Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
🤖
This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"Now barrels are not arriving since the technology for their mass production is almost lost."
Hello Team!
- Jonathan is having some issues with YouTube and copyright claims, which may impact his video schedule. He has family commitments today but will try to get a second news piece out later.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian general staff figures show an uptick in Russian losses to 470, suggesting increased activity on the front lines, particularly around Lyman.
- Notable losses include:
- 4 tanks
- 12 armored personnel vehicles
- 38 artillery systems (a huge loss)
- 2 MLRS
- 1 anti-aircraft system
- 15 drones
- Visual confirmation from Oryx shows near parity in losses between Russia and Ukraine, as expected given Ukraine's offensive. Andrew Perpetua's list may provide a better 24-hour snapshot.
Artillery Barrel Shortages
- A significant Russian source claims artillery barrel production is down 80% and mass production technology is "almost lost".
- Barrels are being removed from storage to replace those that have burst, but even these have less than 50% service life remaining.
- This shortage was not forecasted by Russian leadership as the war was expected to last only 3-15 days. Poor intel and planning are to blame.
Other News
- A Russian Muron-M surveillance system was destroyed by a loitering munition.
- Lt. Col. Eric Magasumov, a "Hero of Russia", has been detained on suspicion of murdering an 18-year-old girl while drunk.
- The Su-35 shot down near Tokmak by friendly fire is a costly mistake for Russia in terms of trained pilots.
- 30 out of 40 drones were shot down in attacks over Odesa, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia regions. While a 75% interception rate is an improvement, 10 drones still got through.
- The Bryansk region was hit again, with a substation or power plant targeted in an apparent tit-for-tat strike by Ukraine.
- A concert in Moscow marking the annexation anniversary is not being widely broadcast, unlike last year, and Putin won't attend, possibly indicating waning enthusiasm.
- Two Ukrainian paratroopers were rescued from Russian-controlled territory after hiding for 1.5 years with help from locals. Such stories could be Hollywood material.
Wrap up
- Jonathan expresses gratitude for the audience's support during YouTube difficulties.
- He hopes to livestream with Operator Starsky tomorrow night, if timings work out. If not, he may chat with Matt instead.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No major queries. The transcript was clear, though some of the artillery barrel production figures were a bit ambiguous (e.g. down 80% vs. at 20% capacity).
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Read through the transcript and identify the main topics discussed
Summarize each topic, providing enough context and detail
Use bullet points or numbered lists to organize the summary
Bold or italicize key points for emphasis
Include any sources or credits mentioned by Jonathan
Convey Jonathan's insights, analysis, and opinions where relevant
Mention any jokes, rants or tangents that provide color
Check spelling and grammar, using British English
Review summary to ensure all key points are covered