Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Defense spending is an insurance policy. We don't like going to war. No one likes war. No one likes killing people. We're all kind of pacifistic in that idea. But we need insurance when we need it. And when we need it, goodness, we need it."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:16⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of the Ukraine War Update News for Christmas Eve.

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Germany to send two more AMPS to Ukraine (total of 4)

🎦 00:16-05:11⏩

Jonathan begins by discussing German Military aid for Ukraine. He notes comments from Ben Hodges, (former US forces in Europe commander) who believes that Germany is doing a great job in supporting Ukraine and becoming a true "arsenal of democracy" - although he does not understand German Chancellor Scholz' reluctance to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Jonathan refers to a previous interview he did with the twitter account "Germany to Ukraine" and his guest's view that Scholz's approach appears to be to wait for the US to act first, rather than being a leader and pushing things forward himself. Despite this, Jonathan believes Germany is doing a "phenomenal job" and highlights that they have recently supplied two more AMPS (Airborne Missile Protection Systems) to Ukraine - taking the total to four. He plays a video clip which explains what they are and how they work. In essence, AMPS is a modular, high value warning and defence/countermeasure system which protects airframes (e.g. helicopters or planes) from attack. They work on a standalone basis or can be integrated into the avionic system/controlled by a pilot. They can detect incoming projectiles/missiles and automatically deploy countermeasures (chaff, flares, lasers) to guide the missiles away. Jonathan highlights this removes the need for pilots to guess when to deploy countermeasures and risk running out when they are needed most.

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Germany proposes raising taxes to fund military aid

🎦 05:11-05:38⏩

Jonathan reports that Germany has proposed raising taxes to help Ukraine - this idea has come from the Head of the Economic Council of the Cabinet of Ministers, Monica Schnitzer. The idea would see an "income tax surcharge for military aid". This is just a proposal at this stage, but may be an option.

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UK may increase aid to Ukraine next year - David Cameron returns as Foreign Secretary

🎦 05:38-10:26⏩

Jonathan talks about the UK's potential to increase aid to Ukraine next year, even above 2022 and 2023 levels. This is according to Foreign Secretary, David Cameron. Jonathan goes on to explain David Cameron's background as former Prime Minister and his role in calling the Brexit referendum to appease the Eurosceptic ERG (European Research Group) on the right of the Conservative party. The referendum backfired when the Remain campaign (which Cameron supported) lost. This led to a unique situation where both sides of the debate ended up disliking Cameron for different reasons. As a result, Cameron resigned as PM and spent seven years in political wilderness (in stark contrast to other former world leaders). However, new PM Rishi Sunak has brought Cameron back into the fold as Foreign Secretary as he believes that Cameron can be an asset when it comes to foreign diplomacy (in a way that Sunak is unable to be). This analysis leads Jonathan to believe that this could be a good thing for Ukraine, as Cameron has a lot to prove and will want to make his mark and demonstrate his ability on the world stage.

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London to send four-wheel drives to Ukraine under ULEZ scrappage scheme

🎦 10:26-11:07⏩

Jonathan reports that London will be sending four-wheel drives to Ukraine. This is after Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, and former Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, sent a letter to Transport Secretary, Mark Harper, to change the rules relating to the ULEZ (Ultra Low Emission Zone) scrappage scheme. Jonathan believes that there may have been some initial reluctance from Khan to agree to this, following pressure from the public.

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More about London's ULEZ scrappage scheme

🎦 11:07-11:56⏩

Jonathan goes on to explain London's ULEZ scrappage scheme in more detail. Due to high levels of pollution from vehicles, the scheme has been set up to encourage drivers to scrap their high-emission vehicles and replace them with lower-emission vehicles, such as electric cars. The government pays vehicle owners to scrap their cars. However, the war in Ukraine has meant that the scheme is being adapted so that those vehicles due to be scrapped are sent to Ukraine instead to help with the war effort. There were some legal issues with this approach, but these appear to have been resolved.

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Poland's new Foreign Minister calls on Europe to rearm against Russia

🎦 11:56-13:04⏩

Poland's new Foreign Minister, Zbigniew Rau, has called on European countries to increase their military strength and rearm in the face of the threat posed by Russia. He believes that wars are ultimately decided by industrial capacity and the ability to outproduce adversaries (rather than tactical engagements). This chimes with Jonathan's previous point about defense spending being like an insurance policy and the West's need to increase its defense spending significantly in order to counter the threat.

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Jonathan's pub conversation with a friend about the Ukraine war

🎦 13:04-15:37⏩

Jonathan digresses slightly to share a conversation he had with a friend down the pub the previous evening. Despite being a "highbrow" individual, Jonathan was surprised to discover that his friend had not heard of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). What's more, he was also found to be repeating a number of Pro-Russian talking points despite being Pro-Ukraine. This led Jonathan to question the levels of knowledge amongst the general public when it comes to geopolitics and the Ukraine war and the influence of Russian propaganda and misinformation which appears to be infiltrating some sections of Western media. He goes on to draw parallels with the Brexit campaign and the view that the general public are not sufficiently well informed about complex topics such as the EU or the geopolitical situation in Ukraine to make rational judgements.

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The Paradox of Tolerance

🎦 15:37-17:25⏩

Jonathan describes another aspect of his pub conversation the previous evening - his views on pacifism and the so-called "Paradox of Tolerance". He describes himself as a pacifist, but acknowledges that the Paradox of Tolerance means that tolerance of intolerant views can ultimately lead to the downfall of tolerant societies. This leads him to advocate for "tolerance with teeth" and "liberalism with teeth" as a way of countering these intolerant views.

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Defense spending is like an insurance policy

🎦 17:25-19:30⏩

Jonathan explains that he came to a realisation the previous evening - that defense spending is like an insurance policy. He draws parallels with how people are often reluctant to pay insurance, but are thankful they have it when they need to claim. He believes that countries need to view defense in the same way - no one wants war, but when it comes to it, it is essential to have the means to defend yourself effectively. Just as with insurance, it is important to have a good policy with sufficient coverage - for this reason it is essential for countries to invest in strong armed forces. In this way, he believes that investment in Ukraine should be viewed as an investment in the West's "insurance policy" and global security. He sees this as being in alignment with the Polish Foreign Minister's earlier comments.

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Russia stepping up mobilisation efforts

🎦 19:30-23:40⏩

Moving on, Jonathan references a recent ISW analysis on Russian mobilisation efforts. A Ukrainian intelligence source reported that Russia is stepping up efforts to replace its losses and sustain offensive operations. These efforts involve recruiting and training large numbers of conscripts and deploying them to the front lines - with some reports suggesting that new recruits are being sent to fight after just two weeks training. This is in line with footage he shared previously. Although Russia does not have large reserve forces, they are able to generate large numbers of new recruits through mobilisation. Jonathan estimates that Russia is able to recruit 30-37,000 new personnel every month, who are being used to replenish losses and maintain their offensive operations. He highlights that this approach prevents Russia from resting and rotating front line troops effectively and that even these high levels of mobilisation may not be sufficient to replace losses in the long run if Ukraine is able to maintain its rate of attrition.

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Russia to allow Rosgvardia to recruit volunteers

🎦 23:40-24:39⏩

In further evidence of manpower issues, Jonathan reports that the Russian Federation Council has approved a new law which will allow Rosgvardia (Russia's internal security force) to form and manage volunteer units. This demonstrates the lengths Russia is prepared to go to in order to bolster its ranks. Jonathan views this as further evidence that Russia is getting desperate.

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Putin open to ceasefire if Russia keeps occupied territories

🎦 24:39-27:33⏩

Jonathan cites reports from the New York Times and other sources that Putin may be open to a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine - but only on the condition that Russia is able to keep the Ukrainian territory it has occupied since the war began. However, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, does not believe that Putin is serious about ending the war. Jonathan agrees with this assessment and believes that Putin will not be satisfied until Russia achieves complete victory and control of Ukraine. He argues that Putin has made numerous miscalculations during the conflict so far - underestimating the strength of the Ukrainian resistance and the resolve of the West to stand up to Russia - but ultimately he has invested too much into the campaign to back down and will continue fighting at all costs. This is a view shared by Borrell, who believes that Russia represents a significant threat to its neighbours and Europe as a whole and that the EU must do everything it can to support Ukraine. Borrell believes that Russia has always been an empire and a threat to its neighbours, a view Jonathan wholeheartedly agrees with.

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German tabloid Bild: Russia may attack Europe next winter

🎦 27:33-28:26⏩

Jonathan discusses a recent article in German Tabloid, Bild, which claims that European intelligence sources believe that Russia may attack a European country next winter if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election in 2024. Jonathan highlights that this is a genuine concern for many in Europe.

Finland to pay refugees 5300 EUR to return home

🎦 28:26-29:04⏩

In other news, Jonathan reports that Finland will start paying refugees 5,300 EUR to return to their home countries from 1st January 2024. He speculates that this may be linked to Ukraine’s efforts to encourage military-age men living abroad to return home to fight.

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Polish truckers unblock border crossing

🎦 29:04-29:29⏩

Jonathan shares the good news that Polish truck drivers have unblocked the key border crossing between Poland and Ukraine at Shehyni-Medyka following a recent visit to Kyiv from Poland’s Foreign Minister.

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Jonathan's view of Polish news channel TVP

🎦 29:29-32:36⏩

Jonathan refers to the recent closure of Polish state-owned television channel, TVP, following the election of Donald Tusk as PM. One of his viewers was upset by this news, as TVP was strongly pro-Ukrainian, and believed that Tusk's actions demonstrate that he is anti-Ukraine. However, Jonathan cautions against this interpretation of events. He argues that whilst TVP may have supported Ukraine, it was essentially a "massive propaganda channel" for the previous Law and Justice Party (PiS) government. He cites the recent Polish election results, in which the motion to close TVP was passed with a large majority, as evidence that the channel had become too partisan in its coverage. For this reason, Jonathan believes that Tusk made the right decision to close the channel, despite its pro-Ukrainian stance, and that viewers should be wary of accepting TVP's coverage of events at face value.

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Hungary implicated in Slovakian elections

🎦 32:36-33:31⏩

Jonathan reports that investigative journalists have uncovered evidence that advisors to Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, may have interfered in the recent Slovakian elections to help pro-Russian Robert Fico into power. He believes that this is a worrying development and demonstrates the threat that Orban (and by extension, Putin) poses to free and fair elections in Europe.

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Wrap up

🎦 33:31-33:55⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them about his upcoming live stream with a guest. He signs off by wishing everyone a Merry Christmas.

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