Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Are you freaking serious, Tucker Carlson? You terrible, terrible human."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update video: Ukraine War Update, the third part for 22/11/2024. This update focuses on geopolitical news and today's video will start with Russia and a look at how Saudi Arabia could affect the Russian economy.
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Russia - Saudi Arabia and Oil Prices
🎦 00:29-08:13⏩
Jonathan explains how Saudi Arabia could flood the global oil market to regain control of oil prices.
- OPEC and OPEC+, of which Russia is a member, have been restricting oil supply to increase prices.
- In response, the US flooded the market with its strategic reserves to combat rising oil prices and keep inflation under control. This had a significant impact on Russia’s oil revenues as they were hit with a ‘double whammy’ of lower production and lower prices per barrel.
- Saudi Arabia, as a leading member of OPEC, has been pushing for production cuts to keep the oil price above $100 a barrel but this strategy has not been successful.
- Sources suggest that Saudi Arabia is planning to flood the market with oil which would impact OPEC members that haven't cooperated in reducing oil flows (including Russia).
- With Russia already selling its oil at a discount and with higher production costs, a low oil price could impact its ability to finance the war in Ukraine.
- Russia needs to maximise profits to offset the costs of the war in Ukraine.
- The West has focused on curbing Russian oil profits, for example, the G7 imposed a $60 price cap on Russian crude.
- Russia has been able to get around these sanctions by using unregistered tankers, but Saudi Arabia flooding the market would be more difficult to overcome.
- This could lead to a price war. A similar event happened in 2020. Russia does not have the foreign currency reserves to cope with this type of price war.
- Jonathan feels this would be good news for Ukraine.
Russia - Public Support for the War is Falling
🎦 08:13-09:44⏩
- Recent surveys in Russia show that public support for the war is falling.
- 52% of Russians now support a negotiated settlement compared to 36% who want the war to continue.
- Jonathan cautions against drawing conclusions from surveys that claim Ukrainians want a quick end to the war. He argues that this should be viewed within the context of potential frustration with the US regarding military aid and the results of the election. Other Ukrainian surveys have not shown this.
Russia - A Reminder
🎦 09:44-11:56⏩
In response to a Twitter comment asking what Russia has done, Jonathan provides a list of Russia’s actions, arguing that it's important to remind ourselves what they have done:
- Invaded Georgia in 2008
- Invaded Ukraine in 2014 and annexed Crimea
- Shot down MH17
- Poisoned people on British soil
- Supported the Assad Regime in Syria
- Interfered in US, UK and EU elections
- Carried out cyber attacks e.g. against Estonia in 2007 and the NotPetya attack in 2017
- Threatened the world with Nuclear Armageddon
- Used Chemical weapons
- Wagner Group has been active in Syria, Africa and Ukraine
- Use energy production to blackmail countries
- Committed war crimes in Ukraine including the killing of POWs.
Czech Republic - Foreign Minister visits Kyiv
🎦 11:56-12:11⏩
Czech Foreign Minister, Jan Lipavsky, is visiting Kyiv and has announced that Czech Republic will continue to supply ammunition to Ukraine.
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Germany - Political Landscape
🎦 12:11-14:10⏩
- German Defence minister, Boris Pistorius, who is far more popular than Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has decided not to run for leadership of the SPD.
- Thomas Tyner has described this as an ‘epic election defeat’ for the SPD as they are likely to suffer heavy losses in the next election due to the unpopularity of Olaf Scholz.
- Jonathan notes that Olaf Scholz is stuck between the hard left and hard right trying to appeal to voters across the spectrum. Jonathan feels that Scholz should stay true to his convictions rather than trying to please everyone.
- It is likely the CDU (centre right) will form a coalition with the Greens after the next election, however, they may choose to form a coalition with the SPD.
- From a Ukrainian perspective, a change in leadership would be beneficial if the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, remains committed to supporting Ukraine. Merz will be under pressure from the right wing, pro-Putin AfD party, but should stay strong on Ukraine.
Germany - Trump, Ukraine and the Future of Europe
🎦 14:10-17:51⏩
- Germany faces a ‘pivotal moment’ following Trump’s election victory. They now need to reassess their reliance on the US for security with regard to both Ukraine and Europe.
- Trump's election has put Germany in a difficult position, and Ukrainians are concerned about what this means for them. They want Germany to provide them with more military support, such as Taurus missiles, but Germany is hesitant and still seems to be waiting for the US to take the lead.
- The outcome of the February elections in Germany will be important. The Conservatives, who are currently ahead in the polls, have indicated they would be more supportive of Ukraine. They have pledged to send more military aid to Ukraine if Russia continues to attack civilians. But, if the SPD ends up as a junior partner in a coalition government with the Conservatives, their pacifist views could potentially weaken Germany’s response.
- Even within the SPD, there are differing views on the war in Ukraine. Pistorius has acknowledged that Germany must be ‘ready for war’, which suggests a potential shift in the party's stance. However, Scholz's decision to call Putin, which was criticised by Zelensky, highlights the uncertainty surrounding Germany's position.
- Trump’s return has exposed Germany's vulnerabilities and its reliance on the US for leadership. The recent collapse of the German coalition government is both a symptom of, and a consequence of, these issues.
- Germany is facing economic, political, and geopolitical problems all at the same time. Germany has a choice: step up and become a leader in supporting Ukraine, or stay on the sidelines, paralysed by internal conflicts and global instability.
- The February elections are vital to see which path Germany chooses to take. A Conservative-led government might breathe new life into the support for Ukraine, but the possibility of the SPD still having influence is a worry for Europe.
- This is a chance for Germany to step up and take charge. They need to stop being hesitant and take decisive action. It's time for Germany to carve out its place in history, not as a hesitant bystander but as a powerful force creating a new future for Ukraine and Europe.
- The Second World War may be a distant memory, but it still shapes how we view Europe.
- Germany has an opportunity to lead Europe in a new direction against a backdrop of war in Europe.
- The last time Germany was involved in a war it was a very different situation. Germany may be instrumental in assisting Ukraine and the UK has left the EU.
- France is uncertain. Macron makes strong statements, but is in a weak position politically.
- The next couple of months will be interesting for Germany.
Germany - Public Support for Ukraine Remains High
🎦 17:51-19:23⏩
- Jonathan refutes claims that European support for Ukraine is waning. In fact, Trump’s election and Russia’s continued war crimes are likely to increase support for Ukraine.
- Philip O’Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews, has shared poll data on support for Ukraine in Germany.
- According to the latest polls:
- 70% of Germans support ongoing arms deliveries to Ukraine.
- 43% think military support for Ukraine should increase.
- 45% of Germans favour Ukraine ceding territory to Russia in exchange for peace. This is roughly the same percentage as those who think Ukraine should keep fighting. It is important to note that the wording of this poll question has changed since the last time it was asked.
- 55% of Germans approve of Ukraine being allowed to use its full arsenal of US-supplied weapons, while 37% disapprove. The wording of this question is misleading - a more accurate question would have been to ask Germans how they felt about the use of such weapons being authorised for use on Russian territory.
- 71% of Germans surveyed believe Trump will not be able to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, compared to only 24% who believe he can. Those in the minority were mostly from pro-Putin parties.
Poland - Farmers to Protest against EU-Mercosur Trade Deal
🎦 19:23-19:40⏩
Polish farmers are planning a partial blockade of the Medyka-Szeginie border crossing on 23 November 2024. They will allow cars and buses through but will stop lorries. This protest is in opposition to the trade deal between the EU and Mercosur.
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Poland - Prime Minister warns of Escalation
🎦 19:40-20:33⏩
- Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has warned that the war in Ukraine is at a ‘decisive stage’ and that there is a risk of the conflict escalating into a global war.
- Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), has praised Poland’s commitment to becoming a significant security provider and for securing US commitment to its defence.
- Jonathan reiterates that both Germany and Poland will be important in influencing the future direction of Europe, particularly with regard to the US.
UK - British Army “Ready to Fight Tonight”
🎦 20:33-20:59⏩
- Following threats from Russia, a high-ranking UK military leader has said that the British Army would be ‘ready to fight tonight’.
- Jonathan is somewhat sceptical of this claim, questioning whether the UK has the capacity for this.
UK - Politician Calls for Increased Support for Ukraine
🎦 20:59-22:48⏩
- Jonathan plays a clip of the Chair of the UK Defence Select Committee, Tobias Ellwood, being interviewed on Channel 4 News.
- Ellwood argues that Ukraine needs more support and highlights the ‘increasingly volatile and dangerous’ world, referencing the war in Ukraine, North Korea deploying troops to Europe, conflict in the Middle East and tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
- He argues that Ukraine should not be expected to defend itself ‘with one hand tied behind their back’ and that they should be able to use the support provided to them as they see fit, without restriction.
- Jonathan agrees with this statement and points out that the French ambassador to Ukraine has said that France does not care what Ukraine does with the weapons they provide.
UN - Guterres Calls for Decescalation
🎦 22:48-23:44⏩
- UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has urged all parties in the Ukraine conflict to de-escalate.
- Jonathan is frustrated with the UN’s stance. He feels that the UN has accepted Russia’s narrative and suggests that a better approach would be to remove Russia from the UN Security Council.
- Jonathan expresses concern over the situation in Georgia, where protests had begun, were subsequently broken up and have recently restarted, however, he is unsure of the details.
Serbia - Seeking Solutions on Gas Supplies
🎦 23:44-24:17⏩
- Serbia and Russia are looking for ways to keep gas flowing to Serbia, even with the new sanctions the US has placed on Gazprombank. Dušan Bajatović, the head of Srbijagas, has said that they are hoping for a change in stance from the new US administration.
- Jonathan is concerned by this and hopes that a Trump administration will not lift sanctions.
US - White House Response to Latest Missile Attacks
🎦 24:17-24:26⏩
- White House Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, has said that Russia’s recent missile attacks on Ukraine will not affect the US’ policy on Ukraine and that the US will continue to support Ukraine.
US - Tucker Carlson and Jill Stein
🎦 24:26-27:35⏩
- Jonathan is disgusted by recent comments made by Tucker Carlson.
- Carlson has revealed that he tried to arrange a meeting between Putin and Mike Johnson, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, before a vote on Ukraine aid.
- Carlson appears to have wanted the US to run major decisions past Putin before voting on them.
- Carlson has also told Glenn Greenwald that Ukraine being allowed to use ATACMS missiles to defend itself is ‘the most evil thing I’ve seen in my lifetime’.
- Jonathan is furious with Carlson, arguing that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the atrocities committed there are far more evil.
- Carlson appears to believe that Ukraine is a proxy of the US, and therefore allowing them to defend themselves using ATACMS is wrong.
- Carlson also feels that by allowing Ukraine to defend itself in this way, Biden is risking nuclear war.
- Jonathan is equally appalled by comments made by Jill Stein, former Green Party Presidential candidate.
- Stein has said that Ukraine needs to be disarmed so Putin can finish the job of massacring the rest of the population.
- Stein believes that the war in Ukraine was provoked by NATO and that Russia bears no responsibility for invading Ukraine.
- Jonathan is furious with Stein and urges her to read Putin's 2020 essay, in which he outlines his views on Ukraine and why he invaded.
- Jonathan feels that both Stein and Carlson may as well be the same person given their pro-Russia views.
US - Trump's NATO Ambassador Pick
🎦 27:35-28:25⏩
- Matthew Whitaker has been chosen to be the next US ambassador to NATO. NATO officials are uncertain about Whitaker, who is inexperienced in foreign policy. Some have commented that it ‘could have been worse’.
- Jonathan questions why this is seen as an acceptable approach - picking someone completely unqualified and inexperienced. It suggests a lack of seriousness.
US - Ben Hodges on Ukraine
🎦 28:25-29:16⏩
- General Ben Hodges has said that a bad deal for Ukraine is a bad deal for the US and its allies in Europe.
- Forcing Ukraine into a bad deal would:
- Damage economies as millions more refugees would flee Ukraine, continuing the disruption to grain and energy supplies.
- Make the US appear weak and unreliable.
- Embolden China
- Mean Trump would get the blame
- This is in response to news that Mark Rutte will be meeting Trump in the near future to discuss how to end the war. Rutte intends to persuade Trump that a bad deal for Ukraine will be as damaging for the US as it is for Europe.
US - Mark Rutte and Donald Trump
🎦 29:16-29:45⏩
- Rutte is well placed to have this conversation as he has previously stood up to Trump in public and gained his respect for doing so. This is one of the reasons Rutte was appointed NATO Secretary General.
US - Bill Clinton on Ukraine
🎦 29:45-30:44⏩
- Jonathan plays a clip of Bill Clinton talking about Ukraine.
- Clinton feels terrible about what is happening in Ukraine and feels personally responsible as he persuaded them to give up their nuclear weapons as part of the Budapest Memorandum in 1994. At the time, no one believed Russia would have invaded if Ukraine had kept hold of its nuclear weapons.
- Clinton believes that Putin was wrong to invade and that the US and Europe should continue to support Ukraine. He feels it’s up to Ukraine to decide the terms of any peace deal and that no one else should force them into accepting a deal.
- Jonathan agrees with Clinton’s assessment.
US - Potential Trump Administration Pick
🎦 30:44-32:10⏩
- Bill Kristol, editor-at-large of the Bulwark, has highlighted that Pete Hegseth is a potential pick for Secretary of Defence. Hegseth paid a settlement in 2020 relating to a sexual misconduct allegation dating back to 2017 when he was working as a Fox News anchor. His lawyer argued that if details of the allegation became public, Hegseth would lose his job at Fox.
- Jonathan questions why Hegseth should be considered for such an important role when it appears he may not be a suitable candidate for Fox News.
- Jonathan has covered Hegseth’s views on women in combat in a previous Military Aid video and believes that he would be a poor choice for Secretary of Defence.
- Jonathan is concerned about the anti-Ukrainian views held by some of those Trump is putting in place in his administration.
Wrap Up
🎦 32:10-32:14⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I wasn’t sure who was being interviewed in the clip from Channel 4 news. I initially thought it was Tammanjeet Singh Desi, but having listened to the clip, I don’t think this is correct. Could you please clarify who the interviewee is?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a long transcript - I'll create my plan step by step
I will start with TASK 1, extracting the title, date and part from the youtube video title provided.
For TASK 2, I will make a first pass of the transcript and create individual topic titles based on country/subject/category for greater granularity. I will ensure that each topic title is specific/quantified wherever possible.
Next, for TASK 3, I'll identify the timestamps associated with each topic using the format MM:SS or HH:MM:SS depending on the length of the video.
Once I have the topic titles and timestamps I can start TASK 4 and write a summary for each topic making sure to include Jonathan's insights and opinions where present.
Having listened to Jonathan's videos, I know that his sign off usually includes the phrase "that's enough from me", so I'll pay particular attention to this when identifying the "Wrap Up" topic.
For TASK 5 I will select an appropriate quote - I'll aim for something hard hitting as there's likely to be something given the geopolitical climate and Trump's election victory.
Finally, I'll complete TASK 6 making a note of anything I did not understand.
