Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, What Now? Strategic Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"Wouldn't it be great, though, if they had five times the amount of HIMARS or guided multiple launch rocket systems and five times the amount of rockets and were just absolutely littering the Russian occupied territories and smashing military targets and then with the longer range missiles and drones really complementing that..."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:43⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Frontline Update, expressing concern over the situation for Ukrainian forces. He thanks JR for the detailed mapping. The update will be followed by an analysis of a conversation between Bill Kristol and William Kagan of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Jonathan encourages viewers to familiarize themselves with the map legend and notes that the situation on the frontlines is fluid.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Troop Buildup & Frontline Overview
🎦 00:43-02:26⏩
Jonathan highlights a Ukrainian military observer’s report indicating the deployment of at least 50,000 Russian personnel to the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblast regions. While not an overwhelming number, their strategic positioning raises concerns about potential offensives or diversionary tactics. Jonathan notes increased Russian ground attacks along the northeastern front line, particularly in areas like Kreminna, Vremivka, and Robotyne, signifying a resurgence in activity after a period of relative stability.
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Kupiansk-Svatove - Dvorichna Frontline
🎦 02:26-03:35⏩
Jonathan examines the northern section of the frontline, focusing on activity north of Tavolzhenka near Kupiansk-Synkivka, and Dvorichna. The presence of the Oskil River, featuring a floodplain and hilly terrain to the west, presents a natural obstacle to Russian advancement. Jonathan discusses a discrepancy between maps, noting that while some indicate Russian control up to the river, this is likely a recent adjustment based on new evidence rather than a significant shift in control.
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Kreminna Frontline
🎦 03:35-04:05⏩
Jonathan shifts attention southwards to the Kreminna frontline, noting a Ukrainian counteroffensive east of Yampolivka. He confirms reports from various map sources that indicate Ukrainian forces successfully pushed back Russian forces in the area, west of Kreminna, presenting a positive development for Ukraine.
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Chasiv Yar Frontline
🎦 04:05-06:04⏩
Jonathan moves further south to Chasiv Yar, analyzing Russian gains in the forest area near the canal. He points out the strategic significance of elevated positions like Mount Baba north of Ivanivska, which, while challenging to capture, provides Russian forces with a tactical advantage in controlling the southern area and potentially encircling the canal microdistrict. Jonathan acknowledges Russian claims of Ukrainian withdrawal from Klishchivka but emphasizes the lack of confirmation from reliable sources like the ISW, advising caution in accepting such claims. He further details Russian progress in capturing Mount Baba and clashes within the canal microdistrict. Jonathan questions the reliability of previous claims made by certain map sources regarding Russian control of the canal microdistrict, suggesting they may have been premature and based on overzealous interpretations of Russian advances.
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Chasiv Yar & Ocheretyne Analysis
🎦 06:04-08:38⏩
Drawing on analysis from Tatarigami_UA and Frontline Insight, Jonathan delves deeper into the tactical situation in Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne. He reports on Russian attempts to establish a bridgehead across the canal at Chasiv Yar, acknowledging the potential threat this poses to Ukrainian defenses. Jonathan emphasizes the significance of culverts and bridges in the area, as these provide potential crossing points for mechanized equipment, potentially undermining the canal’s defensive advantage for Ukraine. He stresses the importance of targeting these culverts to hinder Russian advances. Jonathan highlights the strategic importance of the road leading to Kostyantynivka and the potential consequences should Russian forces successfully capture the southern part of Chasiv Yar.
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Avdiivka Frontline & Ukrainian Defensive Efforts
🎦 08:38-10:48⏩
Jonathan analyzes the situation south of Chasiv Yar around Avdiivka and Ocheretyne. He notes significant Russian gains, particularly towards Vozdvizhenka, indicating an attempt to cut off a crucial supply route between Kostyantynivka and Prokrovsk. He shares an image depicting Ukrainian fortifications in the area, speculating that Russian forces may have reached these main defensive lines, which could indicate a planned point of resistance by Ukrainian forces. Despite the challenging situation, Jonathan acknowledges the resilience of Ukrainian soldiers who, often at their own initiative, have been sourcing materials and equipment to bolster defenses and train new recruits, highlighting the resourcefulness and determination of individual units in the face of adversity.
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Avdiivka - Ocheretyne - Novokalynove Frontline
🎦 10:48-12:06⏩
Jonathan continues his analysis, emphasizing the threat posed by potential Russian control of Ocheretyne, which could open up additional routes for them to advance north towards Kostyantynivka. He examines recent developments in the area, noting that Russian forces are steadily closing the gap between Novokalynove and Ocheretyne. He also observes the expansion of Russian control around Ocheretyne, acknowledging the challenging situation for Ukrainian forces in this sector.
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Novoselivske - Novobakhmutivka Frontline
🎦 12:06-16:53⏩
Jonathan reviews the frontline south of Avdiivka, highlighting Russian gains near Pervomaiske and Netailove. He contrasts these developments with Ukrainian gains around Novoselivske, suggesting a possible successful counter-attack by Ukrainian forces in that area. He expresses uncertainty regarding the accuracy of certain map sources in depicting the situation, emphasizing the importance of relying on verified information. Jonathan provides commentary on the intensity of the fighting, drawing attention to Russian use of guided glide bombs (KABs) and the impact these are having on Ukrainian defenses. He highlights the importance of Western military aid, particularly artillery, in bolstering Ukrainian resistance. He describes the overall situation as fluid and complex but acknowledges the effectiveness of local initiatives and tactical adaptations by Ukrainian forces.
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Novomykhailivka - Krasnohorivka Frontline
🎦 16:53-18:10⏩
Jonathan observes the situation around Novomykhailivka and Krasnohorivka. He mentions Russian advances towards Kostyantynivka, particularly focusing on the Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar road southwest of Novomykhailivka, where clashes are ongoing on the outskirts of Paraskoviivka. While some sources claim Paraskoviivka has fallen, Jonathan notes the lack of visual confirmation and remains cautious about those claims. He speculates that the pause in the Russian advance after taking Novomykhailivka might be temporary, expecting them to resume their push towards Kostyantynivka and target Paraskoviivka in the near future.
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Velyka Novosilka - Vuhledar Frontline
🎦 18:10-26:47⏩
Jonathan shifts focus south to Velyka Novosilka, noting significant Russian gains around Urozhaine, with Deep State Maps and Suriat Maps indicating substantial territorial control for Russian forces. He quotes pro-Russian sources confirming these advances, emphasizing the strategic importance of Urozhaine due to its elevated position, which could facilitate further Russian advances towards Staromlynivka. He analyzes the terrain, noting the lower-lying areas near the river and the potential challenges this poses for both sides. Jonathan examines Suriat Maps' assessment, confirming Russian advances on the southern outskirts of Urozhaine, further underscoring the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
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Robotyne Frontline and ATACMS Discussion
🎦 26:47-29:06⏩
Jonathan observes the lack of changes in Robotyne after previous Russian gains. He questions the strategic use of long-range missiles like ATACMS, pointing to their use in striking a Russian training ground in Luhansk, potentially inflicting significant casualties. He ponders whether such weapons could be more effectively deployed against frontline targets to disrupt Russian advances. Jonathan shows an image of a primary school in Ocheretyne before its destruction, a stark reminder of the war's impact on civilian infrastructure.
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Analysis of Russian & Ukrainian Offensives
🎦 29:06-42:30⏩
Jonathan delves into an in-depth analysis of the conversation between William Kagan and Bill Kristol, summarizing their key points:
- Expected Developments: Jonathan and the analysts anticipate that Ukrainian forces will stabilize the frontlines within the next few weeks, halting the current Russian offensive. However, they also predict further, more significant Russian offensives starting in mid to late May or June, lasting throughout the summer.
- Potential Threats: Concerns are raised about a potential Russian drive towards Kharkiv city, although considered unlikely due to the city's size and Ukrainian defenses.
- Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The likelihood of a Ukrainian counteroffensive is discussed. The analysts believe it's unlikely to occur before late fall 2023 or spring 2024 at the earliest due to the need for Ukrainian forces to reconstitute, receive military aid, and address manpower challenges.
- Impact of Western Aid: The arrival of the Western aid package is viewed as crucial in bolstering Ukrainian defenses, particularly air defense systems like Patriot interceptors to counter Russian missile attacks.
- Strategic Bombing Campaign: Jonathan and the analysts condemn the ongoing Russian strategic bombing campaign targeting civilian infrastructure, emphasizing its devastating impact, particularly on energy infrastructure and supply lines.
Jonathan's Insights and Predictions
🎦 42:30-43:27⏩
Jonathan offers his perspective, advocating for a sustained long-term strategy focusing on attriting Russian forces through extensive use of HIMARS, guided artillery, drones, and other long-range weaponry. He believes this approach minimizes Ukrainian casualties while maximizing pressure on Russian capabilities, potentially creating favorable conditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the future.
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Wrap Up
🎦 43:27-43:43⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers for watching the extended analysis and encouraging engagement through likes, subscriptions, and comments. He signs off, emphasizing the fluid nature of the conflict and his commitment to providing further updates.
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