Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update

"As long as the Ukrainian flag waves over Russian territory, ceasefire talks are not going to happen."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a 4-day Ukraine War Front Line update for 22nd November 2024. He remarks that the volume of changes to the front line will be significant and highlights that there will be an increase in Russian pressure in all areas.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

General Front Line Observations

🎦 00:29-02:40⏩
Jonathan notes that, as mentioned in an earlier video, there has been a drop in the reported personnel and equipment losses across all categories. He hypothesises that this could be due to the weather. He cites a report from the Institute for the Study of War, which is summarised on his website atpgeo.com, confirming that a Ukrainian Brigade operating in the diverse direction have said that the worsening weather has hindered Russian infantry movements, making them vulnerable to drone strikes. Jonathan notes this will likely also impact the Ukrainians, and that the rain will likely turn into mud (Bezhdoryzhye or Rapotitsk) particularly in the East and North East, and to a lesser extent in Zaporizhia, which is flatter. He concludes that:

• Movement will be hindered
• There will be less drone activity meaning less reconnaissance
• Fewer manoeuvres as a result
• This could account for the lower reported losses
• Gains may be slower for the Russians.

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Kursk - Glushkovka

🎦 02:40-06:11⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians have pushed back the Ukrainians in the Glushkovka area to the West of the Kursk region near Veselya, with the front line now further forward according to Andrew Perpetua. He speculates that this has been a long time coming, and refers to comments by Andrew, Geek and others on the Tochny telegram channel that the Ukrainians made a mistake with the order of their attacks during the Khursk offensive. He explains that the Ukrainians attacked, waited and then attacked up at Glushkovka, concluding that the poor decision making is the reason why the Ukrainians have not made as much progress as they were hoping for in the region. He highlights the area on the map bordered by a river, which he thinks the Ukrainians could have easily taken. He expresses frustration that "alas, it didn't happen". Jonathan moves on to highlight some big changes in the area, explaining that there have been significant differences between the maps produced by Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps. He explains that Andrew Perpetua has now updated his map in line with Suriyak's, showing the Russian defensive line much further to the South East and that the difference is likely due to differing interpretations of what constitutes grey zone. He reminds viewers that the grey zone will be much further inward of Russian defensive lines and that the area looks larger than it is.

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Kursk - Spolna

🎦 06:11-08:01⏩
Jonathan reports a significant change in the Spalnoia area to the South East of the Kursk sector, with a significant amount of land now under Russian control. Similar to his earlier observations about Glushkovka, he suggests that this does not mean that the territory has been taken in the last four days but that new evidence suggests that the Russians have had control for longer. He goes on to say that Suriyak Maps shows that the Russians have been pushed back in the Plakovo area, which is good news for the Ukrainians as it demonstrates they are mounting an active defence of the area. He observes that the Ukrainians are under immense pressure in the region but notes (citing Kriegsforger) that the pressure is leading to high attrition rates for the Russians, with large numbers of vehicles and personnel being destroyed. Jonathan reports that Storm Shadow strikes have taken place in the area and that there are reports of North Korean casualties including a senior North Korean officer.

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Kursk - Storm Shadow Missile Footage

🎦 08:01-08:13⏩
Jonathan shows footage said to be of a Storm Shadow missile launched over Kursk.

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Kursk - Sudzha, Ceasefire and Trump

🎦 08:13-11:31⏩
Jonathan reports that, despite several major Russian offensives (citing Tendar), the Ukrainians are holding the Sudzha pocket in the east of the sector. He struggles to find Sudzha on the map, blaming his cold fingers. He describes it as a "slightly major town", which the Ukrainians fought hard to take control of. He mentions that there have been reports of activity in Martynivka recently. Jonathan reads a comment from Tendar about the situation in Sudzha:

• Ukraine controls approximately 670 square km of Russian territory in the area
• Newly formed Russian attack formations consisting of paratroopers and marines have sustained extremely high casualties in the area in recent weeks
• The presence of elite Russian troops in the region underlines the importance and urgency of the situation for Moscow
• Moscow is determined to retake the territory but has failed to do so
• The Kursk operation has been worthwhile as it makes it extremely difficult for Russia to cease operations and sue for a ceasefire
• The operation has been a "monumental embarassment" for Russia
• As long as the Ukrainian flag flies over Russian territory, ceasefire talks are unlikely.
• Ukraine is in a strong negotiating position
• Russia is being forced to allocate a large number of resources to the area, especially with the upcoming Trump inauguration in January.
• Putin is aiming for a ceasefire and is likely to throw a lot of Russian and North Korean troops into the "grinder" beforehand

Jonathan agrees with this assessment, noting that Putin's objective is to force Ukraine out of the region ahead of Trump's inauguration so that he can carve up Ukraine "on account of forced negotiations and thus appeasement" from the incoming administration.

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Kharkiv - North

🎦 11:31-13:23⏩
Jonathan announces he is moving away from Kursk to the North West, noting that he hasn't heard any updates about the small village the Russians are said to be in control of between Kursk and Kharkiv. He explains that there are two sectors north of Kharkiv - the first directly north from Lipsy to Kliobike and then onto Lukienci and the second around Vovchansk. He says that there is not much information about the Vovchansk sector, other than it appears that the Russians are under pressure. He moves on to talk about the Lipsy sector, stating that the Russians appear to be under pressure to the South East of Kliobike. He reports (citing "Grayscale reports") that the Ukrainians have regained territory near Ljubljana, highlighting the areas on the map. Andrew Perpetua's maps show that the Ukrainians are now in control of the area but Jonathan says he is not sure what's going on and describes the mapping as "funky", adding that the Russians are under increasing pressure, but that the Ukrainians have not taken a huge amount of land.

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Kupyansk - Svatove - Kreminna Axis

🎦 13:23-16:11⏩
Jonathan now looks at the North Eastern axis from Kupyansk to Svatove, down to Kreminna, noting that the Russians are having the most success in the Pischchane sector. He explains that they are moving north along the Oskil river in the hope of cutting off the entire area, attacking from the North and South. He remarks that it is interesting that Andrew Perpetua does not agree with Suriyak maps about what is happening to the East of the Oskil river in the Kupiansk area. Jonathan highlights the area of the map where Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak maps agree, which shows that Kolyznyvka, along the Oskil river towards Lushkivka, is now under Russian control. He zooms in to show the small amount of land taken which amounts to a few houses distant from the main Kuzhkivka sector. To the South of Pischchane, Jonathan explains that the Russians have made small gains, highlighting the area on the map to the West of Stelmakhivka, but adds that the gains are not huge, which gives him confidence that the Ukrainians might be able to hold the line. He notes that the weather is likely to be a major factor in the region due to the terrain and the fact there has already been snow in Kyiv and the UK.

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Kreminna - Serebiyanka Forest and other areas

🎦 16:11-17:18⏩
Jonathan reports that there are no mapping changes for Kreminna which is good news for the Ukrainians, He notes that there have been reports that the Ukrainians have advanced in the Serebiyanki forest, but then gets mixed up, thinking it's near Zaporizhia. He admits he needs to go back and change this later. Jonathan says he is surprised that there are no changes to report for the Chesivyar area (given what he has read from other sources) and observes that there have been no changes for Nevskye, Makiivka, Terny and Torske, where the Russians have been consistently advancing.

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Chasiv Yar

🎦 17:18-19:28⏩
Jonathan states that he is going to move south to Chasiv Yar, where the situation is looking challenging for the Ukrainians. He reports that the Russians are advancing marginally around Orokhovo-Vasylivka to the north according to Suriyak maps and that Andrew Perpetua is showing slightly larger Russian advances just north of Kalynivka. He explains that this is significant, as they are pushing further along the canal to the north of Hryhorivka and also to the West of the canal into the northern parts of Chasiv Yar. He expresses his concern about the situation, pointing out that the areas to the west of the canal are now under Russian control. He cites a comment from Tim White, who says "I'm afraid it looks bad for Ukrainian Chasiv Yar. Chesiv Yar, it's a very important higher town, effectively protecting Kostantynivka less than 10 kilometers away. Russia's troops are now virtually at the Adenhard Stadium, within meters of the town halls." Jonathan indicates these on the map. Jonathan then cites a comment from Military correspondent Boris Myroshnikov: "Ukraine is hanging on to one factory in the town. The reality is a few more aerial bombs will wipe it out. And the loss of Ukraine is serious strongholds in the town. Retreat seems inevitable, just a matter of when.” Jonathan says it's a fairly "dooming" report for Chasiv Yar and explains that the town is important because it protects Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, Lyman and Siversk, which Russia would like to retake. He expresses his hope that the Ukrainians will be able to hold on as they have had plenty of time to fortify the town since the fall of Bakhmut, which it was used as a staging post for. He concludes by saying that if it does fall, it will present a real challenge to settlements south of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

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Donetsk - Klishchiivka

🎦 19:28-19:57⏩
Jonathan reports that further down towards Klishchiivka, Suriyak maps claims that the Russians have made marginal gains along the canal, as they hope to take the rest of the pocket which Suriyak Maps claims is still under Ukrainian control.

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Donetsk - Toretsk and New York

🎦 19:57-20:55⏩
Jonathan moves on to the Toretsk and New York area, noting some changes in the middle and south of Toretsk, with slight gains for the Russians, including the stadium, which is now under Russian control according to Suriyak Maps. He highlights the differences in opinion between the two map makers about the area. He notes that the Russians are also advancing through the southern areas of Toretsk, with Andrew Perpetua agreeing with Suriyak that much of the area is now under Russian control. Jonathan says that this is "not looking good". He praises the Ukrainians for counterattacking in the area and keeping the Russians at bay but remarks that the situation can change very quickly. He suggests that Ukrainian troops in the region are likely to be exhausted and in need of replenishments.

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Velyka Novosilka - General Situation

🎦 20:55-21:43⏩
Moving further south, Jonathan suggests that whilst the situation around Prokrosk looks challenging for the Ukrainians, everywhere beneath it and along the Velyka Novosilka area is a "serious issue" for the Ukrainians. He points to a small area of Ukrainian control around Krasnohoryivka, adding that this may not be a counterattack, but a correction by Andrew Perpetua. He goes on to say that there have been some slight gains for the Russians along the North Western side of Prokrosk (according to Suriyak Maps), adding that this is good news for the Ukrainians as it means their main trench line is still intact.

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Velyka Novosilka - South of Shevchenko

🎦 21:43-23:51⏩
Jonathan reports small Russian advances near Sontsivka, to the south of Shevchenko, describing the gains as "industrial". He explains that the Russians are filling in the gaps to the north of Karlivka, in an effort to attack the town from both the North and East. He points to the Russian advances towards Danya to the south of Karlivka and reports that there is fierce fighting taking place in the area. Jonathan states that according to Ukrainian sources, they have been counterattacking to prevent the pincer movement from the West and that a camouflaged Leopard 2 tank took out an entire column of Russian vehicles. Jonathan remarks that one of the impressive things about the modern Western tanks supplied to Ukraine is their rate of fire, which has been demonstrated in several videos he has seen, and are more than capable of making "mincemeat" of advancing columns that do not have their own tanks. He adds that any tank is vulnerable to drone attacks. Jonathan concludes this section by saying that there is a lot of fighting taking place around Danya to prevent the Russians from attacking from the south.

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Velyka Novosilka - Karlivka

🎦 23:51-27:16⏩
Jonathan explains that the Ukrainians are using a trench line to the east of Karlivka, which runs to the Vodchya river reservoir, which prevents the Russians from attacking from the North, enabling them to focus their efforts on attacks from the East and South. He explains that if the Russians are able to get past the reservoir, this will make the situation much more difficult for the Ukrainians. Jonathan changes to a topographical map to show viewers the terrain in the area. He struggles to find the locations, as the spellings are in Ukrainian and then locates Karlivka, highlighting the two reservoir areas split by a causeway, pointing out where the Russians are advancing to the West. To the south, he highlights where the Russians have the high ground advantage to the north and south of Ukrainian positions. Returning to his usual map, Jonathan explains that the settlements in the area are located along a river up to Uspenivka, where he expects there will be heavy fighting. He systematically identifies the settlements in the area - Illinka, Romanivka, Hannivka, Vasylivka, Trudove (to the south) - highlighting the areas on the map where the Russians are applying pressure from the north and south. He points out where he thinks Uspenivka is located, and then Antonivka, which has been taken by the Russians. Jonathan concludes that the Ukrainians are "holed up" in settlements on the low ground in a difficult situation, as the Russians have the high ground advantage.

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Velyka Novosilka - Summary

🎦 27:16-28:17⏩
Jonathan summarises the situation in the Velyka Novosilka region, stating that the Russians are closing in on the Ukrainians, that they are attempting to take control of the whole area, and that they are advancing from the east (where they have been able to move so far north) rather than the south as he was expecting. He identifies where the front line used to be before the Russians advanced north and west, taking huge amounts of land and concludes that they will be in a position to march on Velyka Novosilka very soon.

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Velyka Novosilka - Ukrainian Counter Attacks

🎦 28:17-29:42⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainians have made a couple of small gains, highlighting the areas around Rivnopil and Cherubyanky. He finds it difficult to locate the areas on the map because the front lines have changed so much, but eventually locates Cherubyanky and Rivnopil.

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Velyka Novosilka - Hrodivka

🎦 29:42-31:23⏩
Jonathan reports another small Ukrainian gain further north near Hrodivka in the area of the tailings heaps. He eventually locates the area, to the north west of Hulyaipole and points out a couple of tailing heaps, confirming that this is the area where the Ukrainians have pushed back.

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Wrap Up

🎦 31:23-32:12⏩
Jonathan summarises the situation:

• Russians are making significant gains in the South East of the front line
• Ukraine is holding on
• Kursk is causing the Russians problems and attrition
• Slowdown in Russian advances in the Kupyansk-Svatove area
• Uptick in Russian activity in the Toretsk and New York area
• Worrying situation in Chasiv Yar

He ends by asking viewers for their thoughts.

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