Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
“Tell me exactly what I said that was misinformation or don’t fricking say it.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He notes that this video is a little later than usual due to “real life” getting in the way and apologises for this.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:18-05:17⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, pointing out that the numbers are lower than we've seen in recent days. This could be due to a lack of activity on the front lines potentially as a result of worsening weather conditions. He then analyses the data from Andrew Perpetua's list, noting the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses. Jonathan observes that many of the listed Russian losses are for older equipment. He also discusses Anton Gerashchenko's calculations of Russian losses based on Putin’s recent statements, suggesting significant losses for the Russians.
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Destruction of Russian T-90 Tanks on the Dnipro River
🎦 05:17-06:32⏩
Jonathan highlights footage of two Russian T-90M tanks being destroyed near the Dnipro River, one by an ATGM and the other by a drone. He emphasises the significance of these losses, as the T-90M is one of Russia's most modern tanks. Jonathan also discusses the claim that Ukrainian forces are using ATGMs from the west bank of the Dnipro to target Russian equipment on the east bank.
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Destruction of Russian Electronic Warfare System and Strelka 10 Air Defence System
🎦 06:32-08:15⏩
Jonathan reports on the destruction of a Russian Serp VS5 electronic warfare system near Donetsk, which is designed to counter drones. He notes this is a significant loss for the Russians. He also covers the destruction of a Russian Strelka 10 air defence system by a Ukrainian FPV drone. He reiterates his view that as long as Ukraine can maintain favourable ratios in terms of equipment and personnel losses, the war of attrition will work in their favour.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 08:15-09:29⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia launched four Shahed drones overnight, all of which were shot down by Ukrainian air defences. He questions whether the term "shot down" includes drones that are disabled by electronic warfare. He goes on to report on a Russian missile strike on Slovyansk, which damaged a ceramics factory, apartment buildings, and a kindergarten, though thankfully there were no casualties. Finally, he mentions an explosion in Sevastopol, Crimea, with the Russian-installed governor claiming it was due to military training exercises.
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Attack on Tuapse Oil Refinery
🎦 09:29-10:48⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the attack on the Tuapse oil refinery on the Black Sea, noting that it has halted production. This is the fourth attack on Russian energy infrastructure in a week. The refinery was reportedly targeted by Ukrainian drones, highlighting Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities. He references a comment from a viewer, "Tendar," who suggests that there are likely many attacks that go unreported.
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Explosion in Vyborg
🎦 10:48-11:26⏩
Jonathan reports on an explosion in Vyborg, Russia, a location he highlighted in a previous video as one of five Russian seaports with a major oil terminal. He shows footage of a large explosion and fire, suggesting that it could be another Ukrainian strike on Russian oil export infrastructure.
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Electronic Warfare Against Drones
🎦 11:26-12:45⏩
Jonathan revisits the topic of electronic warfare against drones, pointing to new evidence suggesting that at least three Shahed drones have been neutralized by Ukrainian EW systems. He describes this as a potential "game-changer," as it offers a cheaper and more sustainable alternative to using expensive missiles to counter these drones, but acknowledges the possibility of Russia developing countermeasures.
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Update on POW Exchange and IL-76 Crash
🎦 12:45-18:25⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the situation surrounding the Russian IL-76 plane crash and the planned POW exchange. He cites sources that question the validity of Russia’s claims regarding Ukrainian POWs being on board the aircraft. He points to a lack of evidence and transparency from the Russian side, including their refusal to grant access to international organisations for investigation. He also highlights the existing procedures for POW exchanges involving airlifts to Belgorod and the lack of confirmation that these were followed in this instance. He concludes by stating that if Ukrainian POWs were on board and Russia did not follow proper procedures or inform Ukraine, it would constitute a "severe war crime." He shares his anger at suggestions by some individuals that Ukraine may have targeted the aircraft, outlining the efforts Ukraine has consistently made to bring their soldiers home.
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Execution of Ukrainian POWs
🎦 18:25-19:31⏩
Jonathan shares disturbing reports of another potential Russian war crime, this time involving the execution of six Ukrainian POWs who had surrendered. He mentions seeing footage of the incident, which he says is just one of many examples of confirmed war crimes committed by Russian forces that have been caught on camera.
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New Water Pipeline Nearing Completion
🎦 19:31-19:55⏩
In some more positive news, Jonathan reports that a new water pipeline, intended to address the water shortages caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, is nearing completion. This new pipeline will supply drinking water to residents of four Ukrainian oblasts. Jonathan praises the Ukrainians’ efforts in working to overcome the challenges posed by the dam’s destruction.
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Labour Shortages and Economic Challenges in Russia
🎦 19:55-21:39⏩
Jonathan discusses a Bloomberg report highlighting the labour shortages faced by Russia due to the war. The invasion has created a situation where workers are being lured away by the military or seeking higher pay, leading to a tight labour market and potential economic challenges for Russia. Jonathan explains how this shortage could lead to inflation and impact Russia’s ability to ramp up its military production.
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Ukrainians Fleeing Russian-Occupied Territories
🎦 21:39-22:07⏩
Jonathan talks about the plight of Ukrainians fleeing Russian-occupied territories due to a number of factors including propaganda, forced conscription and threats. He highlights the challenges faced by those trying to leave, with only one operational border crossing between Ukraine and Russia remaining.
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Ukrainian Cyberattacks on Russia
🎦 22:07-22:34⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian hackers claim to have successfully targeted and destroyed the IT infrastructure of IPL Consulting, a Russian company specializing in implementing systems across various industries, including defence. He speculates on the potential impact of sustained cyberattacks on Russia's ability to function.
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Jonathan’s Rant
🎦 22:34-27:53⏩
Jonathan goes on a rant in response to a viewer's comment criticising him for discussing Donald Trump in a previous video. He expresses his frustration with accusations of "misinformation" and "hate speech" without any specific examples given, defending his right to discuss a variety of geopolitical topics on his own channel. He emphasises the importance of open discussion, hearing different perspectives, and being willing to challenge one’s own beliefs. He pushes back against the commenter’s attempt to dictate what content he can and cannot cover and asserts his right to share aspects of his personal life with his viewers, highlighting the sense of community fostered on his channel.
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Wrap Up
🎦 27:53-27:55⏩
Jonathan ends the video by saying goodbye to his viewers.
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