Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is just doing horrific stuff."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:34⏩
Jonathan expresses excitement about a potential US aid bill for Ukraine. He anticipates it will easily pass through the House of Representatives and Senate. The White House has indicated logistical readiness, with equipment likely positioned in Europe for immediate transfer upon approval. Jonathan highlights the urgency and potential game-changing impact of this aid.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 02:34-03:47⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting 750 personnel, 8 tanks, 21 APVs, and 20 artillery systems. While acknowledging a slight decrease from the previous week, he considers them relatively positive, attributing the lower activity to weather conditions and potential Russian resource constraints or strategic withholding for future offensives.
Return to top⤴️
Data Volume and Drone Usage
🎦 03:47-05:46⏩
Jonathan highlights the overwhelming amount of data being processed, with a significant increase in video clips (702) compared to the previous summer (140). He attributes this surge to the escalating use of drones by both sides. Jonathan acknowledges the efforts of Andrew Perpetua and his team in analysing the data and encourages viewers to offer assistance if possible, describing the work as demanding but crucial for consistent, comparable data.
Return to top⤴️
Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 05:46-09:47⏩
Jonathan analyses recent equipment losses using data compiled by Andrew Perpetua's team, noting a smaller list than usual with a 2.5-3:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses. He speculates that the lower Ukrainian losses might be due to their defensive posture and limited equipment use near the frontlines to minimize vulnerability to drone attacks. Jonathan finds it noteworthy that Russia is increasingly employing Lancet drones, typically used for high-value targets, to target Ukrainian equipment further behind the lines. He analyses the significance of specific Russian losses, including a 222M3, T-90s, and electronic warfare equipment, highlighting their potential impact.
Return to top⤴️
Visualisation of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 09:47-11:20⏩
Jonathan presents a video visualisation showcasing the extensive equipment losses suffered by Russian forces near Novo-Mykhailivka. The video depicts a map where each destroyed piece of equipment is represented by a dot, illustrating the sheer scale of Russian losses in the area, which amounts to 312. Jonathan expresses astonishment at this figure, emphasising that these are confirmed losses.
Return to top⤴️
Casualties and Deaths
🎦 11:20-15:06⏩
Jonathan reports on recent casualties, including the death of a Russian colonel and brigade commander in a Storm Shadow strike on Luhansk. He also mentions the alleged murder of American Russian-backed fighter Russell Bentley, highlighting conflicting accounts but suggesting Russian servicemen may be responsible. Jonathan then discusses the death of pro-Russian YouTuber Misha from Canada in a motorcycle accident in Crimea and the death of a Russian military correspondent, Semyon Yeramin, in a Ukrainian FPV drone attack. He points out growing dissatisfaction among Russian war correspondents, exemplified by propagandist Sladkov's criticism of their treatment, particularly regarding benefits and recognition as participants in hostilities.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Internal Incidents
🎦 15:06-16:08⏩
Jonathan reports on a shooting in the Vinnytsia region of Ukraine, where two police officers were shot after stopping a car for inspection, resulting in one fatality and one injury. He raises the possibility of Russian involvement but acknowledges the lack of conclusive evidence.
Return to top⤴️
Fire in Occupied Kakhova
🎦 16:08-16:14⏩
Jonathan mentions a large fire in Russian-occupied Kakhova on the left bank of the Dnipro River. While unsure about the cause, he speculates that it resulted from general shelling and shows footage of thick smoke billowing from the targeted area.
Return to top⤴️
Confirmation of S-200 Missile System Use
🎦 16:14-19:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the confirmation by Ukraine's military intelligence chief, General Budanov, that the Russian 222M3 bomber was shot down using an S-200 missile system – a Soviet-era weapon with a range of up to 300km. This information also confirms suspicions that the previously downed A-50 radar plane was targeted using the same method. Jonathan praises Ukraine's resourcefulness in repurposing older equipment for strategic advantage, highlighting the effectiveness of the S-200 in destroying high-value assets.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Agricultural Products
🎦 19:12-20:30⏩
Jonathan reports on Russian missile strikes targeting agricultural products in Odessa intended for export to Asia and Africa. He cites Twitter user Jay and Keith's claim that Russia fired $50 million worth of missiles at Ukrainian ports, aiming to destroy grain shipments. Jonathan condemns these actions, recalling Russia's previous threats to disrupt global food supplies and endorsing calls for Ukraine to receive means to neutralize Russia's bomber fleet.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Regions
🎦 20:30-24:56⏩
Jonathan details Ukrainian drone attacks on eight Russian regions, with varying reports on the extent of the damage. While Russia claims to have shot down all 50 drones involved, Jonathan casts doubt on this assertion. He highlights a substation fire in Bryansk Oblast, speculating about its significance and the potential disruption it may cause to Russia's energy infrastructure. Jonathan also mentions reports of attacks on substations in Ufa and Kaluga, and a strike on a substation near the Kursk nuclear power plant. He emphasises the wide-ranging nature of these attacks, particularly those targeting energy infrastructure.
Return to top⤴️
Explosion in Occupied Donetsk City
🎦 24:56-25:25⏩
Jonathan mentions an explosion in Russian-occupied Donetsk city, acknowledging the limited information available but speculating that it might have been a longer-range artillery strike or potentially a HIMARS or Storm Shadow missile attack.
Return to top⤴️
Aftermath of Attack on Jankoi Airfield
🎦 25:25-26:33⏩
Jonathan revisits the recent attack on Jankoi airfield in Crimea, where an S-400 radar system and other equipment were destroyed. He presents footage confirming the destruction and marvels at the precision of the strike, which targeted four S-400 systems simultaneously. Jonathan notes that the use of tactical ballistic missiles (Tochka-U) in this attack, a weapon not seen in use for some time, raises questions about whether Ukraine acquired them recently or held them in reserve after previous strikes on Russian airbases.
Return to top⤴️
Satellite Imagery of Damaged Radar System
🎦 26:33-27:41⏩
Jonathan presents satellite imagery confirming the damage to a Russian over-the-horizon radar system, likely caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. The imagery reveals a scorched area near the antenna, supporting earlier reports of smoke from the site. Jonathan highlights the strategic significance of this radar system, designed for long-distance airspace monitoring and ballistic missile detection.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Missile Attacks on Dnipro
🎦 27:41-31:53⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the aftermath of the Russian missile attacks on Dnipro, expressing his horror at the devastation inflicted upon the city. He shares footage of the destruction, showing heavily damaged civilian homes and recounting the tragic stories of residents affected by the attacks, including the loss of life and the emotional toll on survivors. Jonathan particularly highlights the plight of pets caught in the crossfire, sharing stories of animals losing their owners and homes.
Return to top⤴️
Russia Confiscating Cars for Military
🎦 31:53-34:12⏩
Jonathan points to a recent incident in Russia where a drunk driver's car was confiscated and handed over to the military for use in the war effort. While acknowledging the practice of confiscating vehicles from drunk drivers in some Baltic countries for donation to Ukraine, he argues that Russia resorting to this tactic suggests a growing desperation for vehicles due to heavy losses on the battlefield, further evidenced by the previous day's figures of destroyed and damaged Russian vehicles. Jonathan then touches upon the state of Russia's artillery capabilities, suggesting that their reliance on outdated ammunition and potential supply shortages further indicate their struggles. He presents a photograph of rusty 152mm artillery shells being prepared for use by Russian forces, highlighting the challenges they face in maintaining their artillery capacity.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 34:12-34:16⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for watching and expressing gratitude for their support.
Return to top⤴️
