Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I'm ashamed to be a Westerner...The fucking front line is crumbling left, right and centre. How dare you dilly and dally like this...Imagine these were your children being butchered out here. Put yourself in Ukrainian shoes for once. Get your act together, man."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:32⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new month of coverage and notes that Ukrainian General Staff reported 35,000 Russian casualties the previous month. He explains that, as always, caveats to this data can be found in the video description.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Report (30 June 2024): Significant Russian Losses
🎦 00:32-01:32⏩
Jonathan analyses the daily Ukrainian General Staff report on Russian losses, noting that personnel losses were around average, but tank (19) and armored personnel vehicle (26) losses were significantly higher. Artillery system losses were particularly heavy at 66, three times the average. Fuel tank losses were also very high at 70.
Return to top⤴️
Oryx/Perpetua Daily Report (30 June 2024): Ukrainian Losses Include Key Equipment
🎦 01:32-03:47⏩
Jonathan compares losses using Andrew Perpetua's analysis of visually confirmed losses via open source investigation (OSINT). This reveals a two-to-one loss rate in Russia's favour when looking at overall equipment losses (41 Russian to 20 Ukrainian) but only a 10 to 7 ratio for combat assets. Jonathan is concerned by the loss of Ukrainian electronic warfare equipment to Russian Krasnopol laser-guided artillery and Lancet loitering munitions, noting that these systems have been deployed more frequently in recent months.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Frontline Testimonies: Exhausted and Wounded Soldiers Ordered Back into Battle
🎦 03:47-06:14⏩
Jonathan highlights several testimonies from Russian soldiers complaining of exhaustion, injuries, and being ordered back into battle. One video shows two wounded brothers from the 1009th Regiment, injured in an unsuccessful assault on Vovchansk, appealing to the Russian President to intervene as their commander wants them to attack again despite their injuries. Jonathan sees this, along with other similar videos, as evidence that Russia is struggling to maintain an adequately sized and equipped fighting force.
Return to top⤴️
More Evidence of Heavy Russian Casualties and Use of Convicts
🎦 06:14-08:41⏩
- Jonathan presents more video evidence of demoralized Russian soldiers, including one claiming that only 4 out of his 350-strong unit survived.
- A video shows the morgue of Rostov-on-Don military hospital containing 13,691 dead from February 2022-May 2024.
- A female Russian prisoner of war claims that at least 17 women from her penal colony were sent to fight, contradicting the Russian Ombudsman.
Ukrainian Advances Near Terny: "Fields of Corpses" as Costly Russian Offensive is Reversed
🎦 08:41-11:54⏩
- Jonathan highlights Ukrainian advances near Terny, which Andrew Perpetua describes as "particularly embarrassing for Russia" as they are being pushed back from positions they suffered heavy losses to capture.
- Perpetua witnessed "fields of corpses" and over 200 destroyed Russian armored vehicles in the area.
- Jonathan and Perpetua advocate for the use of higher resolution satellite imagery by OSINT analysts to more accurately track Russian equipment losses.
Effectiveness of Motorbikes and Buggies: Mad Max Tactics Offer Unexpected Advantages
🎦 11:54-16:40⏩
- Jonathan revisits the use of motorbikes and golf carts by Russian forces, acknowledging that while seemingly desperate, these vehicles can offer tactical advantages.
- Military analyst CJ argues that motorbikes and buggies facilitate rapid movement across minefields and allow troops to quickly close the distance to enemy trenches during artillery suppression, minimizing their vulnerability.
- An article notes that these vehicles help conserve Russian armored vehicles and that their speed and agility pose a challenge for Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian Air Defence: Yak-52s and Shotguns - An Effective Solution?
🎦 16:40-18:10⏩
- Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian use of Yak-52 light aircraft armed with shotguns to counter Russian reconnaissance drones, an approach that conserves expensive anti-air missiles.
- He notes that one Yak-52 was credited with downing around 12 drones.
Russian Attacks on Civilians: Deliberate Targeting in Kherson and Elsewhere
🎦 18:10-19:46⏩
- Jonathan condemns Russia's deliberate targeting of civilians with FPV drones and IEDs, highlighting Andrew Perpetua's disgust at a video showing Russians repeatedly attacking a civilian with grenades after he made a rude gesture towards their drone.
More Russian Missile Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure
🎦 19:46-23:18⏩
- Jonathan reports on further Russian missile strikes on civilian targets, including a Novoposhchita sorting centre, Obolonsky district in Kyiv, and Dnipro. He believes the attacks on Novoposhchita facilities are part of a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
- Jonathan condemns retired US Colonel Douglas MacGregor for spreading Russian propaganda.
Explosions in Crimea and Belgorod: The "Missile Debris" Excuse Doesn't Add Up
🎦 23:18-25:10⏩
- Jonathan reports on a series of explosions and fires, including a missile strike in eastern Crimea that Russia claimed was only "debris". A fire also broke out in Krasnodar and there was a major power outage in Belgorod.
- A Ukrainian claim suggests drones hit a 500 kilovolt electrical substation in Stary Oskol, Belgorod.
Changes to Iranian Shahed Drone Tactics: Increased Altitude Poses New Challenges
🎦 25:10-26:06⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that Iranian Shahed drones are now flying at higher altitudes (1-1.5km) than before (100-200m), making them more difficult to shoot down with small arms and MANPADS. This forces the Ukrainians to use more expensive air defence systems.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Weapons Malfunctioning: High Number of "Friendly Fire" Incidents with Glide Bombs
🎦 26:06-27:49⏩
Jonathan discusses a Washington Post report revealing that at least 38 Russian glide bombs landed in Belgorod Oblast between April 2023 and April 2024, indicating a high failure rate. He criticizes how some media outlets were quick to blame Ukraine for these incidents and are slow to correct the narrative.
Return to top⤴️
Crimean Bridge Traffic: Ongoing Issues and the Risks of Holidaying in a War Zone
🎦 27:49-29:08⏩
Jonathan talks about traffic jams on the Crimean Bridge, attributing them partly to supposed cyberattacks and the start of the holiday season. He questions the wisdom of Russians vacationing in Crimea given the recent attacks on the peninsula.
Return to top⤴️
Western Media Bias: The Plight of Ukrainian POWs Ignored
🎦 29:08-30:06⏩
Jonathan highlights a comment from Dr. Vasilina Orlova, who criticizes Western media for ignoring the plight of Ukrainian prisoners of war who are returned from Russian captivity in an emaciated state. She argues that if the situation were reversed, there would be international outcry.
Return to top⤴️
Tribute to Pete Reed: Remembering a True Hero and His Passion for Ukraine
🎦 30:06-35:24⏩
- Jonathan pays tribute to Pete Reed, an American volunteer medic who recently died in Ukraine. He encourages viewers to donate to Project Constantine and the 67th Brigade in Reed's memory.
- He plays a clip of Reed expressing his anger and frustration at Western governments for not doing enough to help Ukraine, particularly during the slow period of weapons deliveries during the winter of 2022/2023.
- Jonathan echoes Reed's sentiments, saying that Russia's disinformation campaigns have had a corrosive effect on Western politics and made it more difficult to provide Ukraine with the support it needs.
Wrap up
🎦 35:24-35:24⏩
Jonathan ends the video without his usual sign-off.
Return to top⤴️
