Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Listen to what they're saying on a daily basis and then ask yourself is it worth doing uh some negotiations with these guys what do they really want they want a massive they want the world to be part of the russian empire"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:58⏩
Jonathan starts the video with an apology, explaining he had to re-record due to microphone issues. He shares that he has an important neurologist appointment later to review his multiple sclerosis MRI results, a significant day for him as it determines the progression of his condition. He remains hopeful as his previous stem cell therapy in Moscow in 2019 has so far stabilised his MS. Depending on the appointment outcome, his video output might be affected, as he had planned to be further ahead with uploads.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses for 20/03/2024
🎦 00:58-03:27⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures on Russian losses. He notes a downward trend in reported losses (personnel and equipment) compared to recent weeks, attributing this shift to the conclusion of the Russian presidential elections on March 17th. Jonathan believes the urgency to achieve battlefield successes for Putin to showcase during the elections has diminished. He observes fewer Russian attempts to capture significant territory, suggesting a potential culmination point in the conflict. The specific figures are 700 personnel, nine tanks, nine armoured vehicles, 16 artillery systems, seven vehicles and fuel tanks and three pieces of special equipment. He emphasises the impact of losing nine tanks is significant due to their limited numbers.
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Andrew Perpetua's Work and Appeal for Help
🎦 03:27-04:27⏩
Jonathan highlights the work of Andrew Perpetua, who compiles detailed statistics on the war. He mentions Perpetua's appeal for assistance during a recent live stream, emphasising the need for help with logging overnight news and analysing video footage for data on equipment losses. Jonathan encourages viewers who have spare time, particularly those working from home or with limitations like himself, to consider assisting Perpetua, highlighting the immense workload and valuable service he provides.
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Ukrainian Losses for 20/03/2024
🎦 04:27-04:49⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian equipment losses, suggesting a favourable loss ratio of approximately five to one (Russian to Ukrainian). He notes the loss of two boats (type unspecified), a BM-21 Grad multiple-launch rocket system, a couple of T-72 tanks, a heavily damaged and abandoned Bradley (a notable loss), and other minor equipment. He speculates that the boats might be smaller vessels operating on the Dnipro River, considering the lack of mention of more significant naval losses.
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Possible Russian Su-24 Downed Near Snake Island
🎦 04:49-06:17⏩
Jonathan shares a less substantiated report, urging viewers to treat it with caution. There are unconfirmed claims of a Russian Su-24 disappearing from radar near Snake Island while en route to Odessa, potentially indicating a shootdown. He acknowledges the limited information available and the uncertainty surrounding the incident, concluding that the truth might remain unknown.
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Ukrainian Island-Class Ship Damaged by Lancet Drone on the Bug River
🎦 06:18-08:25⏩
Jonathan reports on a confirmed incident involving a Ukrainian Island-class ship being damaged by a Russian Lancet drone. He shows footage of the attack, noting the drone detonating above the vessel. Jonathan speculates that this tactic aims to disable sensitive equipment on deck rather than sinking the ship outright. He highlights the significance of the location, Mykolaiv on the Southern Bug River, demonstrating the reach of Russian drones into Ukrainian territory and posing a challenge for Ukrainian forces. Jonathan expresses concern about the vulnerability of Ukrainian assets, even in seemingly secure areas.
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Possible Ukrainian Matka-Class Missile Boat Attacked
🎦 08:25-10:14⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of what appears to be a Ukrainian naval vessel, potentially a Matka-class missile boat, being targeted in an attack. He points out the difficulty in definitively identifying the vessel and the explosion occurring in the water beside it rather than directly hitting it. Despite the uncertainty, Jonathan concludes that the targeted ship is more likely Ukrainian than Russian, marking another potential setback for the Ukrainian Navy. He mentions this attack doesn't appear to be the same incident as the Island-class ship, highlighting the possibility of multiple maritime incidents. He notes this is different to the earlier incident and that Andrew Perpetua had geolocated the earlier incident to the Bug River area.
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Construction Site Fire in Russia
🎦 10:14-10:46⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to a fire at a construction site in Russia, showcasing footage of the incident. He remarks on the frequency of such fires in Russia, suggesting potential sabotage or negligence. He questions whether these incidents are becoming a financial drain, regardless of their cause, potentially impacting Russia's war effort.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Oil & Gas Facilities
🎦 10:46-12:59⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent decline in Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil and gas facilities. He notes the significant impact of these attacks, estimated to have reduced Russia's refining capacity by 11-17% or 400,000 - 900,000 barrels per day, according to sources like Bloomberg. He speculates on the reasons for this decline, suggesting potential links to the end of the Russian elections. Jonathan also highlights the dilemma these attacks pose for Russia in terms of resource allocation, particularly air defence systems. He emphasises that creating such dilemmas, rather than solvable problems, is strategically advantageous in warfare.
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Ukrainian Drone Attack on Engels Airbase
🎦 12:59-14:47⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian drone strike on Engels Airbase in Saratov, a site housing Russian strategic bombers responsible for launching missile attacks on Ukraine. He speculates that this attack could be part of a Ukrainian strategy to keep Russian forces guessing and force them to reposition their defences constantly. While the extent of the damage remains unclear, Jonathan believes the strike likely had some success, noting reports of secondary explosions potentially indicating successful hits on targets within the airbase.
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US Confirms Russian Use of North Korean Missiles
🎦 14:47-15:31⏩
Jonathan discusses the US officially acknowledging that Russia has used at least 10 North Korean missiles in Ukraine. While Ukrainian sources claimed the number to be closer to 50 since the war began, this confirmation from the US holds significance. Jonathan views it as a potential catalyst for action, hoping it will prompt a stronger response from both the US and South Korea regarding North Korea's involvement in the conflict.
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Exploding Russian Trawler in Kaliningrad: Speculation and Analysis
🎦 15:31-20:36⏩
Jonathan revisits the incident of the exploding Russian trawler in Kaliningrad, acknowledging a viewer's comment challenging his earlier speculation about its potential connection to electronic warfare. While admitting it's speculation, he presents a compelling argument by piecing together circumstantial evidence:
- The rarity of trawler explosions
- The unusually high number of crew members (seven)
- Its previous sinking and subsequent salvage
- The recent GPS jamming incidents in the Baltic Sea involving a UK RAF plane carrying Grant Shapps (UK Defence Secretary) and a US Reaper drone
- Russia's historical use of trawlers for espionage
He concludes that, while unconfirmed, the possibility of the trawler being involved in electronic warfare activities is plausible given these factors.
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Ukrainian Cyberattack on Russian Entities
🎦 20:36-21:21⏩
Jonathan reports on a large-scale cyberattack on Russian entities, both state and private, attributed to Ukrainian sources. The attack reportedly targeted organizations financially supporting the war effort. He lauds Ukraine's cyber offensive capabilities, especially in light of Russia's own aggressive cyber warfare tactics. He mentions French President Macron highlighting concerns over Russian cyberattacks targeting French hospitals as an example of Russia's tactics.
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Footage of Russian Election Fraud
🎦 21:21-23:15⏩
Jonathan presents video footage exposing potential election fraud during the Russian elections. The footage shows individuals discreetly stuffing ballot boxes while security personnel appear complicit. He contrasts this with the claims of transparent elections, highlighting the widespread evidence of irregularities, including the use of invisible ink and voter intimidation. He criticises Margarita Simonyan's praise for Putin's re-election, pointing out her eagerness for Russia to seize more Ukrainian territory as further evidence of Russia's intentions. He encourages viewers to pay attention to Russian state media and propaganda to understand the mindset and goals of the Russian leadership.
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Reappearance of Russian Radar-Reflecting Balloons
🎦 23:15-25:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the reappearance of Russian radar-reflecting balloons near the Ukrainian border. He explains that these balloons, previously observed in February 2023 near Kyiv, are designed to create false radar signatures, causing confusion and potentially wasting Ukrainian air defence resources. He notes that these balloons act as decoys, forcing Ukraine to expend valuable missiles on inexpensive targets.
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Wrap Up
🎦 25:11-25:18⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with his usual call to action, urging viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video. He mentions his intention to work on the second part of the update if time permits.
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