Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News, NATO Summit Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Both of these things, if true, and no reason to disbelieve them, again, the question is, is this what you'd expect if everything was going well for Russia? Is this what you would expect if Russia didn't have any mobilisation issues? And of course the answer is, well, no, you wouldn't expect it unless things were desperate. So as desperate as they are for Ukraine, remember, they are too for Russia."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:34⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War Update focusing on military aid and equipment for the 11th of July 2024. He acknowledges being incredibly busy due to the volume of news, with upcoming elections and the NATO summit generating a lot of content. He promises to catch up on messages and mentions the upcoming NAFO campaign spearheaded by JR, expressing gratitude for JR’s contributions.
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NATO Summit: €40 Billion Aid Package for 2025
🎦 01:34-02:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the NATO summit, marking the organisation's 75th anniversary. NATO countries have agreed to provide €40 billion (approximately $43 billion) in aid to Ukraine in 2025. He clarifies that this figure represents a collective commitment from NATO members and is not in addition to existing bilateral contributions. He notes this commitment offers some reassurance regarding continued support for Ukraine, particularly in light of the upcoming US presidential election.
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Ukraine to Receive €2.5-€3 Billion Annually from Frozen Russian Assets
🎦 02:22-03:47⏩
Jonathan reports that profits from frozen Russian assets, estimated at €2.5-€3 billion annually, will be directed towards Ukraine's defence needs. The first tranche of €1.4-€1.5 billion (nearly $2 billion) is expected in early August and will likely be used for ammunition and air defence systems.
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France Expedites Delivery of 200 ASTER-30 Missiles
🎦 03:47-06:11⏩
Jonathan addresses a message from "French Aid to Ukraine", clarifying that French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu has used his authority to expedite the delivery of 200 ASTER-30 missiles for the SAMP/T air defence system. Initially scheduled for 2026, the missiles will now arrive this year. Lecornu seemingly utilised new governmental powers, implemented as part of a war economy strategy, to compel MBDA to prioritise production. Jonathan notes that in 2025, MBDA will deliver 1,200 ASTER missiles. He highlights the upcoming delivery of five SAMP/T systems to Ukraine – four Patriot systems and one SAMP/T from Italy – as part of the German-led "immediate action on air defence initiative".
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Norway Funds IRIS-T SLM Fire Unit for Ukraine, Allowing Germany to Reallocate Funds
🎦 06:11-07:15⏩
Jonathan reports that Norway will deliver an IRIS-T SLM fire unit to Ukraine this autumn as part of the German-led "immediate action on air defence initiative". Norway will provide additional funds of 1 billion Norwegian kroner (almost $93 million) for this purpose. He notes that Germany would have supplied the fire unit regardless, and Norway's contribution allows Germany to reallocate funds for new procurements.
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UK: Starmer and Zelensky Discuss "Practical Implementation" of Storm Shadow Missile Use Inside Russia
🎦 07:15-09:35⏩
Jonathan discusses UK Labour Party leader Keir Starmer's meeting with Zelensky, where the use of Storm Shadow missiles was a key topic. He highlights comments suggesting the discussion focused on the "practical implementation" of using these missiles inside Russia. While acknowledging previous UK Prime Minister Sunak had made similar statements, Jonathan ponders whether Starmer is providing more concrete details. He notes Zelensky’s public acknowledgement of permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets within Russian territory. However, Colby Dabar’s comment suggests this permission has existed for some time but remains unusable due to President Biden’s directive prohibiting Ukraine from using long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Jonathan speculates that the UK’s permission might be conditional on US approval, given potential ramifications such as the withholding of future aid.
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Debate on US vs European Contributions to Ukraine
🎦 09:35-11:04⏩
Jonathan addresses the debate surrounding the levels of support provided to Ukraine by the US and Europe. He cites Latvian President Edgards Rinkēvičs's assertion that Europe is actually contributing more than the US, contrary to claims by Trump and his supporters. Jonathan emphasizes that data supports Rinkēvičs's statement. While acknowledging the contributions of both, he aims to debunk misleading narratives that downplay Europe's role.
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European Provision of Key Military Equipment
🎦 11:04-12:21⏩
Jonathan, referencing Michael Weiss, highlights Europe’s significant contributions to Ukraine’s military capabilities. These include:
- Challenger main battle tanks (first to be provided)
- Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles (first to be provided)
- GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft from Sweden (first to be provided).
Jonathan notes the anticipated impact of the GlobalEye aircraft and their importance for future F-16 operations, despite delays in their arrival and the need for Ukrainian crews to undergo training. He also emphasizes that Europe loosened restrictions on using Western weapons inside Russia before the US.
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US Congressman Supports Ukraine's Right to Use Weapons as They See Fit
🎦 12:21-13:28⏩
Despite disagreeing with US Congressman Mike Johnson on other political and philosophical matters, Jonathan agrees with his stance on Ukraine's autonomy in using provided weapons. Johnson confirmed that Congress intended for Ukraine to have the flexibility to use weapons and assistance as they see fit in prosecuting the war, a view Jonathan supports. He contrasts this with the Biden administration's more cautious approach.
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UK-Led Drone Coalition: Funding and Contributions
🎦 13:28-14:39⏩
Jonathan announces a UK-led drone coalition, which includes the Netherlands, Latvia, New Zealand and Sweden, that aims to facilitate rapid drone delivery to Ukraine through joint procurement. The coalition has pledged over €45 million, with the Netherlands allocating an additional €20 million. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the exact allocation of the Dutch contribution but underlines the positive news of continuous support for drone procurement. He acknowledges that €20 million would not be enough to buy one million FPV drones, suggesting it might be an additional contribution to the €45 million fund.
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Canada Announces CA$500 Million Military Aid Package
🎦 14:39-15:07⏩
Jonathan reports that Canada, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has pledged CA$500 million (US$350 million) in military aid to Ukraine during the NATO summit. The package includes defence equipment, medical aid, and potentially pilot training.
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Lithuania Delivers Anti-Drone Equipment, Ammunition and Supplies to Ukraine
🎦 15:07-15:14⏩
Lithuania has delivered a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, including anti-drone equipment, 45 x 5.56 mm calibre cartridges, and folding beds.
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US Allocates Over $7 Million to Support Women in the Ukrainian Armed Forces
🎦 15:14-16:17⏩
Jonathan highlights that the US, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, will allocate over $7 million to support women in the Ukrainian armed forces. The aid will focus on providing over 10,000 uniforms, shoes, and other essential equipment specifically designed for women. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of Ukraine maximizing its human resources, with women playing a crucial role in the war effort. He acknowledges past issues regarding ill-fitting equipment for women in the military and applauds the US for directly addressing this.
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Northrop Grumman and Ukroboromprom Partner to Produce NATO-Standard Ammunition in Ukraine
🎦 16:17-17:22⏩
Jonathan announces that Ukroboromprom, Ukraine’s state-owned defence conglomerate, and Northrop Grumman, the American arms manufacturer, have signed an agreement to manufacture NATO-standard, medium-calibre ammunition in Ukraine. Production will initially focus on ammunition for various automatic guns, with plans for further expansion.
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Denmark Funds 18 Bogdana Self-Propelled Howitzers for Ukraine
🎦 17:22-17:58⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine will receive 18 Bogdana self-propelled howitzers, funded by Denmark. These howitzers are produced in Ukraine, and their production has been significantly ramped up. He commends Denmark’s support for Ukraine's domestic arms production. He mentions Denmark’s Defence Minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, signing an agreement at the NATO summit to enhance space-based surveillance and intelligence in collaboration with Ukraine, aiming to expedite and improve military support. The first donation of 18 Bogdana howitzers is expected to arrive in Ukraine within a few months.
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France and NATO to Collaborate on Long-Range Strike Capabilities
🎦 17:58-19:13⏩
Jonathan highlights the growing significance of long-range strike capabilities, as emphasized by French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu during the NATO summit. He points to a signed memorandum of understanding between France and NATO to initiate cooperation in this field, involving European defence industries. Jonathan speculates that such announcements indicate NATO's preparations for a potential US withdrawal or reduced involvement, prompted by a potential shift towards isolationism. He argues that this potential shift could lead to NATO allies prioritizing their own defence industries, impacting the US economy.
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Breaking News: Russia Planned to Assassinate Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger
🎦 19:13-21:09⏩
Jonathan shares breaking news, citing CNN and Shashank Joshi, revealing that US intelligence uncovered a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer actively supporting Ukraine. This plot was reportedly the most developed among several Russian plans targeting defence industry executives across Europe. Jonathan questions the appropriate response to such actions, which fall under the category of hybrid warfare. He suggests that this incident demands a more robust response than simply acknowledging it as typical Russian behaviour, especially considering its seriousness and escalatory nature. He criticizes the perceived double standard that allows Russia to operate with impunity while placing restrictions on Ukraine.
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Thousands Sign Up for Ukrainian Legion in Poland
🎦 21:09-22:09⏩
Jonathan reports that thousands have signed up for the Ukrainian Legion in Poland, according to Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. He highlights that many volunteers are eager to serve but insist on proper training and equipment before deployment. This initiative, spearheaded by Poland, is seen as a significant contribution to addressing Ukraine's need for well-trained soldiers. Jonathan praises Poland’s practical approach, which focuses on quality over quantity, and speculates that if more European countries adopted this model, Ukraine could significantly bolster its armed forces.
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Russia’s Desperate Measures for Recruitment
🎦 22:09-23:31⏩
Jonathan highlights two examples of Russia's increasingly desperate attempts to bolster its military ranks:
- QR codes linking to army recruitment centres printed on utility bills in Khabarovsk.
- Authorities in Tatarstan offering locals $1,000 for every person persuaded to fight in Ukraine.
Jonathan emphasizes that such measures indicate severe manpower shortages and desperation within Russia's war effort.
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Norway to Donate Six F-16s to Ukraine
🎦 23:31-25:12⏩
Jonathan reiterates Norway’s pledge to donate six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, with deliveries expected to commence this year. He cites Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, who stressed the importance of Ukraine's ability to defend against air attacks. Additionally, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has stated that Ukraine is already working to increase the number of F-16s it will receive.
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Analysis of F-16 Variants
🎦 25:12-29:14⏩
Jonathan addresses the capabilities of different F-16 variants being provided to Ukraine. He reads a comment from John Oliver, who provides a detailed analysis of the F-16s from Norway, the Netherlands, and Denmark.
- Norwegian F-16s: Block 15 with Midlife Update (MLU), equipped with APG-66 radars and capable of firing AIM-9 and AIM-120A air-to-air missiles.
- Netherlands F-16s: Officially F-16AB Block 20 MLU but reportedly upgraded to Block 50/52 capabilities, possessing AN/APG-66V-2A radars with a range exceeding 100 kilometres, a wider variety of precision munitions, and enhanced electronic warfare capabilities.
- Danish F-16s: Block 52 with upgraded engines and radars (V7 and V8), capable of firing AIM-120s, JDAMs, JSOWs, and Harpoon anti-ship missiles (line-of-sight only).
Jonathan expresses gratitude to John Oliver for his detailed research. He notes that while these F-16s are not primarily designed for air-to-air combat and might be outranged by Russian aircraft, their main roles will likely be missile and drone defence and potentially ground attack missions.
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Canada to Expand Training of Ukrainian F-16 Pilots
🎦 29:14-30:21⏩
Jonathan discusses Canada’s plans to expand the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots. He speculates that this might involve Canadian trainers assisting with programs in Romania, Denmark, or the US. He attributes the need for additional training capacity to the complexity of F-16 operations and the rigorous scheduling of training programs, which limits flexibility in accommodating a sudden influx of trainees. He refutes the notion that limited training spaces are the fault of the Biden administration, arguing that it's unrealistic to expect a rapid expansion of such specialized training infrastructure and personnel.
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Sweden Open to Providing Gripen Jets After F-16 Program Completion
🎦 30:21-32:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the possibility of Sweden supplying Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. While initially paused, potentially at the request of F-16 providers or Ukraine itself to focus on a single aircraft type, Sweden remains open to the idea once the F-16 integration is complete. He acknowledges conflicting reports regarding Ukraine’s stance on receiving Gripens concurrently with F-16s but stresses Sweden's continued willingness. He observes that Sweden would likely be the most eager to supply Gripens, as it would benefit their own defence industry through global marketing.
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Poland Declines Ukraine’s Request to Shoot Down Russian Missiles
🎦 32:23-34:48⏩
Jonathan discusses Poland’s refusal to comply with Ukraine’s request to shoot down Russian missiles heading towards their territory. The Polish Defence Minister clarified that such a decision requires unanimous NATO support, which is unlikely as it would significantly escalate the conflict. Jonathan understands Poland's reluctance to act unilaterally, as it could lead to a lack of NATO support in a crisis. He acknowledges the potential benefits of Poland’s assistance in western Ukraine but concedes that it's unlikely to materialize without full NATO backing, which is improbable given the risk of escalating the conflict.
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South Korea Develops Laser-Based Anti-Aircraft Weapon
🎦 34:48-37:13⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with a discussion of South Korea’s development of a laser-based anti-aircraft weapon designed to target drones. He compares it to the UK’s DragonFire laser system, which is reportedly cheaper to fire at £10 per shot (compared to South Korea's $1.50). He acknowledges that the effectiveness of these systems hinges on their range, with the UK version capable of hitting a one pound coin at one kilometre. Despite potential range limitations, Jonathan sees value in deploying such systems near sensitive targets to provide a cost-effective defence against drones.
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Wrap Up
🎦 37:13-37:13⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, acknowledging its length but emphasizing the importance of covering the significant military aid developments. He expresses hope that viewers found the information interesting and thanks them for their support.
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