Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"So the US has just switched sides"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:48⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War Update for 21st February 2025. Jonathan mentions an upcoming fundraising campaign that he is running with Jigaspaw (an organisation that he met during his visit to Lviv) to raise money to purchase much needed drones for Ukraine. Irina from Jigaspaw will be joining him in a future video. Jonathan spoke to Dimko Zhuklenko (who runs Jigaspaw with Irina) who is currently serving in the unmanned systems forces. Jonathan confirms that, as always, the Ukrainian General Staff estimated casualty figures can be found in the description below the video. Jonathan remarks that "The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives, for their children, for their sovereignty, for their nation. And the Russians are fighting for absolutely nothing other than a land grab and a power grab. And that is what is so egregious about this." Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching - "the figures that you make possible." Jonathan reminds his viewers that the daily figures, equipment losses, and actions of the Ukrainian people on the front line represent all that is good in the Ukraine war at the moment. He acknowledges that while the estimated Russian personnel losses from the Ukrainian General Staff are considerable (1,280), this number is actually lower than previous days. He highlights that losing 12 tanks per day is significant and above the daily average, going on to explain that the high number of tanks being lost in comparison to troop carrying armoured fighting vehicles is likely due to the Russian military using their tanks in a track guard and shed mode - treating them as glorified APCs (armoured personnel carriers) by putting a load of sheet metal on them. Jonathan comments that the number of artillery systems lost by Russia (52) is a huge number, along with 4 MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems). He's observed an interesting trend that according to the Ukrainian General Staff the Russians appear to be losing a lot of their air defence systems - an average of 1 a day since the beginning of the war, questioning the reasons for this. Jonathan comments that the number of vehicles and fuel tanks lost (143) is a high number and apologies for the absence of an Andrew Perpetua loss list, putting this down to a backlog. Jonathan notes that he has watched the video (showing a stopped column of Russian AFVs being hit by an FPV drone) numerous times, speculating that the vehicles must be inoperable to be positioned so close together. He ponders that this footage is just a small snapshot of the incredible amount of equipment that the Russians are losing daily and that this really hits home when watching this kind of footage.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Oryx Losses - Kursk update
🎦 04:42-06:41⏩
Jonathan reports that in the Kursk sector, 59 Ukrainian losses and 52 Russian losses have been added to the publicly available visually confirmed Oryx loss list since the last update from this sector on 27th January 2025. Jonathan finds it interesting that Ukrainian equipment losses have now exceeded the Russian losses, viewing this as a potential indication that Ukraine is on the offensive in this sector (usually incurring heavier losses when attacking). He observes that the list details the types of vehicles lost - T-64 and T-72 tanks (no western tanks).
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Ukraine: Russian Air Defence System Destroyed
🎦 06:41-08:16⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been confirmation from Ukrainian forces that a Russian Buk-M3 air defence system has been destroyed in the Southern combat zone in the past 24 hours. This is further corroborated by Ronin (65th Mechanised Brigade) who has reported the destruction of 3 Buk-M3 air defence systems in recent days. Jonathan speculates on the reasons behind this trend - questioning whether this is an explicit military objective (a precursor to Ukrainian aircraft operating closer to the front line) or an anomaly. He speculates whether France and/or Denmark will supply Mirage or F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine for use in a more offensive capacity to support ground operations, and acknowledges that we will be looking at some bad news for Ukrainian planes later in the video.
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Ukraine: Assassination of Russian Official
🎦 08:24-08:47⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian official has been assassinated by partisans in occupied Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov (near Mariupol) - his car exploded this morning. Yevgeny Bogdanov, the deputy head of the administration appointed by Moscow was accused of war crimes against the Ukrainian people.
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Russia: Plastic Manufacturing Plant Fire
🎦 08:49-09:24⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire that has broken out at a plastics factory in Kaluga Oblast, Russia. The blaze appears to be significant. Jonathan questions whether the fire is war related (perhaps a drone strike or sabotage) given the high number of similar incidents that have taken place in Russia since the beginning of the war.
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Ukraine: Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 09:24-11:03⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has once again been subjected to a massive wave of Iranian made Shahed drones - 160 in total, of which 87 were shot down and 70 suppressed by electronic warfare. This means that only 3 got through to their targets. Russia also launched a couple of Iskander-M (KN-23) ballistic missiles - there are no reports of any being shot down. Footage has emerged of one of the Shahed drones hitting a residential building in Kyiv. Jonathan comments on how rare it is to see this kind of footage coming out of Kyiv and questions whether the drone was brought down by electronic warfare (given the speed at which it hits the building) or whether this was actually its target. He goes on to say that Kostlantynivka (a settlement behind Chasiv Yar) has also been bombed by Russian glide bombs, resulting in the death of a 40 year old man. 2 other people were injured and 9 houses and 3 non-residential buildings sustained damage. Jonathan states that it's currently unknown what the target was.
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Ukraine: Gas Imports from Europe
🎦 11:03-12:37⏩
Jonathan reports that as a consequence of Russian attacks on it's gas infrastructure, Ukraine is planning to import up to 800 million cubic metres of gas from Europe throughout February and March 2025. This equates to around a 40% drop in production capacity. Russia has recently stepped up attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including gas fields, in recent weeks. The Ukrainian state gas company (Naftogaz) and DTEK have reported that facilities have been attacked and damaged at least twice so far in February. Prior to the attacks Ukraine was producing around 52 million cubic metres of gas daily, consuming between 110-140 million cubic metres a day during the winter. Ukraine covered the shortfall from it's gas storage, but the attacks on production are forcing them to turn to imports. A source who wishes to remain anonymous has stated that "we could do without imports this heating season, but the attacks on production are forcing us to import gas to compensate for the disreduction in domestic production". Jonathan reiterates the challenges facing Ukraine due to the successful Russian attacks on their energy sector. He specifically recalls a significant strike, potentially in Poltava, which caused major disruptions but can't quite remember the specifics.
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Ukraine: Long Range Weapons - Return on Investment
🎦 12:37-13:27⏩
Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of longer range weapons supplied to Ukraine by western allies, stating that for every $2 spent on longer range capabilities Ukraine destroys $10 worth of Russian equipment (a 5:1 return on investment), and that Russia must feel the economic cost of war to want peace. He remarks that it has been relatively quiet in terms of Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory over the past 3 nights - he suspects that this may be due to the fog of war and lack of reporting.
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Russia: Lukoil Refinery Strike
🎦 13:27-14:13⏩
Jonathan, citing Saiba Barashno, confirms that analysis of satellite imagery confirms that the strike that hit Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod refinery between 28-29 January 2025 hit a fractionation column in the Western Catalytic Cracking Unit. He notes that this is a major blow to Russian fuel processing. Jonathan reported on this strike at the time but is now able to confirm the extent of the damage after analysis of the restricted satellite imagery.
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Russia: Hackers Target Signal Accounts
🎦 14:13-14:34⏩
Jonathan warns viewers that Russian hackers are targeting Signal Messenger accounts as part of growing espionage efforts. He's not surprised by this development as Google's threat intelligence group has also identified a rise in Russian state backed hacking attempts directed at Signal.
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Russia: North Korea Deploys More Troops
🎦 14:34-14:50⏩
Jonathan, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reports that North Korea has deployed large numbers of troops to the Kursk salient. Analysts have noted that they appear to have developed a number of new skills (although dealing with drones is not one of them), and are better clothed and better armed than Russian troops.
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Russia: Improved Missiles and Glide Bombs
🎦 14:50-16:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is upgrading its missiles and glide bombs. Russian sources claim that their cruise missiles are being upgraded with improved anti-jamming and countermeasures in an attempt to counter Ukrainian air defences, after a marked drop off in the number of missile attacks. This has been attributed to Ukrainian success in shooting them down, aided by experienced anti-air crews, increased use of fighter jets, and the use of captured guidance systems to compromise their effectiveness. Improvements to Russian glide bombs (a significant problem according to frontline troops) appear to centre around improvements to their terminal guidance, jamming and range. The range increase is significant as it allows the Russian Air Force to operate further away from the front line as a result of losing a number of aircraft. They are difficult to target and there are currently no effective countermeasures. Jonathan ponders whether this is a factor in the destruction of Russian Air Defence Systems by Ukraine, to enable the Ukrainian Air Force to operate closer to the front line. He acknowledges that to do so would put their aircraft at risk, as Russian aircraft have better range.
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Ukraine: Russia Builds New Railway Line
🎦 16:18-17:42⏩
Jonathan, reporting on analysis by Anton Gerashchenko, states that Russia has finished building a railway line from Rostov-on-Don, through Mariupol and Volnovakha, to Donetsk. Jonathan reported on the construction of the railway previously and it is now fully operational. The Mariupol City Council have confirmed that this will shorten the supply lines for military equipment to the front line and the line is expected to be extended to Crimea. Jonathan believes that the new railway line will reduce Russia's reliance on the Kerch Strait Bridge and vastly improve military and commercial logistics.
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Baltic Sea: Undersea Cable Damaged
🎦 17:43-18:03⏩
Jonathan reports that another undersea cable has been damaged in the Baltic Sea, this time the C1 Line 1 cable that runs between Finland and Germany. This particular cable also sustained damage back in November 2024. The Swedish Coast Guard, who were notified yesterday, are currently unsure when the damage occurred.
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Russia: Military Expansion - Threat to NATO?
🎦 18:04-18:22⏩
Jonathan reports that Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service has assessed that Russia is expanding its armed forces, not only to support the war in Ukraine, but also to prepare for a potential future war with NATO.
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China: Naval Exercises Near Australia and New Zealand
🎦 18:22-19:10⏩
Jonathan reports that China has conducted a no-notice live fire naval exercise in the international waters between Australia and New Zealand. Only civilian aircraft were given prior warning, forcing many to divert. Jonathan describes this as a show of force by China to intimidate Australia and New Zealand, testing their resolve. He sees this as further evidence that China is flexing it's muscles at a time when the US has announced cuts to it's Department of Defence budget, interpreting this as a sign that the US is capitulating to Russia and that this will only serve to embolden China further. Jonathan states that "Everyone is concerned with Ukraine and this is emboldening China because it appears that the US is capitulating to Russia, entirely capitulating to Russia, and China are only going to become more emboldened."
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USA: Freezes Arms Sales and Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 19:10-20:15⏩
Jonathan is furious as he reports that the US has frozen arms sales to Ukraine. This is in addition to the reported freezing of military aid (including aid already approved, appropriated and ready to be sent). Jonathan states that this equates to even more funding being available to the US government that is not being used. Initially it was claimed that the US Ambassador had denied these claims, but Ukrainian MP, Oleksiy Honcharenko has confirmed that this is correct. Jonathan is incredulous, stating that "American companies are not allowed to sell things to help Ukraine. So the US has just switched sides".
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Ukraine: Belgium Delays F-16 Transfer
🎦 20:15-20:56⏩
Jonathan questions if there is a link between the reported freezing of US arms sales and the news that the transfer of 30 Belgian F-16 fighter jets has been delayed until the end of 2025. This is due to delays in the delivery of F-35s from the US to Belgium. He suspects that the US is making it difficult for Ukraine to acquire the equipment that it needs, putting pressure on them.
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Ukraine: US Demands
🎦 20:56-22:30⏩
Jonathan speculates on the motivations behind the recent actions taken by the US government. Citing Oleksiy Honcharenko again, he reports that in return for an "improved deal" the US wants to lay claim to Ukrainian infrastructure, it's gas transportation system and nuclear power plants. This comes after the US realised that Ukraine does not have significant reserves of rare earth metals and minerals. Jonathan believes that Zelensky only revealed this during negotiations, and that the US has resorted to extortion, putting pressure on Ukraine. He describes this behaviour by the US as egregious. In contrast, President Macron has stated that "Russia is already aggressive towards the whole of Europe", pointing to the deployment of North Korean troops on European soil and cyber attacks targeting the west. Jonathan interprets Macron's statement as showing that he understands the situation, acknowledging that Europe appears to be taking a strong stance against Russia and is aware of the threat. He contrasts this with the US who appear to have now switched sides.
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Ukraine: Zelensky's Approval Rating
🎦 22:30-24:37⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky's approval rating has increased to 63%, based on the findings of a recent opinion poll. This is in stark contrast to Donald Trump's claims that Zelensky only had 4% support. Jonathan goes on to highlight another poll that reveals that 41% of Americans believe that Trump is a dictator (compared to 35% who believe Zelensky is a dictator). Jonathan finds it amusing that the American people are now questioning Trump's claims.
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USA: Media Coverage of the War
🎦 24:37-25:44⏩
Jonathan praises the New York Post (a tabloid newspaper that generally supports Trump) for it's coverage of the war in Ukraine. The front page, written by Douglas Murray (described by Jonathan as "a gateway drug to the alt-right"), features both the US and Ukrainian flags and the headline "This is a dictator" (referring to Putin). Jonathan views this as a positive step, as it is important to counter the disinformation being spread by right wing media outlets, such as Fox News, Newsmax and OAN that have large MAGA republican audiences. Jonathan goes on to say that US allies are looking at ways to prevent top secret information being leaked if Trump is re-elected, citing a recent Politico article. Jonathan is dismayed that the US has lost the trust of it's allies after switching sides and supporting Russia.
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Wrap Up
🎦 25:44-31:05⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that the ATP Geopolitics website (ATP Distilled) is now live. The website was created by Benny Epi and uses Artificial Intelligence to summarise each video, create chapters and bullet point summaries - perfect for those who prefer to read the content or are short of time. He's particularly impressed with the way that the AI has managed to convey the humour in his videos, citing a video he posted yesterday in which Congressman Robert Garcia calls Elon Musk a "dick" live on CNN, resulting in the news channel being forced to address it. He views this as a success - that AI is now able to communicate humour and levity, stating that "it is an incredible reflection of exactly what that was at that time". He encourages viewers to check out the website. Jonathan reminds viewers about the fundraiser for Jigaspaw and encourages his viewers to donate what they can. To ensure that the money is allocated correctly viewers must type "ATP for Triad" in the comments section when donating. Jonathan understands that people may be suffering from war weariness/donor fatigue but stresses the importance of continuing to support Ukraine, and announces that Irina from Jigaspaw will be joining him in an upcoming video.
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