Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS/ANALYSIS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello Team | 00:00-00:33⏩ |
| 2 | Russian Losses | 00:33-03:14⏩ |
| 3 | Oryx Loss List Review | 03:14-08:13⏩ |
| 4 | Evidence of Russian Losses - Rostov Hospital | 08:13-09:50⏩ Jonathan highlights footage that has emerged that appears to show wounded Russian soldiers outside a hospital in Rostov-on-Don, close to the front lines, but still inside Russia. Jonathan remarks that whilst this doesn't necessarily mean the hospital is full, it "certainly doesn't look good."
Return to top⤴️ Evidence of Russian Losses - Saratov CemeteryJonathan shows footage of a cemetery in Saratov, Russia that is filling up with the bodies of dead Russian soldiers. Saratov is several hundred kilometres from Ukraine. The person filming the footage notes how the cemetery has been "prudently chosen with a large margin because the war goes on until the last Russian". Return to top⤴️ Humorous Interlude - Drone Strike on Russian Soldiers carrying a StretcherFootage is shown of a drone strike on five Russian soldiers - four of whom are carrying an injured soldier on a stretcher. Two IEDs are dropped and miss their targets. Whilst the soldiers scatter, it is the soldier on the stretcher that is first to get up and flee the scene, running faster than those that were carrying him. Return to top⤴️ User Comment - Why are Russian Tank Losses so "Erratic"?Jonathan addresses a comment from user "iCurrent" about the erratic nature of Russian tank losses, which Jonathan agrees with - some days there are very few losses and other days a significant number are lost.
Jonathan reads iCurrent's plausible explanation which is as follows:
Return to top⤴️ Russian Ammunition Issues - S60 Catastrophic Explosion |
"Russia are failing. Russia are failing big time. That's not to say Ukraine aren't without massive concerns in terms of mobilisation, in terms of energy infrastructure, I think is the biggest weakness. Medium-range drones that are allowing Russia to hit these airbases. These are big worries. But in terms of what's going on on front lines, as terrible as that is, Russia are weakening themselves on a week-by-week basis."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the 4th of July 2024 update (it's a bumper one!). He reminds British viewers that it's Voting Day and encourages them to get out there and vote (as he will be doing later).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:33-03:14⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 3rd of July and notes that 1,200 Russian personnel losses is high and 65 artillery systems destroyed is three times the average. He questions whether the high rate of artillery losses is impacting Russia's ability to sustain it's bombardments and wonders aloud if they are running out of barrels/shells, especially given how many are destroyed each day. Jonathan remarks how Russia had massive stockpiles of equipment at the beginning of the war as evidenced by satellite imagery, but notes they are now using much older equipment such as D-20s and D-30 howitzers, which indicates they are having to use older equipment.
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Oryx Loss List Review
🎦 03:14-08:13⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's loss list for 3rd July, which indicates a 3:1 loss ratio in favour of Ukraine (65 Russian losses vs 23 Ukrainian losses). When looking at combat assets, this increases to almost 4:1 in favour of Ukraine (22 Russian combat assets lost vs 6 Ukrainian). The concerning losses for Ukraine are:
- A Mig-29 (possibly destroyed) following an Iskander strike
- Two air defence systems (a Tunguska and an Osa)
- Various surveillance and comms equipment
Jonathan notes how the repeated Iskander strikes on airbases are a "grating issue" for the Ukrainians, The most significant loss for Russia was a Nebo-SVU radar system, which Jonathan estimates to be worth $100 million. He notes that three D-30 howitzers were also destroyed. Jonathan remarks on the number of Russian "Track Garden Shed" tanks that appear on the list (T-72 tanks that have been uparmoured with corrugated iron and re-purposed). Jonathan believes this highlights a suboptimal situation for the Russians as it suggests they may have a shortage of APCs/Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs).
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Evidence of Russian Losses - Rostov Hospital
08:13-09:50⏩
Jonathan highlights footage that has emerged that appears to show wounded Russian soldiers outside a hospital in Rostov-on-Don, close to the front lines, but still inside Russia. Jonathan remarks that whilst this doesn't necessarily mean the hospital is full, it "certainly doesn't look good."
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Evidence of Russian Losses - Saratov Cemetery
09:50-10:00⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a cemetery in Saratov, Russia that is filling up with the bodies of dead Russian soldiers. Saratov is several hundred kilometres from Ukraine. The person filming the footage notes how the cemetery has been "prudently chosen with a large margin because the war goes on until the last Russian".
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Humorous Interlude - Drone Strike on Russian Soldiers carrying a Stretcher
10:00-10:59⏩
Footage is shown of a drone strike on five Russian soldiers - four of whom are carrying an injured soldier on a stretcher. Two IEDs are dropped and miss their targets. Whilst the soldiers scatter, it is the soldier on the stretcher that is first to get up and flee the scene, running faster than those that were carrying him.
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User Comment - Why are Russian Tank Losses so "Erratic"?
10:59-15:48⏩
Jonathan addresses a comment from user "iCurrent" about the erratic nature of Russian tank losses, which Jonathan agrees with - some days there are very few losses and other days a significant number are lost. Jonathan reads iCurrent's plausible explanation which is as follows:
- Erratic Tank Arrivals Due to Shortages & Logistical Constraints: Russia is facing a shortage of tanks and logistical challenges in transporting them to the frontlines.
- Grouped Shipments: To mitigate losses, Russia may be waiting until they can send a full trainload of equipment, including tanks, ammunition, and other vehicles, rather than dispatching smaller, more vulnerable trains.
- Drone Density & Deep Penetration: Ukraine's effective use of drones, particularly loitering munitions, poses a significant threat to stationary Russian vehicles, including tanks.
- Immediate Deployment to Mitigate Risk: To avoid their tanks becoming sitting ducks, Russian forces likely deploy them immediately upon arrival, resulting in intense periods of tank engagement and potentially higher losses.
- Combat Role Shifts: Russian tanks are also being modified for unconventional roles, such as heavily armored troop carriers, to enhance survivability. However, these adaptations may not fully mitigate the threat posed by Ukrainian drones and anti-tank weapons.
- Use of All Available Resources: There have been reports of wounded Russian soldiers being sent back to the front lines, even with severe injuries. This suggests a desperate need to maintain troop numbers and a willingness to sacrifice individual soldiers for minimal tactical gain.
Jonathan notes how the erratic loss of tanks is likely linked to erratic procurement and the arrival of tanks to the frontline and how Russia's military has been severely depleted during the war and is a shadow of its former self. He agrees with iCurrent that Russia is having to use all its available resources due to the highly attritional nature of the war.
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Russian Ammunition Issues - S60 Catastrophic Explosion
🎦 15:48-17:33⏩
Jonathan shows footage of the catastrophic detonation of ammunition on a Russian MTLB armoured vehicle that has had an S60 anti-aircraft gun retrofitted to it. Jonathan says that this incident highlights how important it is to ensure barrels are well-maintained and to use decent ordnance to avoid losing equipment and trained crew. He suspects that poor maintenance or substandard ammunition is to blame.
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HIMARS Strike on a NEBO-SVU Radar System
17:33-18:50⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a $100 million Russian Nebo-SVU radar system being hit by a HIMARS rocket. The strike, although not a direct hit, sends tungsten ball bearings through the radar system, destroying it.
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Russian Sailor Defects to Ukraine and Sabotages Warship
18:50-21:45⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian sailor sabotaged the Russian Baltic Fleet ship Serpukhov in April 2024 before defecting to Ukraine and joining the Freedom of Russia Legion. The sailor, who had been serving in the Russian Navy for 11 years and had access to state secrets, supplied Ukrainian intelligence with important data. Fearing for his safety he then decided to sabotage the Serpukhov, damaging its communication and automation systems before fleeing to Ukraine. The ship, which is one of Russia's most modern, is now in need of lengthy and expensive repairs.
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Fire at a Chemical Warehouse in Sverdlovsk
21:45-22:17⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire at a chemical warehouse in Sverdlovsk, Russia. Locals reported hearing explosions.
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Drone and Missile Strikes Overnight on 2nd July 2024
22:17-23:46⏩
Jonathan reports that 22 Iranian-provided Shahed drones were launched at Ukraine, with 21 being shot down. The one that got through hit energy infrastructure in Chernihiv. Jonathan refers to analysis from "Shahed Tracker", which indicates that Shahed drone attacks were less frequent in June than in May, but that interception rates have also fallen slightly. He speculates that this may be due to recent successful Ukrainian strikes on Shahed drone warehouses.
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Russian Naval Blogger Blames "Binge Drinking" for Drone Attack on Novorossiysk
23:46-25:30⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian naval blogger who has blamed "binge drinking" by a Russian officer for a Ukrainian sea drone attack on Novorossiysk on the 2nd of July, which forced residents to rush to protect themselves and their children. The blogger claims that the drones were able to get too close to the ships in the harbour before they were detected.
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Update on Russian Missile Attack on Dnipro
25:30-26:31⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the missile attack on Dnipro on the 2nd of July 2024 that hit a shopping centre and a "machine-building plant". A total of 40 people were injured and 5 killed. Jonathan expresses his disgust at people who seek to justify Russian actions.
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Explosions in Kursk and Belgorod
26:31-31:05⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions in Kursk, Russia. He highlights the differences between the Ukrainian and Russian approaches to targeting, pointing out that Ukraine tends to focus on military targets, energy infrastructure and facilities that directly contribute to the Russian war effort. Jonathan provides an example of this - on the 1st of July, Ukrainian drones attacked the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant in Belgorod, causing serious damage. This plant is the only one in Russia that produces metal that is free of impurities, which is essential for the Russian military-industrial complex. The drone strikes knocked out two electrical substations that power the plant, which caused the metal inside the plant's electric arc furnaces to solidify, requiring a lengthy repair process. Jonathan notes how important electric arc furnaces are to the steel-making industry (the UK is looking to transition to electric arc furnaces in the future). He lauds the Ukrainian's strategic targeting in this instance.
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Third Ukrainian Airbase Attacked in Three Days - Dolgintsevo Air Base
31:05-35:31⏩
For the third consecutive day, a Ukrainian air base has been attacked, this time it was Dolgintsevo Air Base near Kryvyi Rih. Russia claims to have used an Iskander-M ballistic missile to destroy a Mig-29 fighter jet, two Su-25 jets and that 15 servicemen were killed. Jonathan questions these claims after footage was released by Russia that was cut short. He suspects that this is because Russia is trying to hide the fact it did not inflict as much damage as they are claiming. Jonathan highlights that whilst the Ukrainians have attempted to protect aircraft with drone cages and shelters, they offer little protection against ballistic missiles. Jonathan notes that in recent days Mirgorod and Poltava air bases have also been targeted and questions how Russia knew aircraft would be present without the use of reconnaissance drones (which are causing a real headache for the Ukrainians). Jonathan points out that the US has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine totalling $2.3 billion, of which $150 million will be used to provide additional munitions including more HAWK missiles, with the rest being used to procure Patriot interceptors. Jonathan explains that the Ukrainians are still using HAWK air defence systems (donated by the US, Spain and other nations) which are very old. Jonathan is impressed that the Ukrainians are still able to put these ageing systems to good use.
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Russian Territorial Gains in Chasiv Yar - The Situation Explained
35:31-51:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the grinding Russian advance in the Chasiv Yar area. He notes that whilst it was expected that Chasiv Yar would have fallen by now, the Russian advance has been much slower than anticipated, partly due to the well-defended nature of the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defensive line. Jonathan reports on an article by the BBC about Russia's use of "meat assaults" in the Kharkiv region (similar to the Wagner tactics used in Bakhmut) in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian positions, identify Ukrainian firing positions and wear down Ukrainian troops. This tactic has resulted in high casualties for the Russians. According to Zelensky, the casualty ratio is now 6:1 in favour of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region - this is up from 4:1. Jonathan notes how these figures (if correct), indicate that the Ukrainian forces are being very effective and that they also enable us to calculate approximate Ukrainian losses each day. Jonathan remarks how the fact that Russia is having to resort to using "crippled regiments" (sending wounded soldiers back to fight) highlights that they are having to resort to desperate measures. He draws parallels to Russia's equipment losses - how they are having to use older, less capable equipment as well as civilian vehicles due to losses of modern equipment. Jonathan laments the loss of life on both sides but remarks that it is important to remember that it is Russia that invaded. Jonathan highlights a Ukrainian complaint that western military aid has been too slow in arriving, with one official claiming that whilst they are receiving enough support to avoid defeat, they are not receiving enough to win. The use of US-provided longer range weapons that can strike targets inside Russia has had a positive impact, enabling the Ukrainians to slow the Russian advance in the Kharkiv region. One Ukrainian official is quoted as saying: "If we have to fight with our hands tied behind our back, you know we'll be only bleeding to death". There is a sense that Ukraine is becoming increasingly frustrated by what they perceive as the West's incremental approach to supplying weapons, fearing escalation. Jonathan highlights comments from former Ukrainian security service officer Ivan Stupak who believes that the war is heading towards stalemate and that this may ultimately force some sort of negotiated settlement.
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Andrew Perpetua's Take on the Current Situation - Russia is Dramatically Behind Schedule
51:05-51:05⏩
Jonathan highlights Andrew Perpetua's assessment of the current situation, which is that Russia is failing "big time". Jonathan notes how Perpetua has been accused of being overly negative in the past, however, Jonathan believes his more recent assessments about the situation have been accurate. Perpetua has said that whilst Russia is making minor advances, these are coming at a huge cost. He uses the examples of the Russian advance on Chasiv Yar and the area north of Ocheretyne, where despite heavy losses they have been unable to dislodge Ukrainian defenders. Perpetua has also been surprised at how well the Ukrainians have defended the small villages of Pobjeda (south of Marinka) and Novomykhailivka (south of Avdiivka), which have prevented the Russians from flanking Ukrainian positions. Jonathan and Perpetua both agree that Russia is being dramatically weakened as a result of the high attrition rate it is suffering. Jonathan reiterates his view that whilst the Ukrainians face significant challenges, particularly in terms of energy infrastructure and the need to counter medium range drones, they have been successful in stopping the Russian advance, which is only able to proceed at a snail's pace and at a massive cost. Jonathan urges viewers to ignore Russian trolls who claim that Andrew Perpetua's figures are not accurate. Jonathan agrees with the assessment of Twitter user "David D", that if the Russian advance continues at its current rate it will take 26 years to reach the Dnipro River.
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Russian General Teplinsky Wounded in a HIMARS Strike
51:05-53:06⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian General Mikhail Teplinsky was wounded in a HIMARS strike on a Russian command post in Henichesk in occupied Kherson Oblast. A total of 5 Russian soldiers were killed and 12 were injured in the attack, which targeted a two-storey administrative building. Jonathan questions whether Russia is really doing as well as it claims given that one of its top generals has been wounded. He notes that the commander of the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade, Colonel Gorolyov, which is fighting near Vovchansk has been arrested on corruption charges and that General Popov was arrested because he criticised the way the war was being conducted.
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Zelensky Interview with Tucker Carlson?
53:06-54:35⏩
Jonathan discusses a rumour that Ukrainian President Zelensky may be interviewed by Tucker Carlson, which Jonathan believes would be a good idea.
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Rumours that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal is to be Replaced
54:35-54:35⏩
Jonathan reports on rumours that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal could be about to be replaced, possibly because of machinations by Andriy Yermak, the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.
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Heatwave!
54:35-55:34⏩
Jonathan talks about the heatwave in Europe with temperatures set to reach 41 degrees in Ukraine. He highlights how climate change is real (despite what Fox News viewers might believe) and that extreme heat can have an impact on the battlefield (disease, decomposition and increased water consumption, for example).
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Wrap Up
55:34-55:38⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asks them to like, subscribe and share. He acknowledges that the video was a long one and says goodbye.
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