Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It's about matching that up with what's going on in terms of loss ratios. As long as the Ukrainians keep their losses minimal and exact to huge costs from the Russians, if that continues, then land is kind of secondary at this point in the war."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:01⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the New Year's Day frontline update. He announces a return to the normal schedule as his children are back in school, allowing him more time to focus on the channel. He expresses gratitude to JR for his dedication in providing map updates despite battling COVID. Jonathan encourages viewers to follow and support the primary source mapper, Andrew Perpetua, on Twitter and YouTube, highlighting the immense effort required for this task.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Front
🎦 01:01-01:26⏩
Jonathan begins by pointing out that there are no significant changes reported by his source mappers in the northeastern sector, from Kupyansk south to Kramina. He acknowledges he hasn't had time to delve into the ISW reports in detail due to the holiday season.
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Bakhmut Front
🎦 01:26-03:26⏩
Moving to the Bakhmut sector, Jonathan highlights a minor discrepancy between his map, based on older data from Andrew Perpetua, and a recent update from Surat Maps. He explains that this reflects a delay in updates rather than an actual change on the ground. The Russians appear to have paused their advance around northern Bakhmut and Avdiivka, potentially regrouping for a renewed offensive. Jonathan emphasizes that even small changes, like the Ukrainian advance near Boda Nivka five days prior, are noteworthy in this context.
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Southern Front
🎦 03:26-04:23⏩
Jonathan shifts focus south, where the Russians have made incremental gains. He points out that while Surat Maps mentions recent Russian success in recapturing a railway section near Andriivka, this was already reflected in previous updates. This suggests a slowdown in the fighting in this area. Jonathan emphasizes that securing Klishchivka and its surrounding heights is crucial for any significant Ukrainian advance south of Bakhmut. He also notes a minor Ukrainian gain near Holivka, again emphasizing the significance of even small changes.
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Avdiivka Front
🎦 04:30-07:26⏩
Turning to Avdiivka, Jonathan notes the Ukrainians are under pressure but have managed to hold the line. He emphasizes the strategic importance of preventing a Russian breakthrough at Stepova, which would further tighten the noose around Avdiivka. Jonathan reiterates his previous assessment that the situation in Avdiivka remains precarious, particularly if the Russians capture the coke plant or cut the main supply road. Despite facing artillery and ground assaults, the Ukrainians are putting up stiff resistance, leveraging their defensive positions within urban areas. The coming days will reveal if the Russians will continue their costly attritional warfare or seek alternative strategies.
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Marinka, Novo-Mykhailivka, and Vuhledar
🎦 07:26-10:23⏩
Jonathan points out there have been no changes in Marinka or Novo-Mykhailivka. He does however highlight footage emerging from those areas showcasing the 'road of death' where the Russians have lost significant military equipment. This, Jonathan explains, is consistent with what is being observed in other areas such as Avdiivka and Kupyansk. Moving further south past Vuhledar, Jonathan acknowledges the Russians have captured a significant swathe of territory, pushing up against the Surovikin defensive lines. He reassures viewers that this particular area, unlike Avdiivka, doesn't hold significant strategic importance and a Russian advance here shouldn't cause alarm. Jonathan notes a lack of Russian air activity in this area, questioning if it's due to fear of Patriot missile systems that were reported to have downed three Su-34s. He wonders if the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) will resume bombing campaigns given the amount of equipment they have lost recently.
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Analysis of Russian Losses and Ukrainian Strategy
🎦 10:23-11:46⏩
Jonathan reflects on the substantial losses of equipment and manpower the Russians have suffered during their recent offensive, noting that their artillery and rocket artillery attacks have decreased, likely due to dwindling supplies. He believes that if Ukraine can maintain its defensive lines and exploit any potential Russian missteps, the next few months could be advantageous for them. While Ukraine might cede some territory, the attrition inflicted on Russian forces would be a worthy trade-off. Jonathan reminds viewers that territorial gains should be assessed in conjunction with the overall loss ratios, suggesting that inflicting heavy losses on the Russians is paramount, even if it means sacrificing some ground.
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Wrap up
🎦 11:46-11:53⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers and signing off.
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