Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231024a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"Gerasimov and the Russian command are likely to continue to burn resources until he is stopped, also by someone internally."
Hello Team!
Jonathan explains his schedule is affected by a concert and games night. He hasn't curated as much content as usual but will proceed with the update.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses on 23/10/23: 810 personnel, 12 tanks, 16 APVs, 24 artillery systems, 3 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, 18 drones, 1 cruise missile, 28 vehicles/fuel tanks, 8 special equipment
- Rob Lee suggests Ukraine is committing more forces than understood and Russia has more reserves to draw from
- Andrew Perpetua's analysis shows 4-5:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses based on social media footage
Strikes and Explosions
- Ukrainian forces thwarted a Russian air assault, destroying 6 Shahed drones overnight
- Shelling reported in Kharkiv Oblast, Marhanets and Nikopol
- Explosions reported in Rostov, Makiivka and Donetsk
- Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian fleet in Sevastopol; results unknown
Crimean Bridge
Ukrainian Naval Forces spokesman suggests they will strike the Crimean bridge at the "appropriate moment" to make Crimea an island, but now is not the right time.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Assassinations in Russia
- Washington Post reports Ukraine's SBU was behind dozens of assassinations of Russian targets, including:
- Russian Navy officer Stanislav Rzhitsky in Krasnodar
- Military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky in St Petersburg cafe bombing
- Assassination of Alexander Dugin was attempted but killed his daughter
- US has voiced objections but not withdrawn support
Avdiivka Offensive
- Dara Massicot, defense expert, suggests Russia is losing multiple brigade elements in assault on Avdiivka
- Over 100 Russian vehicles lost in 2 weeks
- Gerasimov prefers offensive approach; no one left to push back on his "bad ideas"
- Russians throwing resources at Avdiivka at great cost; concerning for Ukraine who face large volumes of fire and assault
- Spreadsheets suggest Russia will have artillery advantages in coming months
Wrap up
Jonathan expresses concern Russia is stockpiling long-range missiles for future winter attacks. He urges vigilance for signs of Russian personnel and vehicle build up. The Russian command is incompetent but dangerous.
Return to top⤴️
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No parts of the transcript were unclear to me.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Watch the video and read through the transcript
Identify the main topics covered in the video
Summarise each topic, providing enough context and detail
Bold key facts, figures, names, places for emphasis
Use bullet points to structure the summary where appropriate
Ensure the introduction and wrap up are included
Select a key quote from Jonathan that captures the essence of the video
Structure the summary using the provided XML tags
Review the summary to check all key points are covered and it reads well
