Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The extreme pride Russians are taking destroying a human aid truck that was delivering clean water to old women is honestly both sickening and completely expected."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:32⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first part of his daily Ukraine War update. He explains that this video is a little later than usual as it's a UK bank holiday and he has treated himself to a lie in.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian losses for 05/05/2024
🎦 00:32-01:34⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day (05/05/2024) with the usual caveats that they can be found in the video description.
- Personnel: 1040+ (Note: This figure has returned to over 1000 having dipped below yesterday. This has been a heavy week for Russian personnel losses with 7 consecutive days of 1000+ losses).
- Tanks: 5
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 34 (uptick from previous reports)
- Artillery Systems: 38 (uptick from previous reports)
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 1
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 59
- Special Equipment: 6
Jonathan notes that these figures are high across a number of categories indicating a bad day for the Russians on 05/05/2024.
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Analysis: Comparing Oryx and Ukrainian General Staff figures and Social Media reports
🎦 01:34-09:57⏩
Jonathan addresses comments from viewers about discrepancies between figures published by the Ukrainian General Staff, Oryx (and other open source intelligence - OSINT such as social media). He refers to the figures published for 04/05/2024 where Ukrainian losses were higher than Russian losses (a rarity) There is a lot of discussion about what the various figures actually represent given the different ways that data is gathered and reported:
- Ukrainian General Staff figures: Represent losses from the day before, however Jonathan questions whether there could be a reporting lag from units on the ground which could lead to even more discrepancies in the figures.
- Social Media/OSINT reports: Jonathan reminds viewers that there is often a significant lag between military action occurring and footage/evidence making it to social media. He refers to comments made by Constantine (who fundraises for drones) who has spoken to a drone operator who had amassed footage of dozens of confirmed hits on Russian equipment but had not uploaded any to social media. This reinforces Jonathan's point that we are unlikely to see a true representation/one-to-one correlation of equipment losses/damage from social media. There are a number of other reasons why equipment losses reported in OSINT may not marry up with other sources:
- Montages: Confirmed hits are often published in montages which may cover events that have occurred over a number of days, weeks or even months.
- Delays in uploading footage: There can be significant delays in footage being uploaded, sometimes many months after the event.
- Secrecy/lack of motivation to upload: Not all drone operators upload their footage for various reasons including secrecy and lack of time.
- Jonathan then talks about the invaluable work of Andrew Perpetua and his team who aggregate visual data from various sources including Telegram, Twitter, Youtube as well as first person drone footage, recon drone footage, spotter drone footage, satellite imagery. Having teams analysing data in this way means that comparisons can be made across sources to build up a more accurate picture of equipment losses. Jonathan concludes that we should not compare daily figures in isolation but should look at trends over time, for example by comparing the ratios of losses on a daily or weekly basis. He cites the example of heavy equipment and personnel losses for Russia earlier this week indicating that something significant was happening on the front lines. This was corroborated by events on the ground in places such as Avdiivka, Ocheretyne, Krasnohorivka, Chasiv Yar and Novomykhailivka. Similarly, when 140 pieces of Russian equipment were destroyed in a video published by Magiar, although reported in a single day, it is unlikely that these losses all occurred on the same day, and should be viewed as part of a longer term trend. Jonathan reiterates that viewers should look at daily figures published by both the Ukrainian General Staff and Oryx alongside other OSINT sources to build up a picture of what is happening on the ground and be wary about drawing conclusions from any single data source. Jonathan then gives a shout out to "Del" who does the data analysis for Andrew Perpetua and refers to a comment by Del that the Ukrainian General Staff have been making manual adjustments to figures published for 05/05/2024. Del has said that the changes haven't had a significant impact on the bigger picture but that he may need to readjust figures published for 06/05/2024 after analysing data for 07/05/2024. Jonathan acknowledges that he still needs to do his deep dive/extra video with Del reviewing the data from the Ukrainian General Staff.
Analysis: Social Media Reports of Ukrainian Losses on 05/05/2024
🎦 09:57-11:24⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss Ukrainian losses for 05/05/2024 from social media reports which appear to be high. He notes the following losses:
- 1 Boat
- A number of howitzers
- 5 tanks (including an Abrams and a Leopard A5) - Jonathan notes that the Leopard A5 was taken out by shelling/a Lancet strike but that Andrew Perpetua has listed it as damaged as confirmation is needed that it was destroyed. The M1 Abrams appears to have suffered an engine fire and has been destroyed. Jonathan remarks that more and more Western tanks are being destroyed as the war progresses.
- 1 Abandoned Bradley
- 1 YPR-765 (Dutch version fo the M113 APC)
- A number of BRDM, BTR and MTLB armoured personnel carriers.
- 1 MRAP Max Pro 1
- Quite a lot of civilian vehicles including vans and pickup trucks.
Jonathan notes that a high proportion of the Ukrainian losses were civilian type vehicles.
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Analysis: Social Media Reports of Russian Losses on 05/05/2024
🎦 11:24-13:47⏩
Jonathan reviews social media reports of Russian equipment losses for 05/05/2024 noting:
- 1 Boat (the one targeted with a drone-laid mine that Jonathan showed footage of in yesterday's video)
- 1 BM-21 Grad (Jonathan explains that he has seen footage of a number of Grad MLRS being destroyed recently).
- 1 Tracked Garden Shed (one of the Russian "turtle tanks")
- A few tanks
- A couple of infantry fighting vehicles
- A couple of armoured personnel carriers
- Some trucks
- Quite a few civilian vehicles
Jonathan notes that although the Russians lost a lot of vehicles, most appear to have been destroyed or abandoned which is a good sign for the Ukrainians. He notes a captured Russian T-64 tank which fell into a hole. Jonathan concludes that overall this was a bad day for the Ukrainians based on the high number of vehicles and equipment lost.
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Ukraine: Russian Airstrikes and Shelling 05/05/2024
🎦 13:48-14:47⏩
Jonathan refers to a report by Euromaidan Press summarising military action that took place on 05/05/2024:
- Ukraine targeted 3 Russian radar stations and 2 air defence systems.
- Russian forces carried out 2 missile strikes, 120 aviation strikes and 89 artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions and civilian areas.
Jonathan notes that these figures for Russian airstrikes highlight the significant air advantage that Russia still holds. He observes that although a Russian Su-25 was shot down over the weekend, this has not stopped Russia from pounding the front line with aviation bombs.
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Russia: Improvised Military Vehicles - Desperation or Clever Adaptation?
🎦 14:48-23:41⏩
Jonathan shows footage of Russian military vehicles that have been adapted from civilian vehicles including dune buggies, golf carts, motorbikes, quads with various weaponry mounted on them. He questions whether this is a sign of desperation by the Russians given that they are increasingly unable to replace their losses in armoured vehicles and other military equipment or whether these vehicles have their place and are a clever adaptation that can be very effective. Jonathan refers to a Russian commentator who claims that Russia are not replacing their losses in armoured vehicles which is forcing them to adopt a Mad Max approach to warfare. He predicts that Russian troops will be forced to attack on foot where in the past they would have used Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) and Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs). Jonathan then presents a number of examples of adapted Russian "Turtle Tanks" which are essentially tanks that have been adapted to resemble garden sheds, many with mine rollers on the front. He questions whether this is an effective use of equipment and resources as the turret can no longer turn on the tank. He speculates that they are being used as glorified APCs to transport troops to the front line. Jonathan concludes that it's not clear whether these vehicles should be viewed as a sign of desperation or clever adaptation but concedes that if the approach is effective then it should be viewed as a clever adaptation rather than desperation.
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Russia: Deliberate Targeting of Humanitarian Aid Convoy
🎦 23:41-25:06⏩
Jonathan expresses his disgust at a report from Andrew Perpetua about a Russian attack on a humanitarian aid convoy delivering water to elderly women. Jonathan is shocked by the celebratory comments on Telegram from pro-Russian accounts after footage of the destroyed truck was published.
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Ukraine: Partisan Activity in Occupied Zaporizhzhia
🎦 25:07-25:33⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian military intelligence are claiming that a car bomb attack this morning in the occupied city of Berdiansk killed Yevgeny Ananevsky, a man they say was responsible for running a torture facility at Berdiansk Correctional Colony No. 77.
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Chechnya: Adam Kadyrov's Car Torched
🎦 25:33-26:34⏩
In what appears to be further evidence of partisan activity, Jonathan reports that Ramzan Kadyrov's 16 year old son, Adam Kadyrov, has had his car torched in Grozny. Jonathan reminds viewers that Adam Kadyrov was recently awarded the "Hero of Chechnya" award and put in charge of the Chechen Special Forces despite being only 16 years old. He was given this award shortly after footage emerged of him beating a prisoner.
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Ukraine: Iranian Shahed Drone Attacks Overnight
🎦 26:34-27:03⏩
Jonathan reports that 13 Iranian Shahed drones were fired at Ukraine overnight (05/05-06/05/2024), of which 12 were shot down. Jonathan states that he has no further information about the attacks from other sources.
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Ukraine: Explosions reported in Mariupol
🎦 27:04-27:17⏩
Jonathan reports that explosions are currently being reported in Mariupol, noting that the Ukrainians are increasingly attacking during the day.
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Crimea: Ukrainian Magura V5 USV Drone Attack
🎦 27:17-29:54⏩
Jonathan shows footage of what appears to be a Ukrainian Magura V5 Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) drone being shot at in the Black Sea. He speculates that the drone was driving around the port looking for a target and that when it was unable to find a target of significance it attacked a Russian Rigid Inflatable Boat (RIB) attack craft. Jonathan questions the logic of this, given the likely cost of the drone compared to the RIB and wonders if this was because the drone was unable to return to base and had to attack a target. Jonathan encourages viewers to share their thoughts.
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Crimea: Rebar reports on Ukrainian USV Activity
🎦 29:55-31:16⏩
Jonathan reports that the pro-Russian Telegram channel "Rebar" published a report about the recent Ukrainian USV activity.
- Chornomorsk: Rebar claims that 4 Ukrainian USVs attacked a Russian Black Sea Fleet and FSB Border Guard base at around 04:00-05:00⏩
but were destroyed before they were able to penetrate the defences. - Cape Tarkhankut: Rebar also claims that a group of USVs were spotted off Cape Tarkhankut but turned around and left the area after their presence was detected.
Jonathan notes that whilst Rebar's account could be partially true (especially given the footage of the USV attack on the RIB), they have a vested interest in downplaying the significance of Ukrainian attacks and promoting the effectiveness of Russian defences. He speculates that there were likely more than one drone involved in the attacks given the distances involved and that they play an important role in testing Russian defences.
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Crimea: Increased Ukrainian USV Activity
🎦 31:17-32:05⏩
Jonathan refers to reports of increased Ukrainian USV activity around Crimea including 5-6 drones that appeared near the Kerch Strait Bridge which had to be closed for a number of hours. There have also been reports of drone activity around the bridge, Tarkhankut and Chornomorsk. The attack on the bridge involved over 10 drones.
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Crimea: British RC-135 Reconnaissance Aircraft Operating Near Sevastopol
🎦 32:05-33:06⏩
Jonathan reports that prior to the USV attacks there were reports of a British RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft operating around 100km southwest of Sevastopol and speculates that this was part of the same operation. Given the increased USV activity and the upcoming Russian Victory Day celebrations on 09/05/2024, it is likely that the Ukrainians will be planning a large scale attack.
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Ukraine: USVs Equipped with R-60 and R-70 Air-to-Air Missiles
🎦 33:06-33:06⏩
Jonathan refers to a report from a Russian fighter bomber Telegram channel reporting that the Ukrainians have started equipping their USV drones with R-60 and R-70 air to air missiles. Whilst he reports that the system is not thought to be working effectively at the moment, there is speculation that this may be behind the two Russian helicopter crashes near Crimea in recent months.
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Ukraine: ATACMS Strike on Russian Iskander Missile Site 04/05/2024
🎦 33:06-37:23⏩
Jonathan reviews evidence presented by "Geoconfirmed" about a suspected Ukrainian ATACMS strike on a Russian Iskander missile site on 04/05/2024:
- Geoconfirmed have satellite imagery which confirms that over 10 Iskander launchers and other vehicles were present at a site a few days before the attack. Unfortunately they are unable to share the imagery due to copyright restrictions.
- Sentinel satellite imagery from 15/04/2024-05/05/2024 shows significant vehicle movement at the site.
- NASA FIRMS (Satellite Data for Wildfires) identified a number of fires at the site on 04/05/2024. Geoconfirmed highlight that the fires were significant and covered a large area - they would not have been caused by an ATACMS missile alone and indicate that something at the site caught fire.
- Sentinel Imagery from 05/05/2024 shows the aftermath of the fire.
- The Russians claim to have shot down 4-8 ATACMS missiles that night.
Jonathan concludes that, whilst further investigation is needed, the evidence strongly points to an ATACMS strike on the site which has damaged or destroyed a number of vehicles including Iskander missile launchers. Jonathan celebrates the valuable role played by OSINT in piecing together information from a variety of sources to provide much needed clarity on events such as this. Without OSINT we would only have the accounts from the Ukrainian and Russian Ministry of Defence to rely on.
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Russia: Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's Deputy Arrested, Speculation about Replacements
🎦 37:23-41:08⏩
Jonathan reports that following the arrest of Timur Ivanov (Sergei Shoigu's deputy and the second richest man in Russia) for corruption, Russian military correspondents are speculating that Alexei Dyumin may be lined up as Shoigu's replacement. Jonathan questions the motives behind Ivanov's arrest given that corruption is endemic in Russia and those in power will have plenty of dirt on each other. He speculates that Ivanov must represent some sort of threat to Putin for him to have been arrested. Jonathan then speculates that General Sergey Surovikin (who had overall command of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for a period of time) could be about to make a comeback replacing Gerasimov as Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia. Surovikin has a reputation for brutality and was behind the atrocities in Syria. He was sidelined after the Wagner mutiny in June 2023 after appearing to be supportive of Prigozhin. He has spent the last year in the political wilderness. Jonathan believes that, despite his brutality, Surovikin is a capable military leader who could be called upon to take control of the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
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Ukraine: Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal Calls on G7 and EU to Grant Ukraine NATO Membership
🎦 41:08-43:49⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called on the G7 and EU to invite Ukraine to join NATO. Shmyhal claims that Ukraine has implemented all the necessary reforms and that the Ukrainian army is now operating to NATO standards. He urges the West to support Ukraine in order to protect democratic values and the "civilised" world.
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Russia: Putin Orders "Tactical Nuclear Weapons Drill" in Response to "Provocative Statements" from the West
🎦 43:49-43:49⏩
Jonathan reports that Putin has ordered the Russian Defence Ministry to hold a "tactical nuclear weapons drill" in response to the West's "provocative statements and threats". It transpires that these provocative statements are in relation to comments from Western leaders that sending NATO troops to Ukraine is "not off the table". Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claims that these comments represent an "unprecedented escalation" with Russia. Jonathan believes that these threats are designed to deter the West from providing further military aid and support to Ukraine. He acknowledges that, whilst we shouldn't dismiss the very real threat that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons, this is just the latest in a long line of empty threats from Russia.
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Ukraine: FSB Agent Group Arrested
🎦 43:49-44:56⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) have arrested a group of FSB agents who were planning a series of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure over Easter, including attacks on energy facilities, logistics warehouses and military airfields. The perpetrators face life imprisonment. Jonathan remarks that this is not unusual and that similar arrests happen on an almost daily basis. The arrests highlight the challenges that Ukraine faces with pro-Russian collaborators.
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Ukraine: Russian Cultural Destruction - Art Stolen from Mariupol
🎦 44:57-46:26⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers of Russia's ongoing cultural destruction in Ukraine. He gives a shout out to the investigative journalism organisation "Tocny" who have published a report about the situation in Mariupol and also refers to a recent interview he did with Jonathan (a researcher who has been investigating the theft of art and cultural artefacts from Mariupol). Jonathan states that this is just a reminder of the war crimes that are being perpetrated by the Russians in Ukraine.
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Ukraine: Disinformation about French Troops
🎦 46:26-47:18⏩
Jonathan warns viewers to be wary of reports circulating on social media that France has deployed troops to Ukraine. This appears to have originated from an article in the Asia Times which is based on unreliable sources.
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Wrap Up
🎦 47:18-47:21⏩
Jonathan wraps up the first part of his daily Ukraine update.
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