Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia's liberation essentially looks like rubbleizing any settlement they come across"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another Ukraine War Update NEWS video
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report - Russian Losses 03 April 2024
🎦 00:10-00:50⏩
Jonathan provides the figures from the Ukrainian General Staff report for Russian losses for the previous day (03 April 2024). He notes that the numbers are lower than in previous days, suggesting a possible cooling down of the conflict:
- 670 personnel
- 9 tanks
- 18 armoured personnel vehicles
- 29 artillery systems
- 1 multiple launch rocket system
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 48 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 7 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan's Analysis of Recent Fighting
🎦 00:50-01:24⏩
Jonathan offers his analysis of the recent fighting, noting that the Russians have suffered significant equipment losses in their renewed attacks and that the Ukrainians have defended well - he highlights that the Russians will be feeling the cost of every square metre they gain.
Return to top⤴️
Oryx Loss Report Analysis 01 April - 03 April 2024
🎦 01:24-06:10⏩
Jonathan analyses the visually confirmed losses reported by Oryx (Andrew Perpetua) for 01 and 02 April, noting that the loss ratio is about 3:1 in Ukraine's favour. Jonathan highlights losses on both sides, commenting on their significance including:
- Ukraine: M1 Abrams, M109 and M777 howitzers, surveillance and counter-battery radar
- Russia: Buk-M1 or M2, TOS-1A thermobaric launcher, T-90 tank
He notes that whilst Russia has suffered higher overall losses, the loss of the Abrams tank would be significant for Ukraine if it cannot be recovered. He adds that the large number of vehicles lost by Russia over recent days and weeks, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and trucks, are unsustainable.
Return to top⤴️
March 2024 - A Costly Month for Russia
🎦 06:10-09:11⏩
Jonathan refers back to a graph (shown in his previous video) from Oryx which he describes as "fascinating" showing visually confirmed Russian equipment losses (tanks, APCs, infantry fighting vehicles) spiking dramatically in October 2023 (at the start of the Avdiivka offensive) before falling back again in November. Jonathan explains that although the losses reduced from November onwards, they began to increase again with losses in February and March 2024 being "absolutely phenomenal". Jonathan highlights that these losses are confirmed with visual evidence: >"every single one of the data points on here every single tank lost that feeds into this data every single IFV lost that feeds into this data has a URL next to it of the visual confirmation of that loss, that damage, that abandonment or the capture, right? And so this is not propaganda". He encourages anyone disputing the figures to "go and get that data yourself and go and supply all the evidence for that and then come back with a narrative that's different to this" adding "when you have justification of these claims with every single data point being being um confirmed visually and then having a url and a website, giving you the confirmation of that loss, then your claims of Ukrainian propaganda just fritter away." Jonathan reiterates that despite some small territorial gains, March 2024 was an exceptionally difficult month for Russia in terms of visually confirmed equipment losses.
Return to top⤴️
Possible Russian Plane Down Over Donetsk
🎦 09:11-10:19⏩
Jonathan shares footage shared by Telegram channel PS01 appearing to show a parachute coming down in the Donetsk region. It is unclear from the footage what has happened but it suggests a possible plane down - Jonathan says he will provide further updates when they become available.
Return to top⤴️
Heavy Russian Losses Near Kreminna
🎦 10:19-11:06⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have suffered further heavy losses in the Kreminna area, particularly around Terny, with Ukrainian forces targeting them with artillery, FPV drones and anti-tank guided missiles, including Javelins. Jonathan notes that Russian forces were seen to be funneled down a single road, making them easy targets.
Return to top⤴️
Small Ukrainian Drone Destroys Building in "Incredible" Footage
🎦 11:06-12:19⏩
Jonathan describes footage of a small Ukrainian FPV drone destroying an entire building being used by Russian forces, commenting that this is indicative of a trend of increasingly potent improvised explosive devices being used by Ukrainian drone operators. The footage is described as "incredible" to watch.
Return to top⤴️
Explosion at Substation in Podolsk, Moscow
🎦 12:19-12:59⏩
Jonathan reports on an explosion at a substation in Podolsk (Moscow) yesterday which resulted in power outages in several areas. It is unclear what caused the blast but it may have been an accident, a long-range drone strike or the result of partisan activity.
Return to top⤴️
Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks - 03/04 April 2024
🎦 12:59-21:05⏩
Jonathan reports on the overnight Russian drone and missile attacks which took place on 03/04 April 2024, noting that the situation in Kharkiv is "heartbreaking" after 20 Shahed-136 drones were launched into Ukraine - 11 were shot down which is not considered a good interception rate. Jonathan believes that the high number of drones that are getting through is because Kharkiv's close proximity to the Russian border leaves it particularly vulnerable as there is less time to shoot them down. He shares the following from the Kyiv Independent which illustrates the damage being inflicted on Kharkiv: >"an estimated 10 billion dollars is needed to rebuild everything damaged or destroyed just from the recent weeks right so not just over the course of the war 10 billion dollars worth of damage has been done in just a couple of weeks" In Kharkiv, 3 emergency rescue workers (later revised to 4) were killed in a "double-tap" strike whilst responding to an earlier attack. Jonathan describes footage showing a fire engine being taken out, describing it as "a travesty" and questioning why the Russians would attack rescue workers, describing it as "despicable". Jonathan condemns the attacks on Kharkiv as "overt terrorism", noting that it is similar to what has been seen in Kherson, with attacks on civilian infrastructure appearing to be the main objective. Jonathan mentions other overnight attacks, reporting that:
- Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was on the verge of another blackout even before the latest attack. Shelling has cut a power line leaving only one line connected.
- Russians shelled Seladovye with five S-300 surface-to-air missiles, damaging 7 administrative buildings, 12 multi-story buildings and eight private residential buildings. He adds that this is not the first time this has happened and he believes there was a Ukrainian training base in the area which was also targeted.
Jonathan also reports on what appears to be a "tit-for-tat" attack on a grain terminal in Rostov-on-Don (Russia), noting that Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian grain infrastructure in Odesa, Ismail and Reni. Jonathan explains that grain terminals are particularly susceptible to fire and explosions due to the highly flammable nature of grain dust.
Return to top⤴️
Zelensky Condemns UN for "Dubious" Response to Attacks on Russia
🎦 21:05-23:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the UN's response to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, noting Zelensky's comments that "Russia understands nothing but force". Jonathan is critical of the UN response, observing that they have condemned Ukraine for attacking Russian oil refineries, but have not commented on the attacks on Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia. He describes the UN's approach as "dubious" and "very dubious politics".
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Needs More Patriot Missile Systems
🎦 23:17-25:07⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has expressed concern over the lack of air defence support from Ukraine's allies, claiming that despite there being over 100 Patriot Missile systems in existence, very few have been sent to Ukraine. Kuleba has appealed for NATO allies to supply at least 5-7 systems as a matter of urgency. Jonathan notes that Ukraine has purchased a further 5 systems directly from Raytheon (RTX), but it is unclear when these will arrive. He believes that Zelensky's recent comment that Ukraine has received "two new air defense systems" that can shoot down "anything" suggests that more Patriot systems may have arrived already. Jonathan believes that Ukraine's allies should be doing more to support them and suggests a solution: >"it would be better for that country to give some Patriots to Ukraine and then themselves put on an order for replacement systems that would be as far as i can i'm concerned a solution"
Return to top⤴️
Satellite Imagery: Russian Black Sea Fleet Reloading Kalibr Missiles at Novorossiysk
🎦 25:07-27:57⏩
Jonathan discusses satellite imagery that suggests that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has solved its logistical issues with loading Kalibr missiles onto its ships and submarines now that it is based in Novorossiysk. One theory as to why Russia had stopped using Kalibr missiles was that the loading facilities in Sevastopol had been damaged, preventing them from being loaded onto ships. However, recent satellite imagery from 01 April 2024 (shared by Thierry) appears to show the Admiral Makarov frigate being loaded with Kalibr missiles with the aid of a floating crane. Jonathan notes that whilst Kalibr missiles are relatively easy for the Ukrainians to shoot down, Russia appears to have amassed a large stockpile of them (estimated to be as many as 285), which, if launched in significant numbers, would put a strain on Ukraine's air defences. He suggests this could be a deliberate tactic designed to tie up Ukraine's air defence systems, paving the way for attacks by other missiles such as Kinzhal and other ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Jonathan ends by wondering whether Ukraine has any plans to target Novorossiysk to try to take out the crane.
Return to top⤴️
Czech Foreign Minister Calls for Clear Strategy to End the War
🎦 27:57-29:48⏩
Jonathan reports that the Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky believes that NATO and the EU need to develop a clear strategy to end the war in Ukraine and that Ukraine must be allowed to define how the war should end: >"there is no general debate about our strategy towards Russia either in NATO or in the EU I believe this is a mistake such a discussion should also discuss how the war in Ukraine should end in such discussions" Lipavsky believes that it is wrong for the West to try to impose conditions on Kyiv and instead they should be focusing on helping Ukraine to win the war. Jonathan notes that Lipavsky is also against freezing the conflict, pointing out that in his view the conflict has been frozen since 2014 and that this would not result in a "just and lasting peace".
Return to top⤴️
Russia Increases Disinformation and Cyber Warfare Efforts
🎦 29:48-34:19⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has been increasing disinformation and cyber warfare efforts, including attempts to discredit Ukraine's top officials and the Ukrainian armed forces, citing confirmation from the Head of the Cyber Department of the SBU, Vityuk, that dozens of fake pages have been discovered and blocked which were posing as official accounts, including those of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Jonathan describes this as a serious problem for Ukraine and other nations. Jonathan highlights how effective Russia has been with its disinformation campaign, citing the example of a Shahed drone from last night's attack which had the inscription: >"For Crocus City Hall. And it's the idea that Russians are still blaming the Ukrainians for the ISIS attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue". He also discusses the dangerous rhetoric of Russian propagandists who are openly calling for genocide, citing the comments of Dmitry Goblin-Puchkov who has said that Ukrainians cannot be re-educated and should be killed on an industrial scale. Jonathan is appalled that this is happening at an official level and that people are applauding. Jonathan then shows footage from Russian state TV, highlighting how dangerous disinformation is being spread to the Russian people with commentators pushing the narrative that the US is to blame for the war in Ukraine. He comments on how one individual, Michael Bohm, tries to challenge the narrative and provide a voice of reason but is shut down and prevented from speaking. Finally, Jonathan shows footage from Russian propagandist Sladkov who can be seen in Soledar, over a year after it was supposedly "liberated". Sladkov jokes about how dangerous it is to even go outside to urinate without risking attack. Jonathan comments: >"this is what freedom looks like in Russia, of course. It looks like Soledar being liberated and it's in ruins" He adds "Russia's liberation essentially looks like rubbleizing any settlement they come across" describing it as an "absolute travesty".
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 34:19-35:09⏩
Jonathan signs off by asking viewers to like, subscribe and share the video and thanking those who support the channel including: Andreas Lurch, Richard Rock, John Panciotti and all the channel members.
Return to top⤴️
