Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, FPV Drone Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"This is what freedom looks like in Russia...purging libraries that reference history and culture and ethnicity outside of what Russia wants their people to believe...this is pure um fascistic autocracy in my book"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:39⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video, a Ukraine War news update for the 25th of April 2024. He encourages viewers to check out his live chat from the previous night with Jake Bro, describing it as a great conversation with in-depth discussion on various subjects.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian Losses
🎦 00:40-02:42⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting a significant increase in personnel losses, potentially indicating increased military activity. He highlights the rising numbers of tanks and armoured personnel vehicles (APVs) lost as suggestive of Russian attacks, particularly in areas west of Bakhmut and the Avdiivka Salient. Jonathan also observes that the Ukrainians seem to be targeting Russian artillery and anti-aircraft systems, potentially in preparation for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets.
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Andrew Perpetua's Social Media Loss Statistics
🎦 03:01-05:04⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's social media survey of equipment losses, highlighting the significant disparity between Russian and Ukrainian losses, indicating unsustainable losses for Russia. Ukrainian losses include a damaged M777, a destroyed tank, a captured M113, a destroyed Mastiff, and an abandoned Kirpi. In contrast, Russian losses comprise a Buk M3, a Buk M2 (older models taken out by HIMARS), an electronic warfare system, communication towers and equipment, artillery, tanks (T-72s and T-80s), infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, and logistical vehicles. Jonathan emphasizes that such high losses are unsustainable for Russia.
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HIMARS Strike - Russian S-400 Air Defence System
🎦 05:12-09:20⏩
Jonathan analyzes footage of a HIMARS strike on a Russian 92H2E radar, initially misidentified as a 96L6, part of an S-400 air defence system. He credits "Special person cat" as the source of the information. While the strike caused damage, it was assessed to be minor and repairable. Jonathan points out the Ukrainians' tactic of monitoring known Russian air defence positions with reconnaissance drones to exploit predictable patterns in equipment deployment. Unfortunately, the HIMARS strike was inaccurate, resulting in minor damage to the radar and the death of a Russian signalman, Senior Sergeant Andrei Nikolaevich Bushiev, from shrapnel wounds. Notably, a nearby Pantsir S-1 air defence system failed to detect the incoming HIMARS missiles. Jonathan observes the recurring theme of air defence and anti-drone systems failing to protect against the very threats they are designed to counter.
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HIMARS Destroys Russian Buk Air Defence System
🎦 09:21-10:24⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Russian Buk-M1 air defence system destroyed by a HIMARS strike, causing it to cook off. He notes that HIMARS systems are being employed more frequently, potentially due to increased supplies of missiles and the possible use of longer-range ATACMS missiles supplied by the US. Jonathan emphasizes that the focus on targeting Russian air defence systems is crucial in preparation for the deployment of F-16 fighter jets by Ukraine.
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Increased Targeting of Russian Air Defence Systems
🎦 10:24-13:23⏩
Jonathan predicts an intensified Ukrainian campaign to eliminate Russian air defence systems before the arrival of F-16 fighter jets. He shows footage of a suspected S-300 radar being destroyed, crediting the Tevaz group for the footage. He underscores the vulnerability of F-16s due to their limited landing options within Ukraine, making their bases easily targetable by Russian forces. Jonathan reiterates his suggestion that Ukraine should base its F-16s in neighbouring countries like Poland or Romania, utilizing Ukrainian airbases for refuelling and launching sorties to minimize their vulnerability to attacks while parked. He expresses frustration over the recent losses of Ukrainian MiG-29s destroyed at their airbases.
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Russians Target Ukrainian Fortifications
🎦 13:23-15:03⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian strategy of targeting Ukrainian construction equipment used to build fortifications. He references intel from Intel Skitsko, who highlighted this tactic. Jonathan criticizes the Ukrainians for not employing a similar strategy against Russian construction efforts in 2022-2023, which allowed the Russians to establish robust defensive lines. He reiterates his earlier calls for Ukraine to target Russian rail construction equipment to disrupt logistical lines, particularly the Malovodne to Berdyansk railway. He shows footage of Russian strikes on Ukrainian construction vehicles involved in building fortifications. Jonathan expresses uncertainty over the effectiveness of targeting such equipment, questioning whether it would be more strategically valuable to wait for the completion of infrastructure projects like railways and then target critical nodes like bridges, which are more challenging to repair.
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Russian Modified Tanks on the Krasnoyarsk Front
🎦 15:03-16:26⏩
Jonathan observes the increasing use of modified Russian tanks, particularly on the Krasnoyarsk front. These modifications involve heavily shielding the tank chassis, suggesting the turrets might be damaged or their full rotation is unnecessary for their current operational role. Jonathan reasons that the continued use and production of these modified tanks indicate their practical value in the conflict. He shows footage of a large modified tank in Donetsk, likely operating near Krasnohorivka, illustrating their deployment in active combat zones.
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Fires and Explosions Across Russia and Crimea
🎦 16:26-19:46⏩
Jonathan reports on a series of fires and explosions across Russia and occupied Crimea. He shows footage of a large fire in Moscow, acknowledging the lack of clarity regarding its cause. He then presents footage of petroleum tanks ablaze in Omsk, followed by footage of three fuel tank cars engulfed in flames in occupied Simferopol. While the official explanation for the Simferopol incident cites a "violation of the technological process," Jonathan suspects sabotage, potentially by the Ateş partisan group operating in Crimea. He anticipates an increase in such incidents within both occupied territories and mainland Russia, suggesting that increased military aid to Ukraine might embolden such actions. Jonathan expresses disappointment over the reported reluctance of the US, particularly Jake Sullivan, to authorize the use of 300km range ATACMS missiles for strikes inside Russia.
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Arrest of Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov
🎦 19:46-26:36⏩
Jonathan delves into the arrest of Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov on bribery charges, citing information from Twitter user Artur Rehi. This is noteworthy as Ivanov is the second high-ranking official within the Ministry of Defence to be arrested, following a pattern of internal purges. Jonathan points out that while corruption is pervasive in Russia, the timing of Ivanov's arrest, particularly without Shoigu's apparent knowledge, suggests a power struggle within Putin's inner circle. He provides context by mentioning that Shoigu had elevated Ivanov to his position and shielded him from previous allegations. The arrest is particularly significant because Ivanov's role oversaw lucrative construction projects, making his position a prime target for rivals seeking to exploit such opportunities for kickbacks. Jonathan cites Rehi's analysis, which posits that the arrest highlights the internal power dynamics within Putin's regime, where the dictator intentionally fosters rivalry to prevent any individual or faction from becoming a threat. He argues that Shoigu's perceived incompetence might actually work in his favour as it makes him a less threatening figure to Putin. Jonathan concludes that this internal struggle within the Russian leadership ultimately benefits Ukraine by weakening the Russian war effort and eroding Putin's grip on power. He questions the current state of the Russian military command structure, particularly the whereabouts and effectiveness of Chief of Staff General Gerasimov, who has been largely absent since reportedly being injured in a strike in Crimea.
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Disappearance of Ivanov's Ex-Wife
🎦 26:37-27:47⏩
Jonathan reports on the disappearance of Svetlana Zakharova, the ex-wife of arrested Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov. He notes that her disappearance follows the arrest of her former husband, and speculates that she may have been detained as well. This incident draws attention to the lavish lifestyle Ivanov and Zakharova maintained, which was previously exposed in a December 2022 investigation by Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation. The investigation revealed that the couple spent extravagantly on vacations, funded by a company contracted to rebuild Mariupol, diverting funds intended for the devastated city. Jonathan highlights that their divorce, which occurred after Ivanov was placed under sanctions, was likely a move to protect Zakharova's assets from being seized.
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Russians Purge Crimean Libraries
🎦 27:47-28:47⏩
Jonathan highlights the Russian authorities' purging of libraries in occupied Crimea, specifically removing books referencing the Holodomor and Crimean Tatar history and culture. He criticizes pro-Russian commentators who accuse Ukraine of suppressing freedom of speech, arguing that Russia's actions in Crimea demonstrate hypocrisy and expose the reality of their oppressive regime. Jonathan condemns these actions as "pure fascistic autocracy."
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Suspension of Russian Orthodox Priest
🎦 28:47-29:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the three-year suspension of Russian Orthodox priest Dmitry Safronov, who oversaw the funeral of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny. While no official reason for the suspension was given, the timing strongly suggests a connection to Navalny's funeral. Jonathan sees this as another example of the Russian government's attempts to control narratives and punish dissent, even within religious institutions.
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Wrap up
🎦 29:51-29:59⏩
Jonathan concludes by reiterating that the events in Russia and occupied Crimea, particularly the suppression of historical truths and dissenting voices, highlight the oppressive nature of Putin’s regime. He thanks viewers for watching, encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video, and signs off.
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