Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News - Coup Update
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"I think this is the beginning of the end for the Russians in the war against Ukraine. I don't think they can come back from this."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update focused mainly on the developing situation with Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, who appears to have launched a rebellion or coup attempt against the Russian military leadership. Information is still unclear but this is a major development.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Wagner rebellion/coup attempt
- Prigozhin claims Russian military attacked Wagner base in Ukraine, vows revenge
- Wagner forces have taken control of key military sites in Rostov-on-Don, are moving towards Moscow via Voronezh
- Reports Wagner shot down 2 Russian Mi-8 electronic warfare helicopters, 1 Mi-35 attack helicopter and a Russian MOD plane
- Prigozhin's objectives unclear but this looks increasingly like a coup attempt, not just a dispute with military leadership
Russian response and support for Wagner
- Putin gave speech calling the rebellion a "deadly threat" and "treason", vowing punishment for those involved
- In response, Wagner said "Putin made the wrong choice" and "soon we will have a new president"
- Some Russian units/personnel surrendering to Wagner or refusing to fight them
- Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has clashed with Prigozhin before, vowed to help crush the rebellion
- But in many areas security forces seem to be siding with Wagner or standing down
Potential impact on war in Ukraine
Jonathan believes this could be the "beginning of the end" for Russia in the Ukraine war. Even in a best case scenario where the Kremlin prevails, Russia would lose Wagner as a key military asset and still have major discord in the armed forces. If Prigozhin succeeds, it would cause chaos. Either way, this turmoil makes it very difficult for Russia to withstand a Ukrainian counteroffensive. It's a major opportunity for Ukraine in the short-term, though a Prigozhin victory could be bad in the long-run.
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Other news
- Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses remain high, especially 30 artillery systems
- Russia launched cruise missile attack overnight, 10 of 51 missiles got through Ukrainian air defenses
- UK MOD reports Russia using trained dolphins to help secure Sevastopol naval base in Crimea
- Germany to send 20 more Marder IFVs to Ukraine this summer
- Speculation about Putin using body doubles based on timing of his appearances yesterday
Wrap up
The Prigozhin rebellion is dominating the news and information space, making it hard to get a clear picture of what's happening at the front lines. Jonathan will try to provide a dedicated frontline update next, after sifting through all the incoming information. He thanks viewers for their support.
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