Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The Avdiivka direction has somewhat stabilised. And ammunition indeed has arrived."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:49⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video, reminding them about the new merch available through the Redbubble link in the description. He gives a shout-out to Chris Jones for the designs.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Front Update
🎦 00:49-01:57⏩
Jonathan reviews the frontline map, noting Russian gains according to Suriat Maps. He points out:
- No movement reported in the areas of Kupiansk, Svatove, Kreminna, or along the Luhansk-Kharkiv border.
- Small Russian gains near Terny and Torska, with some discrepancies between different map sources.
- No changes around Bakhmut for the past two to three days, suggesting a potential slowdown in Russian advances, which Jonathan considers significant given the intensity of fighting there.
Bakhmut Front: Ivanovske and Klishchivka
🎦 01:57-02:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation in and around Bakhmut, highlighting:
- Geolocated footage confirming Russian advances inside Ivanovske, aligning with most map sources, particularly Suriat Maps.
- Russians gaining control over the area north of the T0504 road leading into Bakhmut. Heavy fighting continues in this region.
- Despite the activity, there have been no reported changes in Klishchivka.
- A decrease in overall activity near Klishchivka is observed.
Donetsk Front: Avdiivka and Pervomaiskyi
🎦 02:54-04:46⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Donetsk front, outlining:
- Minor Russian gains around Avdiivka, specifically in the Tonenke area. (Jonathan thanks JR for the mapping update.)
- Confirmation from a 59th Brigade officer that the situation in Avdiivka has stabilized.
- Increased Ukrainian artillery ammunition usage in recent days.
- Renewed Russian advances in Pervomaiskyi, with Russian forces entering the locality from the north, mirroring a strategy used several weeks ago.
- Jonathan speculates that the Russian goal is to secure control over the remaining contested land in Pervomaiskyi.
Krasnohorivka: Conflicting Reports and Cluster Munitions
🎦 04:46-06:52⏩
Jonathan delves into the situation around Krasnohorivka, emphasizing:
- Conflicting reports between Andrew Perpetua's and Suriat Maps' assessments of the area, with Perpetua indicating potential Ukrainian gains.
- Perpetua's map not showing Russians inside the first streets of Krasnohorivka, or suggesting it's a highly contested grey zone if they are present.
- The mine area south of Krasnohorivka (which changed hands multiple times) saw early use of Ukrainian cluster munitions.
- This area was also where a Russian drone unit commander, whose death was reported by a Telegram channel, was allegedly killed. Jonathan recalls the commander being targeted while walking along a tree line.
Donetsk Front: Novomykolaivka, Pobieda, and Heiivka
🎦 06:52-10:46⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation southwest of Donetsk, particularly around Novomykolaivka, noting:
- Suriat Maps reporting Russian control over the northeastern plantations of Novomykolaivka, with clashes occurring in the northern warehouses.
- A recent update from Suriat Maps indicating Russian control of an area north of Pobieda, contradicting JR's earlier map.
- Russian claims of increasing the buffer zone around Pobieda and taking control of plantations on high ground overlooking Heiivka.
- Jonathan highlighting the tactical significance of this high ground (143-147 meters) for the Russians, as it gives them an advantageous position over the lower-lying Heiivka (120 meters).
- A significant difference between Andrew Perpetua's and Suriat Maps' assessments of the situation in Novomykolaivka, making it difficult to ascertain the actual situation.
- The strategic importance of the area north of Novomykolaivka, with its well-fortified Ukrainian positions and the potential for Russian advancement towards the town if they capture it.
Vuhledar Front: Shevchenko and Strategic Importance
🎦 10:46-12:39⏩
Jonathan examines the frontline near Vuhledar, stating:
- Heavy Russian equipment losses around Vuhledar, potentially linked to attempts to capture Shevchenko.
- Suriat Maps reporting new Russian advances northwest of Shevchenko and an increase in the buffer zone surrounding the village.
- The importance of monitoring this front as Russian efforts to encircle Vuhledar intensify, with the outcome of the battle for Novomykolaivka potentially playing a decisive role.
- The Russian strategic objective to control the entire area east of the road running from Kostyantynivka to Vuhledar.
- Jonathan's belief that this area holds greater strategic significance for both sides than Avdiivka, with the Ukrainians likely to prioritize its defense and the Russians focusing their offensive efforts here.
- The challenging but achievable goal for the Russians to connect their gains in this area and the need for Ukrainian vigilance in the face of these advances.
Southern Front: Huliaipole, Robotyne, and Diversionary Tactics
🎦 12:39-15:45⏩
Jonathan analyzes the situation on the southern front, specifically near Huliaipole and Robotyne, highlighting:
- Continued Russian advances on the Huliaipole front, taking control of plantations southeast of Chervone.
- This front, reactivated in late February, is believed to be a diversionary tactic aimed at drawing Ukrainian troops away from other areas.
- Heavy artillery activity reported around Huliaipole.
- Small Russian gains around Robotyne, contradicting Jonathan's previous assessment of successful Ukrainian defense in the area.
- Suriat Maps indicating a Russian foothold re-established inside Robotyne after a Ukrainian withdrawal.
- The significant size of the area around Robotyne now potentially under Russian control, including a substantial trench network previously held by the Ukrainians.
- Uncertainty over whether the Russians fully control this area or if the Ukrainians have strategically withdrawn.
- No Report's earlier assessment that the central area of Robotyne was contested and had been the target of multiple Russian assaults from the west.
- Suriat Maps' more recent claim of Russian control in the area, contrasting with No Report's earlier update.
- Jonathan's expectation of increased Russian pressure in this area and acknowledgement of Ukraine's tenacious defense thus far.
Breaking News: Destroyed Russian Command Ship and Military Blogger Deaths
🎦 15:45-16:51⏩
Jonathan discusses a breaking news update about a Ukrainian strike on a Russian command ship in the Dnieper River estuary:
- The ship, lodged in the sand, may have ended up in its position as a result of the Nova Kakhovka dam destruction in June 2023.
- Speculation that the Russians were using the large cargo ship for command and control purposes, potentially equipped with radar and electronic warfare systems.
- Confirmation of the ship being hit and likely destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
- Rumors, yet to be substantiated, about the death of General Tupilinsky in the strike.
- Confirmation of the death of a prominent, ultranationalist Russian military blogger known as "the 13th," though it's unclear if he was killed in the ship incident.
Wrap up
🎦 16:51-17:09⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video, and expresses gratitude for the support from his members. He ends with his signature sign-off, "Slava Ukradi!"
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