US Politics Weekly Election Extra: Trump-Harris Showdown - Robinson, Polls, Unions & the Law
Table of Contents 📖
"He's Ted Cruz 2.0, less nasal, more eyeliner."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:13⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another US election news update. He explains that there is a lot of content to get through so will try and race through it.
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Explaining the Electoral College
🎦 00:13-03:33⏩
Jonathan begins by explaining the Electoral College voting system in America, pointing out that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but lost the election to Donald Trump. He explains that the system favours smaller, rural states, which are generally more Republican, giving them more power in the system.
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Mark Robinson Scandal
🎦 03:33-04:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent scandal involving Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina. Robinson has been accused of making controversial statements in the past, including advocating for the death of liberals and making derogatory remarks about Martin Luther King Jr. He has also been accused of visiting pornographic video shops and making sexually explicit comments online. Robinson is refusing to withdraw from the race.
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Trump's Endorsement of Robinson
🎦 04:13-05:50⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's strong endorsement of Mark Robinson. He plays a clip of Trump waxing lyrical about Robinson, calling him "one of the hottest things in American politics". Jonathan highlights the irony of Trump's endorsement given Robinson's recent scandal and the hypocrisy involved. He states that he believes Robinson will lose the governorship, but the scandal could potentially affect the presidential race.
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Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina Polls
🎦 05:50-07:07⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss recent polls in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. He states that polls have been favouring Kamala Harris, but new polls from the New York Times-Siena have shown Trump ahead in Arizona and Georgia, and also close to being ahead in North Carolina. He notes that New York Times polls generally skew Republican, and so the poll results could be a cause for concern for Democrats. He believes that the Mark Robinson scandal may have minimal effect on the North Carolina race.
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Tim Walz's Speech
🎦 07:07-08:16⏩
Jonathan discusses a speech by Tim Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota, who has been campaigning in Pennsylvania. Jonathan highlights how Walz has used the Mark Robinson scandal to his advantage, referring to Robinson as a "Nazi" and linking it to the importance of fighting against Nazi tyranny.
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Republican Efforts to Make Voting Harder
🎦 08:16-09:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the Republican strategy of making it harder for people to vote, particularly people of colour. He highlights examples such as Texas purging voter rolls, Georgia requiring hand counting of ballots, and red states closing polling locations in black and Latino neighbourhoods.
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Georgia Hand Count
🎦 09:08-09:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent decision by Georgia's election board to require hand counting of ballots. He states that this is an extremely rare practice in the US and is almost certain to face legal challenges. He argues that the decision is likely motivated by Republican efforts to undermine the election results, as hand counting is seen as less accurate and can be used to create delays and allow for legal challenges. Jonathan quotes the opinion of Jeff Duncan, a Republican who is now endorsing Kamala Harris, that the Republican party is not interested in winning the election fairly. He argues that the Republican party is dysfunctional and only worships Donald Trump.
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Texas Voter Purge
🎦 09:54-10:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the purging of voter rolls in Texas. He explains that while purging the rolls of deceased or moved voters is a normal practice, there are concerns that the purges are being used to disenfranchise certain groups, particularly people of colour.
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Lawsuits Against Election Officials
🎦 10:17-10:55⏩
Jonathan discusses the Republican National Committee's lawsuits against state election officials in battleground states, including Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He argues that these lawsuits are largely based on the false claim that non-citizens are voting illegally, despite the fact that reports of non-citizen voting are extremely rare.
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Oklahoma Voter Purge
🎦 10:55-11:07⏩
Jonathan discusses the purging of voter rolls in Oklahoma, where there are claims that over 193,000 eligible voters have been removed from the rolls. He states that he cannot confirm the accuracy of this claim but that it highlights the Republican strategy of trying to remove voters from the rolls, regardless of whether they are eligible or not.
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Polling Place Closures
🎦 11:07-11:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the closure of polling places in black and Latino neighbourhoods, which he argues is another way in which Republicans are trying to suppress the vote.
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Nebraska's Electoral Law Change
🎦 11:22-11:57⏩
Jonathan discusses Nebraska's electoral law change, which he argues is a significant and underhand move by Republicans to gain an electoral advantage. He explains that Nebraska is one of two states where electoral college votes are not allocated on a statewide basis, but are instead allocated based on district results. Currently, Nebraska is allocated four electoral votes to Republicans and one to Democrats. The Republicans are trying to change this rule to allocate all five votes to Republicans, which would make it much harder for Democrats to win the state.
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The Teamsters Union
🎦 11:57-12:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the Teamsters Union, a powerful union that generally supports Democrats. He explains that the union had initially conducted a survey that showed their members were more likely to support Biden over Trump. However, following the Republican National Convention and Biden's withdrawal from the race, the Teamsters conducted a new poll that showed their members were now more likely to support Trump. Jonathan argues that this shift may be due to the Teamsters' members' views on immigration, as Trump's rhetoric on deporting illegal immigrants is likely to appeal to them.
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The Teamsters' Decision Not to Endorse
🎦 12:17-12:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the Teamsters' decision not to endorse either Trump or Harris. He argues that the union is facing a difficult choice, as their members are divided on who to support. He points out that while many Teamsters members may support Harris because of her union-friendly policies, they may also be personally inclined to support Trump because of his stance on immigration. This highlights the tension between the union's policy agenda and its members' personal views. Jonathan also mentions that local chapters of the Teamsters union have begun to endorse Harris independently, despite the national union's decision not to endorse.
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Special Elections and Democrat Overperformance
🎦 12:57-13:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the trend of Democrats overperforming in special elections. He argues that this data is significant, as it suggests that Democrats may be underperforming in polls and that they may be stronger than the polls suggest. He highlights the example of a special election in New Jersey where the Democratic candidate won by a larger margin than expected. He argues that this overperformance may be due to the fact that the special elections are taking place in safe districts where Republicans are not expected to overperform. He also suggests that Democrats may be doing better among college-educated white voters, which is a demographic that has traditionally supported Democrats. He notes that Trump is trying to turn out those voters, and that this could be a cause for concern for Democrats.
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J.D. Vance's Immigration Rhetoric
🎦 13:57-14:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the immigration rhetoric of J.D. Vance, the Republican candidate for Senate in Ohio. He highlights how Vance has been called out for making false claims about Haitian immigrants, including saying that they are illegal immigrants when they are actually legal immigrants. He argues that Vance is deliberately using inflammatory language to demonise a certain group of people. Jonathan plays a clip of Vance saying that he will continue to call Haitian immigrants "illegal aliens" even though they are legally in the US. He argues that Vance is trying to redefine the term "illegal alien" to fit his own narrative. Jonathan also points out that Vance's children are mixed race, which highlights the hypocrisy of his statements. He expresses his disgust at Vance's rhetoric and argues that it is offensive to the Republican electorate.
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Katty Kay's Comment on Vance's Rhetoric
🎦 14:53-15:44⏩
Jonathan quotes Katty Kay from the BBC's "Politics US" on the potential impact of Vance's rhetoric on the electorate. Kay argues that it doesn't help America or American society and doesn't help people's confidence in democracy. She also questions whether Vance's rhetoric will actually help him win over undecided voters.
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Trump's Anti-Semitic Rhetoric
🎦 15:44-16:53⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's recent anti-Semitic rhetoric. He plays a clip of Trump blaming Jewish Americans for his potential electoral loss if he does not win the election. Trump claims that Jewish Americans are "voting for the enemy" and that those who plan to vote for his opponents should have their heads examined. Jonathan expresses his disgust at Trump's rhetoric and argues that it is dangerous and shows his transactional nature. He highlights the fact that Trump has been trying to attract Jewish votes by promoting his pro-Israel policies, but that he is now attacking them for not supporting him. He argues that Trump could have a positive effect on his vote share among Jewish Americans if he played his cards correctly, but that his current rhetoric is alienating them.
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Trump and Harris's Debate
🎦 16:53-17:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the CNN invitation for a Trump-Harris debate. He states that Harris has accepted the invitation, while Trump has declined. He argues that Trump's decision to decline is likely due to the fact that he feels he did not perform well in the last debate and that he is afraid of repeating his mistakes.
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Glenn Grothman's Claim About Democrats and Immigration
🎦 17:11-17:57⏩
Jonathan plays a clip of Representative Glenn Grothman, a Republican, claiming that Democrats want to allow immigrants to vote immediately, even if they are not citizens. He argues that this is part of the "great replacement theory", which is a conspiracy theory that alleges that Democrats are trying to replace white voters with immigrant voters. Jonathan criticises Grothman's claims as being based on no evidence and as being a dangerous and divisive form of rhetoric. He also highlights the hypocrisy of Grothman's statements given that he is a Republican who supports Trump, who himself has made numerous controversial and divisive statements.
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Trump's Rally in New York
🎦 17:57-18:58⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's recent rally in New York. He highlights the difference between Trump's approach to campaigning and Harris's approach. He argues that Trump is playing to his ego by holding a rally in a state that is solidly Democratic, while Harris is choosing to campaign in more competitive states. Jonathan also plays a clip of Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican, claiming that the rally was "record-breaking" and that New York is "turning red". He argues that this is a false and misleading statement, and that Trump's rally is likely to have minimal impact on the election. He also highlights the fact that Harris is filling out stadiums at her rallies, while Trump's rallies are often not as well attended.
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Trump's Inaccurate Statement about Harris
🎦 18:58-19:14⏩
Jonathan plays a clip of Trump claiming that Harris has just been rated the most liberal senator in the US Senate, even more so than Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. He argues that this is a blatant lie, as Harris has not been a senator for four years, since she was appointed Vice President. He also criticises Trump for using derogatory nicknames for his opponents. He argues that this type of behaviour is despicable and shows that Trump is willing to lie and deceive the public.
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Trump's Rambling Speech
🎦 19:14-20:01⏩
Jonathan plays a clip of Trump speaking at a town hall event. He criticises Trump for rambling and making nonsensical statements. He argues that Trump should be carefully considering his words and how they will be received by the electorate, but that he is instead just rambling and making jokes that are inappropriate for a political rally. He also highlights the hypocrisy of Trump criticising others for rambling, when he himself is known for his rambling speeches.
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Trump's Financial Trouble
🎦 20:01-20:15⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's financial trouble. He mentions that some Republican senators are facing financial difficulties in their campaigns. He also plays a clip of Trump trying to sell Trump coins as a way to raise funds. Jonathan is unimpressed by Trump's efforts and believes that it is unlikely to make a significant difference to his campaign.
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Trump's Bitcoin Venture
🎦 20:15-20:31⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's decision to launch a Bitcoin venture while campaigning for President. He argues that this is a strange decision, as it is likely to create conflicts of interest and is likely to be viewed as a desperate attempt to raise funds. He is critical of Trump's decisions and is sceptical of the venture's chances of success.
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Trump's False Claim About Jobs
🎦 20:31-20:58⏩
Jonathan plays a clip of Trump making a false claim that 100% of jobs created in the US in the last two years have gone to illegal aliens. He argues that this is a blatant lie and that Trump is deliberately trying to stir up fear and anger among his supporters. He also highlights the fact that Trump's supporters are cheering him on and shouting "save us", which shows that Trump's rhetoric is effective in appealing to them.
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Melania Trump's Nude Modelling Photoshoot
🎦 20:58-21:52⏩
Jonathan discusses Melania Trump's decision to defend her nude modelling photoshoot in a recent statement. He argues that this is a strange decision, given that her husband is a Republican who is campaigning on a platform of family values and conservative morals. He highlights the fact that Trump has been attacking his opponents for their views on immigration and culture war issues, while his wife is defending a decision that is likely to be viewed as scandalous by many Republicans. Jonathan also highlights the hypocrisy involved, given that Trump has made numerous controversial statements about illegal immigration, while his wife was herself an illegal immigrant in the US for a period of time.
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J.D. Vance's Refusal to Fact Check Himself
🎦 21:52-22:23⏩
Jonathan plays a clip of J.D. Vance being confronted about his false claims about Haitian immigrants. He argues that Vance is refusing to take responsibility for his own words and is instead blaming the media for not fact-checking him. He argues that this is a dangerous precedent and that it is the responsibility of politicians to ensure that the information they share is accurate. He also criticises Vance for his hypocrisy, given that he is accusing the media of lying about Haitian immigrants, while he himself has been caught out making false claims about them.
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Kamala Harris's Favorability Increase
🎦 22:23-23:11⏩
Jonathan discusses Kamala Harris's recent increase in favorability ratings. He highlights the fact that she has seen the largest increase in favorability ratings for any politician since George W. Bush's popularity surge after the 9/11 attacks. He argues that this increase is likely due to the fact that Harris is becoming more well-known and that people are getting to know her better. He suggests that the more she is on television, the more popular she is likely to become.
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Trump's Popularity and Media Coverage
🎦 23:11-23:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the relationship between Trump's popularity and media coverage. He argues that Trump's popularity tends to decline when he is in the public eye and making controversial statements, but that he seems to benefit from a kind of "amnesia" when he is out of the public eye and people forget about his past actions. He suggests that this might be a reason why Trump has been declining media interviews and public appearances in recent months. He also argues that the more Harris is on television, the more popular she is likely to become, while the opposite seems to be true for Trump.
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Polls and the Electoral Map
🎦 23:50-24:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the current state of the polls and how they might affect the electoral map. He states that most polls are showing Harris ahead of Trump, but that the race is still very close to call. He highlights the fact that polls have been inaccurate in the past and that they cannot be considered a reliable predictor of the election outcome. He argues that the 2020 polls underestimated Trump, while the 2022 polls underestimated Democrats. He explains that if the polls are as inaccurate in 2024 as they were in 2020, then Trump could win the election, despite the fact that he is currently trailing in many states. However, if the polls are as inaccurate in 2024 as they were in 2022, then Harris could win the election with a larger margin than expected. He concludes that the election is too close to call and that it is important to consider the potential for polling inaccuracies.
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Endorsements and the Middle Ground
🎦 24:50-25:49⏩
Jonathan discusses the current state of endorsements in the race. He highlights the fact that a number of former Republican officials, including Ronald Reagan staffers, have come out in support of Kamala Harris. He argues that this shows that Democrats are doing a better job of attracting undecided voters and swing voters. He also mentions that Paul Ryan, the former Republican Speaker of the House, has stated that he will not be voting for Trump. Jonathan discusses a poll that suggests that a significant number of Republicans are opposed to Trump being President despite their support for him. He concludes that the race is still very close and that the outcome is uncertain.
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The Alignment of Forecasting Models
🎦 25:49-26:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the current state of forecasting models. He notes that many models are predicting a Harris victory. He states that the consensus map is building that Harris will win the election through the Rust Belt region and Nevada. He argues that the alignment of models, despite their different backgrounds, experiences, and funders, is significant and suggests that Harris has the upper hand. He highlights the fact that Nevada has a history of being a Democratic state and that Republicans haven't won it on the presidential level since 2004.
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Wrap Up
🎦 26:56-27:47⏩
Jonathan concludes his analysis by stating that the election is still too close to call. He believes that Harris has a narrow lead, but that the outcome is still uncertain. He reminds viewers that polls can be inaccurate and that the Republican party is still capable of pulling off an upset. He also highlights the importance of the Mark Robinson scandal in North Carolina and the potential impact it could have on the election. He argues that Harris is in a strong position, but that she still needs to be cautious and not take anything for granted. He ends by stating that if the election was held today, he would call Harris the winner. He also reminds viewers that the Democratic party has a significant financial advantage over the Republicans. He thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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