Ukraine War Update NEWS/EXTRA: Harris, Sunak, Vuhledar, Missiles, & Mines
Table of Contents 📖
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"If there is a moment in this conflict we can make a difference, why not seize it? What are we waiting for?"
Hello Team!
Jonathan recorded this video on Saturday evening as he will be taking his boys to sporting events on Sunday morning. The video covers some important news from Saturday afternoon.
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Munich Security Conference - Kamala Harris
At the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President Kamala Harris made an explicit statement that the US has formally determined Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Harris said, "in the case of Russia's actions in Ukraine, we have examined the evidence. We know the legal standards and there is no doubt these are crimes against humanity." She added a message to the perpetrators and their superiors who are complicit in these crimes - "you will be held to account."
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Munich Security Conference - Rishi Sunak
- UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gave a strong speech at the Munich Security Conference, saying now is the moment to double down on military support to Ukraine. He said Putin gambled that Western resolve would falter but "we proved him wrong then and we will prove him wrong now."
- Sunak announced the UK will be the first country to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons and is working with allies to give Ukraine the most advanced air defence systems. The UK stands ready to help any country provide fighter jets to Ukraine now.
- Sunak urged allies to "help Ukraine to shield its cities from Russian bombs and Iranian drones" and said "together we are delivering as much equipment in the next few months as in the whole of 2022."
- Jonathan applauds Sunak for his clear and honest position. He believes it is well played politically and the right thing to say morally. Clarity is important and Sunak's speech shows the UK is in it for the long haul.
European Commission - Ursula von der Leyen
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU must urgently introduce joint purchasing of weapons to persuade arms companies to standardize production. Jonathan believes this strategic planning to influence the free market is important and the EU's purchasing power can be leveraged to get the best deals and prices for weapons procurement, which will benefit both the EU and Ukraine.
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UK Support for Fighter Jets
While the UK has refused to commit to providing RAF planes to Ukraine immediately, PM Sunak said he would back allies who are in a position to supply warplanes now. UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace ruled out a rapid British delivery of modern fighter jets, citing lengthy pilot training times. Sunak's main pitch to European partners was to provide weapons to Ukraine so it is not left on the defensive.
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Vuhledar
- Vuhledar, a town in Donetsk Oblast, has been the site of horrendous Russian attacks as they attempt to advance from the lower ground of Pavlivka and Mykilske.
- The town is heavily fortified by Ukrainian forces and minefields. The Russians have suffered heavy losses, with the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades being decimated according to Colonel Dmytro Shkivsky.
- The New York Times reports that in one week alone, Russia lost at least 130 armoured vehicles, including 36 tanks, in Vuhledar. Drone footage and accounts from Russian military bloggers support these figures.
- A Russian marine from the 155th Brigade told Russian media outlet 7x7 that only 8 soldiers from his company survived and those who did were considered deserters.
- The large-scale assaults have subsided but the Russians are still probing Ukrainian defences in small groups of 10-15 soldiers. If this continues, they will be outnumbered and are "going to their death."
Mines in Vuhledar
Mines have been one of the main sources of Russian armour destruction in Vuhledar. Ukraine is using a combination of traditional TM-62 mines laid by hand or with mine-laying vehicles, and scattered RAAM (Remote Anti-Armor Mine) systems delivered by 155mm artillery shells donated by the US. While mine plows on tanks can clear paths, it is a delicate operation and easy for trailing vehicles to stray into uncleared areas. Other anti-tank mines like the PARM-1 and PARM-2 are set up on tripods to fire projectiles at the sides of passing vehicles. Jonathan believes the extensive mining will make any future advances by either side very slow and costly, and will pose a huge challenge for Ukraine in the post-war period.
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Preferred Countries to Move To
An infographic shows where people in various European countries would prefer to move to if they had to leave their own country. Interesting findings include:
- Germany is the top choice for Russia and most of Eastern Europe
- The UK prefers Australia, Ireland prefers the US
- Most of Western Europe picks Switzerland
- Nordics choose other Nordic countries
- Belgium prefers the Netherlands, Netherlands prefers Canada
The enduring connections between Germany and the former Soviet bloc may partly explain Germany's initial reluctance to strongly support Ukraine, but Scholz seems to be changing course after seeing the clear leadership of other European leaders.
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Russian Missile Stocks and Usage
Analysis by John Ridge suggests Russia is running low on high-precision cruise missiles:
- As of January 3rd, Russia had 59 Kalibr SLCMs, 118 Kh-101/555 ALCMs, and 52 Kh-22/32 ASMs remaining
- Since then, 163 Kalibrs/Kh-101/555s and 17 Kh-22/32s have been fired in 4 mass strikes
- Domestic production is estimated at 50 Kalibrs/Kh-101/555s per month
- At this rate, stocks will be around 90 Kalibrs/Kh-101/555s, 145 Kh-22/32s and 50 9M728/729 GLCMs
- The use of more Kh-22/32 ASMs and S-300/S-400 SAMs in ground attack mode recently, and smaller numbers of missiles per strike, suggest dwindling Kalibr/Kh-101/555 inventories
- This should reduce damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian suffering
Sniper Rifles
Jonathan questions why Ukraine doesn't have hundreds of snipers with the best training and equipment (e.g. rifles with 6km range) deployed in key locations like Bakhmut to make any Russian movement very costly. He believes this could be a very effective tactic even if it is not how snipers are traditionally used.
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Dutch YPR-765 APCs
The Dutch-donated YPR-765 armoured personnel carriers, while old, are providing useful service in Ukraine for transporting troops relatively safely. Although not suitable for frontline attacks, they offer good protection and some offensive capability. It's good to see them being put to use.
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Russian Book Burning
Russia is burning millions of books in Ukraine because they teach a different worldview. Jonathan compares this to Nazi book burnings and says it is turning back the clock to an era condemned by history. He cannot understand how anyone can support this, saying you must either be completely blinded by anti-Western sentiment or paid by Russia. Destroying Ukrainian culture and identity cannot be called "liberation." Speaking a language is different from burning books. Jonathan challenges pro-Russian commenters to justify this.
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Elon Musk and Twitter
In a side note, Jonathan criticises Elon Musk for allegedly getting Twitter to boost his own tweets over President Biden's, despite claiming to be a "free speech absolutist." He accuses Musk of skewing the platform to promote his own views above others.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan wraps up this news and analysis update. He will try to do a map update later. He thanks viewers for their support.
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