes the strategic importance of these fortifications as a deterrent and a means to free up troops for frontline deployment. He speculates that strikes observed in Kharkiv could be targeting these construction efforts.
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Anecdote of Expired Hand Sanitizer as "Humanitarian Aid"
🎦 37:15-38:11⏩
Jonathan shares an anecdote of a soldier receiving a shipment of expired hand sanitizer labeled as "humanitarian aid" from Moscow. He contrasts this with a more practical shipment of food and supplies from Saratov, highlighting the absurdity of the situation.
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Zelensky's Message to Those Tired of the War
🎦 38:11-39:02⏩
Jonathan highlights Zelensky's poignant message to those who are tired of the war, urging them to visit the destroyed Transfiguration Cathedral in Odessa and pray for peace in their own countries, emphasizing the importance of supporting Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression.
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The Impact of Delays in Western Aid and Ukrainian Counteroffensive Preparations
🎦 39:02-39:34⏩
Jonathan discusses the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) assessment that delays in Western aid are hindering Ukrainian efforts to regain the initiative. He connects this to reports of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive, underscoring the importance of timely military support. He cites accounts from Ukrainian soldiers, like "Shaman," blaming ammunition shortages for their struggles in places like Avdiivka.
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Anecdote Highlighting Systemic Problems in the Russian Military
🎦 39:34-42:11⏩
Jonathan relays an anecdote from a Russian Telegram channel admin exposing systemic issues within the Russian military. The anecdote details instances of:
- False reporting of captured positions, leading to unnecessary casualties.
- Lack of artillery support and combined arms tactics, putting soldiers at risk.
- A disconnect between battlefield realities and reports reaching higher command.
He concludes that these are not isolated incidents but rather indicative of deeper, persistent flaws within the Russian military structure.
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Wrap up
🎦 42:11-42:28⏩
Jonathan wraps up by expressing his uncertainty about the Lithuanian intelligence's two-year assessment, considering the complexities and challenges faced by both sides. He ends the video with his signature sign-off, thanking viewers and reminding them to like, subscribe, and share. He mentions his need for a cup of tea after recording the lengthy update.
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