Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Wherever Russia is, there is life. There is love, care and respect. Wherever satanic Ukraine is, there is death."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Update video for 20/12/2023 - Part 1. He notes that he is being targeted by Russian trolls, possibly because of the difficult situation around Bakhmut and Novo-Mykhailivka (where Ukraine are losing ground) and the halt in US Congress for military aid is making things challenging.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:08-02:21⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for 19/12/2023, reminding viewers that the caveats for this data can be found in the video description.
- Personnel: 890 (high)
- Tanks: 16 (a real issue for Russia - likely offensive posture)
- APVs: 23 (significant loss)
- Artillery systems: 16 (not the highest but still an issue)
- MLRS: 2
- Drones: Unknown number
- Cruise Missiles: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 29 (logistics still being hit)
- Special equipment: 3
Jonathan notes that no figures have been released yet by Andrew Perpetua. He found Andrew's live stream last night tough watching.
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Krimki and Novo-Mykhailivka
🎦 02:21-04:44⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation in Krynky, making reference to the New York Times article which suggested that Ukrainian attacks in this area have been suicidal. He notes that Ukrainian drone commander, Robert Magyar, has issued a riposte in response to this. Jonathan acknowledges that Ukraine is suffering huge casualties here but argues that the NYT article doesn't paint the full picture, failing to mention how successful Ukraine has been in inflicting losses on Russia in the region. He shares a post by BS1 which claims that the NYT continues to write BS about Ukraine. He shares another video showing a group of Russian soldiers refusing to obey their commander who wants to send them on a suicide mission in the Krynky area. The soldiers report that three companies have been completely wiped out with only 50 men remaining.
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North Korea Ammunition
🎦 04:44-06:42⏩
Jonathan discusses the low quality ammunition that North Korea is supplying to Russia. He states that Ukraine's General Staff have gathered evidence that the artillery shells are often defective, sometimes damaging the barrels of cannons and mortars and even injuring soldiers. He notes that the poor quality is evident when looking inside the shells where the explosives are not arrayed consistently. He acknowledges that some Ukrainian shells are also of poor quality.
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Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 06:42-06:46⏩
Jonathan shares two videos of Russian T-72B3M tanks that have been destroyed in the Krynky area.
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Bakhmut
🎦 06:46-07:07⏩
Jonathan states that he thinks Ukrainian personnel losses around Bakhmut are likely to be high at the moment. He refers to President Zelenskyy's press conference yesterday and states that he will talk about this in more detail in Part 2.
Drone and Missile Attacks - 19/12/2023
🎦 07:07-08:00⏩
- Russia: Launched 19 Shahed drones - 18 of these were shot down (good interception rate).
- Russia: Launched 2 S300 missiles but they caused no damage.
- Russia: Hit transport depots and civilian facilities. Jonathan expresses his disgust at Russia repeatedly attacking civilian infrastructure and calls them "war criminals".
- Russia: Attacked Kherson, setting fire to another branch of the post office. No casualties reported.
Kinzhal Hypersonic Missiles
🎦 08:00-09:31⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles at a Ukrainian airfield at Starokostyantyniv last week - the first time since August.
- UK Intelligence (who refer to the missiles as "Killjoy" - the NATO reporting name) report that the missiles missed their target.
- Ukraine claims to have intercepted some of the missiles.
- Jonathan notes that Ukraine was successful in intercepting Kinzhal missiles in Kyiv earlier this year.
- He states that it's likely that some of the launches missed their targets, while Ukraine has also had some success in intercepting them.
Explosions in Russia
🎦 09:31-10:27⏩
- Krasnodar, Russia: Explosions heard (close to the border with Ukraine). Photos suggest that Russian air defence may be working, although residents report hearing multiple blasts.
- Kropvenitsky: Explosion heard but no air raid warning was issued. It transpired that this was a grenade. Jonathan remarks that it can be difficult to interpret the cause of explosions/gunfire which could be training or the result of mine destruction.
Igor Salikov
🎦 10:27-11:48⏩
Jonathan discusses the news that Igor Salikov is the first high ranking Russian Officer to agree to testify in The Hague about Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
- Salikov is a former colonel of the Russian Defence Ministry Military Intelligence Service (GRU)
- He was a senior instructor with the Wagner Group
- He was a commander with the Redut PMC (reportedly run by Shoigu)
- He claims to have witnessed Russian war crimes, including false flag operations in Donbas, atrocities against civilians, torture and execution of prisoners of war and the kidnapping of children.
- Salikov left Russia with his family in June 2022. He recently flew to the Netherlands from Cape Town, South Africa to seek political asylum.
Jonathan believes Salikov could be a high value whistleblower and hopes his testimony will shut down some of the pro-Kremlin voices.
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Alexei Goranov
🎦 11:48-12:26⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the disappearance of Alexei Goranov, a former Moscow municipal deputy who was sentenced to seven years in prison for speaking out against the war in Ukraine. His health has been deteriorating in prison and there are fears for his wellbeing. Jonathan highlights the lack of freedom in Russia and reiterates his belief that it is a "travesty of democratic ideals" that Navalny and others have gone missing in the penal system.
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Alexei Navalny
🎦 12:26-12:52⏩
Jonathan expresses his disgust at how Alexei Navalny has been treated by Russian authorities:
- Poisoned
- Imprisoned
- Sentence extended multiple times (now 30 years)
- Has now disappeared (along with other prisoners)
Boryspil Airport
🎦 12:52-13:46⏩
Jonathan shares positive news that a Boeing 777-300 departed from Boryspil Airport at the request of Skyline Express.
- This was a technical flight with no passengers or cargo.
- It's the fourth successful transfer of aircraft from Boryspil Airport since the war began.
- Zelenskyy has said that the opening of the airport would be a big victory for Ukraine.
- It's hoped that heightened air defences around Kyiv could allow the airport to reopen, providing an economic boost to Ukraine as well as a sense of normality.
Vladimir Solovyov
🎦 13:46-14:51⏩
Jonathan shares a quote by Russian propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, in which he claims that "wherever Russia is, there is life. There is love, care and respect. Wherever satanic Ukraine is, there is death." Jonathan brands this as "unadulterated bollocks", highlighting that the opposite is true and that Russia brings death, war crimes, torture and horror. He cites the example of Mariupol, reminding viewers that the evidence of Russian atrocities is there for all to see on Google Earth.
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Zelenskyy's Press Conference - Key Points
🎦 14:51-15:17⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelenskyy's end of year press conference, summarising the key points (as outlined by Max 23):
- The EU and USA will not betray Ukraine. Money and support is coming, it's just a matter of time.
- The war in the Middle East has affected (but not stopped) aid to Ukraine, although this is now abating.
Impact of the Israel-Hamas War
🎦 15:17-17:15⏩
Jonathan gives his analysis on how international focus on the Israel-Hamas war has impacted the situation in Ukraine:
- He notes that there is less happening in that theatre now. While acknowledging the horrors taking place in Gaza, he states that the level of coverage/concern shown by international diplomats and politicians is diminishing, with the focus returning to Ukraine.
- He highlights the differences between the two conflicts, stating that Israel doesn't rely on assistance from the US in the same way that Ukraine does. From a Palestinian perspective, however, there is a great need for a ceasefire and the international community is beginning to recognise that Israel has "gone too far".
- He suggests that the need for a ceasefire in Gaza and international condemnation of Israel's actions is positive as it paves the way for Ukraine to move back up the agenda.
US Military Aid
🎦 17:15-19:51⏩
Jonathan argues that the delay in US military aid is costing Ukrainian lives and territory. He is angry about the situation, stating that:
- Delays in US and EU (Viktor Orban) aid are costing lives and territory.
- Ukraine is losing strategically important defensive positions to the west of Bakhmut and around Novo-Mykhailivka because they don't have enough ammunition.
- Retaking this land will be costly, both in terms of money, ammunition and lives.
- By not providing Ukraine with the support it needs now, the US and its allies will end up paying a higher price in the long run.
NATO Membership
🎦 19:51-20:07⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine has not been invited to join NATO, stating that partial proposals, whereby only part of Ukraine would be granted membership, have been dismissed out of hand.
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Ukrainian Mobilisation
🎦 20:07-22:15⏩
Jonathan reports that:
- Zelenskyy has stated that he will not sign a bill to mobilise women.
- He is considering lowering the mobilisation age to 25.
- Ukraine's military wants to mobilise a further 500,000 troops.
- Zelenskyy is aware of the economic impact of such a move (taking 500,000 men out of the workforce will cost an estimated 500 billion hryvnias) and wants the top brass to spell out the details.
- The Ministry of Defence estimates that 800,000 Ukrainians were serving in the military as of October, with a total of 1 million in uniform (including the National Guard and other units).
- Russia recently increased its troop numbers by 170,000 to a total of 1.32 million.
Zelenskyy-Zaluzhnyi
🎦 22:15-22:35⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelenskyy refused to comment on the supposed conflict between himself and Valeriy Zaluzhny (Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zelenskyy stated that their relationship is "cordial" but implied that it is strained, stating that he doesn't want to "develop the topic" that there's a conflict between them.
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Poland, Trump and the 2024 US Election
🎦 22:35-23:07⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelenskyy's comments on the situation in Poland and the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election:
- Zelenskyy stated that he believes the new Polish government will unblock the borders.
- He believes that Donald Trump will have a different policy on Ukraine if he wins but that this may not necessarily result in major changes. He acknowledged that Trump could weaken US aid to Ukraine, which would have a "very big impact" on the course of the war.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive
🎦 23:07-23:28⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelenskyy has blamed the lack of success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on a lack of air support.
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Zelenskyy's Priorities
🎦 23:28-23:41⏩
Jonathan lists Zelenskyy's priorities, as stated at his end of year press conference:
- Working with Zaluzhnyi
- Awaiting a decision on mobilisation
- Awaiting battlefield results
- Awaiting a decision on providing further assistance to fighters on the front line
Wrap Up
🎦 23:41-25:20⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and for their ongoing support, acknowledging that his viewing figures have dropped by half since the war began. He signs off by urging people to "keep shouting about Ukraine" in order to maintain awareness and bolster international support.
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